I personally do not put much eggs in the China will collapse basket as it’s been predicted for the last 2 decades with the Chinese coming out stronger each time there’s bumps on the road.
However, it’s hard to ignore there are multiple major issues that could potentially lead to some sort of collapse of an authoritarian government.
Not only has FDI and manufacturing dropped significantly. Housing market is looking like a disaster of its own. Unemployment and particularly youth unemployment is over 20% now. It’s so bad the CCP has decided to not publish the numbers indefinitely.
Is this the start of a collapse of the CCP or will they find a way around it?
20% youth unemployment does traditionally result in … unrest. However I suspect the CCP has such a tight hold on security - you can’t fart without them knowing what you had for dinner yesterday - that this is a lot less likely than it would be elsewhere.
They’ll most likely try to appease the disgruntled yoof with some sort of financial support. Or perhaps invent the “next stage” of revolution, present some new class enemy, and draft them into an upgraded version of the armed forces.
I saw this video saying that most transitions to democracy happens when more that 40% of the population are middle class. This is what happened in Taiwan and Korea.
I’m not exactly sure about that conclusion. The situation in Taiwan and Korea were very different to most countries in the world, since they both heavily depended on the US for military protection and economic growth. Not alienating the American public was a matter of survival.
The only way for China to become democratic back in 1989 was for Deng Xiaoping to say I’ll meet with student leaders and slowly implement their demands for reform. Even if in an alternate universe where 50% of Chinese people were middle class when Tiananmen square happened, no democracy would have survived Order 64.
Taiwans path to democracy is indeed very unique in not only its success but how it happened. Very rarely would the ruling party believe they would be better off and with more legitimacy with the confidence they would not only survive but thrive allowing opposition to run in a fair election.
I think as long as they hold all the cards, which they do, they’ll continue to find ways around. If anything, loyalty to the party will become stronger, since that and social credit will be needed for a comfortable life
The party doesn’t need people with low social credit scores, and doesn’t mind killing people who protest. As long as the CCP controls most of the military, now stacked with Xi loyalists, they can crush anything less than a sudden and massive uprising which is unlikely
If the economy tanks so bad the whole thing falls apart, that’s a problem. The things we’re seeing now might lead to that, but probably won’t. If the military is otherwise occupied in Taiwan, that makes protest easier, especially if only sons and especially press ganged ones start disappearing in large numbers.
I see these economic problems as good news for us in Taiwan, but bad for the global economy
Let me ask you this. Who replaces current CCP “leadership”? If your answer is anything other than some other CCP whatever, I am interested in hearing your thoughts Even with regime changes, even the biggest ones with civil wars, the end result is basically still the same level of tyranny. Pink fluffy nazi, black death metal nazi. Same shit, different smell. well, still same smell, just a different logo.
Even with regime changes, even the biggest ones with civil wars, the end result is basically still the same level of tyranny. Pink fluffy nazi, black death metal nazi. Same shit, different smell. well, still same smell, just a different logo.