The Biden Taiwan & China Thread

With the election cycle soon to be behind us, how will a President Biden handle Taiwan and China? Let’s discuss.

“I’ve been told that if you close your eyes, you might not be able to tell the difference” between the Biden and Trump trade agendas, said Nasim Fussell, former Republican trade counsel at the U.S. Senate Finance Committee. “Biden’s not going to be quick to unravel some of these tariffs.”

Former Trump and Obama administration trade officials say that in order to roll back tariffs on Chinese goods, Biden would likely demand the same basic concessions from China that Trump did: curbing massive subsidies to state-controlled firms, ending policies that force U.S. companies to transfer technology to Chinese counterparts, and opening its digital services markets to U.S. tech firms (another big Biden donor constituency).

Perhaps most interestingly:

Biden is not seen likely to try to revive the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the 12-country Pacific Rim trade deal negotiated by the Obama administration but abandoned by Trump in 2017.

Instead, reforming the badly damaged World Trade Organization with new rules against subsidies and other non-market practices is viewed as a bigger priority.

Biden is the worst possible outcome for Taiwan.

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I’m looking at leaving Taiwan. It makes no sense to stay here to wait for an inevitable takeover by China.

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I have my concerns about Biden given his history and the fact that he was allowed to not provide substantive foreign policy positions during the election cycle, but it seems that there’s an effort to convey the message that his China policies aren’t going to be all that different from Trump’s, at least to start, with the exceptions being less tweeting and more attempted alliance building.

While analysts say much of the detail of future China policy will depend on who Biden names to key positions, the focus on rebuilding bruised alliances will be a fundamental tenet.

Contenders for top positions and Biden himself stress that to work, the approach must be underpinned by domestic investment to ensure a U.S. competitive edge over China in key technologies such as quantum computing, artificial intelligence and 5G.

Michele Flournoy, a hawkish contender for defense secretary, has warned that the economic damage caused by the pandemic mean future defense budgets will be flattened or worse, while stressing the need for U.S. forces to be able and willing to carry through on any deterrent threat.

“If the U.S. military had the capability to credibly threaten to sink all of China’s military vessels, submarines, and merchant ships in the South China Sea within 72 hours, Chinese leaders might think twice before, say, launching a blockade or invasion of Taiwan,” she wrote in the June edition of Foreign Affairs.

Alliance building with China over the last decade or two is what’s got everyone into this big mess in the first place.

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I don’t disagree, but at the same time, China’s relationship with other countries has deteriorated too.

So I’m not sure it’s safe to assume that just because countries like Germany, China and Australia were unwilling to stand up to China’s behavior in the past, they will be willing to do so now. The world has changed and their words at least indicate they recognize this.

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He wont. Prepare early.

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Not sure the swamp would care if China marched in, but I am sure they would use Taiwan as a pawn in the game.

That was a risk with Trump too.

China loves Trump because they know how to handle him. Basically he is a loose cannon and it makes cross straight relationship politically interesting. Let’s hope Biden will change that and perhaps China will be more restrained. From what I heard it seems China is offering peace after the spate of fly bys.

I think they know fun day is over.

:rofl: Anything but inevitable. Taiwan’s too valuable to lose.

If Taiwan falls, America’s days are numbered.

I hope America thinks so.

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Remember how America took down the Japanese empire… by island hopping. If Taiwan goes it will be a first in a chain of islands America will lose in the future. Plus once Taiwan goes America’s hegemonic influence is pretty much finished. No one will trust them to keep the peace anymore.

cough middle east

Different enemy, i get it . China is actually a formidable foe, not just a resource.

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Good luck with that.

Hopefully the Chinese takeover is non-violent.

My guess under Biden the answer will stink of the Báizuǒ as the Chinese call them. Perceived as weak in China.

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I’m going to give him a chance. I think the current overall climate should raise concern for China all around the world. I don’t think Biden will not see China as a possible threat to the US or Taiwan, but I worry he will still believe and operate with the idea that China will change and have some desire for international cooperation. They don’t and they won’t change for the better anytime soon.

I don’t believe Taiwan is in any immediate threat. But long term, I think Biden needs to take serious steps pushing back against China and not appeasing them. China will be this century’s Nazi Germany. You can not appease people who want world domination. They will not stop building islands, claiming territory, and they certainly won’t stop after Taiwan.

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A forested wetland surely wouldn’t care.

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