Yeah it’s a good piece.
A lot of people said Hou’s initial speeches were empty
It’s quite harsh because political campaign has only just started. Hou’s satisfaction rates as a mayor are super high and he has a good reputation
It’s a mixture of him possibly not suited to presidential election and I think mainly factional infighting in the KMT
The latter is the most on-brand think for the KMT, from the Xinhai Revolution to present day
Part 2 of Smith’s look at Hou’s woes is now up.
Can Hou turn things around and win this election? Yes, of course, the seven months until election day is an eternity in politics.
But Hou is digging himself deeper and deeper into a ditch that will get harder and harder to get himself out of. The longer he stays last in the polls, the more the perception will set in that he is destined to lose and voters see it as a contest between Lai and Ko.
Hou has to campaign for president, not mayor. Mayors largely deal with mundane issues, presidents with existential issues, and voters, for very good reason, expect a lot more from them.
So far, Hou’s whole approach to his campaign has been lackadaisical. He comes across as detached and even indifferent, so much so that people have been asking me if he even wants to be president.
Guy
Increasingly, I’ve been wondering the same thing.
If gets to October and still in third place, some blue supporters will support TPP to keep green out, as will see lesser of two evils. The kmt must be worried about this and know they need to change things quickly
Right there is everything wrong with first past the post, and exactly why Taiwan’s democracy is fragile, and exposed to Chinese manipulation.
Yes fptp is shit
According to Smith, there are attempts underway to bring together Han’s fans and Hou’s people. Good luck with that, as the former are still angry at the latter for not going all out to support Han during his presidential run in 2020.
Guy
I thought Hou was smart at the time for staying away from Han
If the KMT come third, they will basically implode
This happened in the 2000 presidential race, remember. Somehow the KMT staggered on.
Guy
I didn’t know Taiwan News and good piece could be intertwined. 
Clearly you did not read the great William Stanton’s regular column on that platform.
I’d glad read Stanton’s take on things on any platform. 
Guy
Taiwan news has the shittest UI I’ve ever seen
Yeah that’s the trend, KMT collapsed so quickly
Think the main reason is classic kmt factional infighting than anything Hou has done though.
I think both factors are at play—or more precisely, the factional infighting and what Hou has not done (that it, hit the ground running with a proper election team, social media outreach, platform, command of presidential issues, and so on).
I imagine the drugged-kids-in-Xinbei story has not helped him either. 
Guy
Gou has split the vote and none of the famous KMT stars have stood with him till recently.
He has been consistently one of the most popular politicians in Taiwan (not many) for years now, crazy how campaign just fell apart
But yeah also hasn’t helped himself
Have you been to Xinbei? Do you see any material basis for his popularity? Maybe it’s there, maybe it just eludes my fading eyesight . . .
Guy
I am not a Taiwanese voter so don’t know. I think most cities in taiwan are abysmally run so can’t give a proper judgement
His reputation is as a competent technocrat who gets along with people and is clean and straightforward. I don’t know if that it is true or not, but the data shows that he has been well liked for years
