No idea. Would need to see a breakdown by age.
Didn’t Ma do reallly well with female voters ?
I don’t apologize for thinking the Tsai government did well given the hand it was given (dealing with Trump and Xi at the same time; dealing with a pandemic). I’ve said it before: she’s the best Taiwanese president I’ve seen and the best since Lee Teng-hui.
I’m agnostic on Lai and want to see more before I make up my mind. Does that mean I am hanging with folks that didn’t finish elementary school? 
Guy
Why do you think the dpp is doing so well with the over 40s and least educated and so poorly with the young and educated?
He smashed his opponents, and was very good at elections. He never lost.
So now (take a breath) think about the TPP. Do they really have a path with Ko in charge? And do they have an identity without him?
Guy
Tsai is a good stateswoman and a decent president, I agree
I don’t have a dog in the fight. I’m just saying it like it is. The dpp is unpopular with young people.
As per the chart above, the DPP are currently more popular than the KMT in all age groups. If this doesn’t shift, there’s no path for Hou either.
Guy
No idea and I don’t really care. I just think it’s good for Taiwan to have a third party and move on from cross straits politics dominating elections
Oh I think he has been a decent mayor for Taipei. There is dissonance between his weird press conferences and comments and his performance as technocrat and leader. The latter I think he does quite well, which is the reason he has supporters
He says incredibly sexist stuff. I doubt he’s make it as a President in Taiwan. Maybe he could try the US where there seems to be a market for this.
I’m off to work. Nice chatting with you @OrangeOrganics . We’ll see how this plays out . . .
Guy
Too early to say and just a single poll. Things are changing week by week. Hou was leading a month ago.
That data is almost meaningless unless you use it as an inference point in the general trends
Was listening to this
Said that kmt does bad in polling as people don’t like to publicly say they will vote for kmt. Same as for Trump supporters. They have done polls well only 17% say they will vote KMT even though you know that can’t possibly be true. DPP voters are much more likely to be vocal and say they will vote dpp in telephone polls
I’m not sure. He is very popular with the young and educated. A lot of people have good things to say about him
You could, but that would mean @afterspivak is really good at tracking down people, since there aren’t that many middle aged women who didn’t finish elementary school in Taiwan, most of the people who didn’t finish elementary school are probably in their 70s now. Unless that’s still middle aged in your definition.
Well people over the age of 40.
The point is that would be the same ridiculous and odd aspersion as @afterspivak tried to make.
That’s definitely true. Without the aggregated analysis, you would even see Korean Fish projected to be near 25 points behind Tsai in some individual polls back in 2020. Although the aggregated polls all showed that Korean Fish was behind Tsai by 18 points and he ended up 18 points behind in the election result.
By the way, just 30 years ago the situation was reversed, and 20 years ago I’d say it was about even.
Good post! Historically people would be afraid to say to anonymous pollsters that they actually preferred the DPP. The shadow of White Terror was still covering their lives, even as Taiwan had at least officially moved into a new era.
Guy
The #metoo movement is still going. The court has ruled that KMT legislator Chen Xuesheng committed sexual harassment against Fan Yun, and has to pay her 80K, which honestly isn’t a lot of money at all.
At the time Fan Yu and a bunch of other KMT legislators were occupying the speaker seat for some reason, and Chen went behind her and shoved his body against Fan’s butt repeatedly. When Fan told him he was harassing her, Chen retorted that he’s only pressing his belly against her butt, and you can’t get pregnant from the belly.
Meanwhile, two other women stepped out and said the TMD mishandled their report of sexual harassment. They are a pair of sisters and both of them were working for TMD’s 2014 campaign. A man known as H repeatedly harassed them verbally, including saying things like “I want to eat Sister Don”, and “The older sister is pretty, but the younger sister has bigger bust size”. When the woman confronts H, H became verbally abusive, and started spreading rumors about her. She wanted to report directly to Ke Wenzhe, but was stopped by her superior and told that he would relay her report to Ke. However, when a mediation meeting was arranged, the woman was told that Ke said he doesn’t want to get involved. Instead, she received a reluctant apology from H at the mediation meeting. Ke is currently in Japan, and once again said that all reports will be handled as long as actual names and evidence are presented.
Admittedly, the sample is biased. Mostly he is disliked, by those I mentioned, for how he tried to tinker with English education, leaving some very frustrated schools who are still trying to cope with unreasonable expectations. Others might find him appealing for the same reasons (pushing the bilingual agenda, for example).
Now contrast this with Hou as mayor of New Taipei. Can anyone name anything that this man has actually done there? I am not being facetious; I simply cannot see anything visible to the human eye. Maybe there is a bunch of awesome stuff that I simply don’t know about. 
Guy
This new wave of #metoo is still going on.
Six women filed reports saying they were harassed by the same person, and this has been going on for 5 years. However, both the previous and the current Taipei city administrations failed to react. The offender is a 60 year old guard, and he would choose when the victims were alone in the office to harass the victims by inappropriate touching or verbally harassing them. The victims’ reports were either ignored, or instead get asked why didn’t they unlock the doors and leave themselves. Several of them had to quit to avoid being harassed.
Hou is nice, works well with people, doesn’t have strong ideological stance, seen as good with emergencies. Just a decent guy who is reliable, gets on with people and doesn’t make mistakes
And that’s kind of it. I have a journalist friend here who says he will fall apart in debates
There is a lot of talks of kmt changing him.
I think all the candidates are a bit weak. And I’m sure more scandals are still to come, so who knows?