But people have been saying China will collapse for as long as I remember and they kept on going.
The biggest problem is their declining birth rate. That’s not unique to them but their problem is significantly more serious for the younger generation because of a few things below
1 child policy has doomed the younger generation to be care takers of 2 people per person.
This is made worse by the reality that Chinese people don’t really have the same ability to put their capital to work for the future retirement. Most of the largest companies are state owned and you can’t invest into what would be a safer assets like you would anywhere else.
Housing collapse and fake gdp building useless infrastructure that’s a net negative long term has exacerbated this problem as that was a way to invest and one day have asssets to retire with but now it’s gone
Job market is bleak, not unique to them, but it’s also adding to this time bomb of population collapse
What’s so dumb about China is they can’t just say we won’t have any caps on children because they would have to admit the 1 child policy was a mistake. So instead of some parents maybe just having 5 kids because they want to, they can’t.
The three child policy has been in place for a few years now, replacing the two child policy that replaced the one child policy. Many provinces offer subsidies and other financial incentives to parents to encourage them to have more kids.
I know. That’s what I’m saying. Why would you possibly cap it at 2 and then 3 when you have a declining birth rate. They would have to admit the policy were a failure.
I dont think its very far fetched to say there has to be a change at some point. A swing in the opposite direction.
Xi won’t last forever. And he’s not just gonna hand power down like North Korea. People can remember the better times before xi took over and took a dump on the place so its not like people wont want to go back to something more prosperous when the chance comes.
It’s not that simple, it varies by province with many having no cap on the number of children you can have but you only get the incentives up to a certain number.
The policy wasn’t a failure. It actually had little effect, as did Indira Gandhi’s sterilization programme. Women in developed/developing countries all over the world have a dropping birthrate whether the government encourages it or forbade it- witness Taiwan.
Read this article today. Long but quite good in my opinion. I find this article quite good in detailing possible logic and principles/policies by which the PRC might govern Taiwan. Of course, comparisons made with Hong Kong but mostly tries to explain the background (related to internal political mechanisms in PRC) of how China might approach reunification.
Labour mobility is treated similarly. [86] Employment opportunities, professional accreditation, and career advancement pathways linked to the mainland are viewed as mechanisms for reshaping incentives, particularly among younger and mid-career professionals. Economic integration in this sense is not merely about jobs, but about embedding individuals within institutional and social networks aligned with PRC authority. The Fujian demonstration zone’s provisions for Taiwan residents, which include public housing, healthcare enrolment, and educational access on terms equivalent to mainland residents, represent the operational form of this policy, with a goal of converting material benefits into institutional attachment.
Yes. Look at the map. The PRC is huge. At least ROC is already a Mandarin speaking island, which is predominantly Han Chinese. Governance would not be an issue. If the US and Japan were prepared in advance to contest a hostile military takeover, then it becomes more of a tossup. But just governance would not be an issue at all.
The PRC would like it more if it was theirs. Look at Hong Kong, it actually has changed a lot, and the Chicos are very happy with the way things are going there. Why would they not prefer to fully control the ROC and the Taiwan straight as a Chinese lake and TSMC and all of the semiconductor infrastructure as well as the ASML the lithography machines that are currently on the island and get back to Beijing the imperial treasures that are at the national Museum in Taipei and so on and so on and so on.
The rest of the world prefers the status quo because that’s the easiest thing for the rest of the world sure
But it’s not really. Because North Korea and the PRC are two very different places. Why not also consider the Vietnam comparison?
They could, and they would logistically be easier, but it might give reasons for countries like the United States to make formal commitments or proceed immediately with economic sanctions. So there is also a strong argument for the PRC to just take the whole thing in one fell swoop. And that way, they don’t have to worry about future developments and they can get a lot more bang for their buck when it comes to the sanctions another backlash.
Would the PRC be able to govern a hostile people on an island? Or would it end up being a humanitarian crisis (not that the world has conveniently become normalized to the PRC’s humanitarians crises?)
Could you tell a people who have gotten used to democratic voting to kowtow? I’m not too sure but okay…you might be correct.
Yes the PRC would also like a weak Japan and India while we’re at it. The PRC for all their flaws are quite pragmatic. Would the PRC be willing to pay the price for occupation should something happen today even though nothing has changed? Or is the PRC so eager to occupy the island of and around Taiwan that they would launch an amphibious invasion?
The rest of the world would yes prefer world stability over anything. I mean…Taiwan ROC is 20 million people and the Chinese civil war is still ongoing so…
They are two different places but there is an inherent understanding that a certain balance needs to be maintained. If North Korea implodes and South Korea (with all its American bases) touches the Chinese border…it would also destabilize the region, right?
Vietnam is not the same because the Commies won and took over the whole thing. Had the Nationalists won then the conversation would have been different.
Yes the PRC could try to take the whole thing…but could they? The PRC are not combat tested, their high tech equipment didn’t work in Iran, and an amphibious assault is very complicated. It would also not be a surprise assault thanks to GPS today.
So all in all…the best the PRC can hope for is the status quo…and that’s the best the ROC can expect as things stand. As long as the ROC doesn’t get too uppity and start declaring independence then the best case scenario for everyone is what exists today.
now it’s gone
