But people have been saying China will collapse for as long as I remember and they kept on going.
The biggest problem is their declining birth rate. That’s not unique to them but their problem is significantly more serious for the younger generation because of a few things below
1 child policy has doomed the younger generation to be care takers of 2 people per person.
This is made worse by the reality that Chinese people don’t really have the same ability to put their capital to work for the future retirement. Most of the largest companies are state owned and you can’t invest into what would be a safer assets like you would anywhere else.
Housing collapse and fake gdp building useless infrastructure that’s a net negative long term has exacerbated this problem as that was a way to invest and one day have asssets to retire with but now it’s gone
Job market is bleak, not unique to them, but it’s also adding to this time bomb of population collapse
What’s so dumb about China is they can’t just say we won’t have any caps on children because they would have to admit the 1 child policy was a mistake. So instead of some parents maybe just having 5 kids because they want to, they can’t.
The three child policy has been in place for a few years now, replacing the two child policy that replaced the one child policy. Many provinces offer subsidies and other financial incentives to parents to encourage them to have more kids.
I know. That’s what I’m saying. Why would you possibly cap it at 2 and then 3 when you have a declining birth rate. They would have to admit the policy were a failure.
I dont think its very far fetched to say there has to be a change at some point. A swing in the opposite direction.
Xi won’t last forever. And he’s not just gonna hand power down like North Korea. People can remember the better times before xi took over and took a dump on the place so its not like people wont want to go back to something more prosperous when the chance comes.
It’s not that simple, it varies by province with many having no cap on the number of children you can have but you only get the incentives up to a certain number.
The policy wasn’t a failure. It actually had little effect, as did Indira Gandhi’s sterilization programme. Women in developed/developing countries all over the world have a dropping birthrate whether the government encourages it or forbade it- witness Taiwan.
Read this article today. Long but quite good in my opinion. I find this article quite good in detailing possible logic and principles/policies by which the PRC might govern Taiwan. Of course, comparisons made with Hong Kong but mostly tries to explain the background (related to internal political mechanisms in PRC) of how China might approach reunification.
Labour mobility is treated similarly. [86] Employment opportunities, professional accreditation, and career advancement pathways linked to the mainland are viewed as mechanisms for reshaping incentives, particularly among younger and mid-career professionals. Economic integration in this sense is not merely about jobs, but about embedding individuals within institutional and social networks aligned with PRC authority. The Fujian demonstration zone’s provisions for Taiwan residents, which include public housing, healthcare enrolment, and educational access on terms equivalent to mainland residents, represent the operational form of this policy, with a goal of converting material benefits into institutional attachment.
now it’s gone
