The Fate of the People’s Republic of China

Politics International Politics
1

Peter Zeihan, reputed geopolitical analyst says the PRC will face events that will bring it down by the end of this decade.

Demographic issues from the one child policy are putting strain on the workforce and social expectations

Geographic issues from being constrained to having everything essential imported such as oil, gas, food and semi conductors

Economic issues from having close to a billion people living on less than $280 a day to losing its place as the manufacturing hub of the world.

But hey…is the PRC on the rise? Is China still in a top spot? Or is it a dying giant that is staying quiet about its inevitable demise?

And is Taiwan safe as China changes? Or will it be another Russia Ukraine situation as the once mighty power starts to die out?

Or will China supercede the US and become the worlds next superpower?

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Not sure he’s that “reputed” but he’s been harping about the collapse of the PRC since 2010 or so.

What currency is that in?! US$280 a day in China would but you well in the upperclasses in the majority of China! If there’s a billion people on less than that then this implies there rest are on more than that! 400 million people earning more than US$280 is impressive!

So the PRC is either going to die out or lead the world? I predict it will be somewhere in between those two massively different predictions.

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Aye he has…but to just credit he says that just because something is inevitable doesn’t mean it’s imminent.

It’s like looking at a Weather map and predicting weather that will happen in a year.

That pays the rent barely. You don’t live on that in China…

How many German cars do you think the Chinese can buy?

We can both agree that China itself isn’t going anywhere. The PRC is the government entity ruling the whole place.

Will they still be ruling the whole place in the next four years or will they fracture?

That’s the question…will their role as an influential threat to the US still prevail or will that whole thing be replaced with another country or countries that are indeed another middle economies?

The next three kingdoms?

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That’s totally implausible!

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Clause AI info:

Here’s what the data shows for 2025 (the most recent full year):
Per capita median disposable income (annual):
The nationwide median per capita disposable income in 2025 was 36,231 yuan — about 83.5% of the average. Urban residents had a median of 51,115 yuan, while rural residents had a median of 20,711 yuan.
Converting to daily household income in USD:
The average exchange rate for 2025 was approximately 7.14 RMB to 1 USD. China’s average household size is roughly 2.5–2.6 people.
So for a nationally typical (median) household:
• Annual per capita: 36,231 yuan ÷ 7.14 ≈ $5,074 USD per person
• For a ~2.5-person household: ~$12,685/year
• Daily household income: ~$35 USD/day
Breaking it down by urban vs. rural:
• Urban household (~2.4 people): ~$47/day
• Rural household (~2.7 people): ~$22/day
Important caveats:
• This is disposable income (after taxes), not gross income.
• The true modal (most common) income would likely be lower than the median, since income distributions in China are right-skewed — many people cluster toward lower incomes while higher earners pull the average and even median upward.
• Regional disparities are enormous: a Shanghai household earns several times what a rural Gansu household does.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

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“[B]ecause something is inevitable desn’t mean it’s imminent.”

They’e been talking about Jesus’s return for 2000 years …any day now!

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Yes you may be right…but China still has close to billion people living on less than $280 dollars a day…

That’s a lot of poor people…

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He’s been predicting it for over 16 years.

You would live very well in China on US$280 a day, what planet are you on?!

They bought almost 4 million last year, and that was a bad year. The Germans themselves bought just under 3 million cars last year, about 70% being German brands so the Chinese are buying more German cars than the Germans. What’s your point?

If by “both” you mean you and Zeihan, then probably, otherwise

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What? Wasn’t your question

You’re confusing yourself.

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It depends on what data is used then lol.

Who says he hasn’t returned and just went fishing? :wink:

But all jokes aside..the dynasty ruling China has tended to last around 80 years before collapsing.

Has the PRC solved it?

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So you can pay your monthly rent with a couple of day’s work?

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LOL

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No of course not..but I’m not stuck to eating ramen noodles daily to have a place to sleep either…let alone buy foreign goods

Here is what I found.

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I mean think about it…

China has more people that can’t afford their basic needs than the whole of Europe.

What can you possible do with that.

we haven’t even talked about how the wealthy are scrambling to take their wealth out of the place

We also need to remember that Mao Zedong came from the poor regions…

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There is clearly a very skewed income pattern indeed

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The Qin was shortest, lasting only15 years. But most were a few hundred.

Of course, those are the historical imperial ones, not political of last last century or so

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Does Xin count?

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China’s economy expanded 5.0% year-on-year in Q1 2026, driven by strong manufacturing and a 14.9% surge in foreign trade during early 2026, though domestic consumption remains weak. While 2025 growth held at 5.0%, projections suggest a slight slowdown to 4.4%–4.7% in 2026 due to real estate slumps, trade tensions, and deflationary pressures. World Bank Group

Key Economic Statistics (2025-2026)

GDP Growth Rate (Q1 2026): 5.0% year-on-year.

GDP Projection (2026 Full Year): Predicted ~4.4%–4.7%.

GDP Growth (2025): 5.0%.

Nominal GDP (2026 Estimate):

Foreign Trade (Jan-Apr 2026): 16.23 trillion yuan, a 14.9% increase year-on-year.

Recent Economic Performance & Trends

Manufacturing Surge: To counter real estate downturns, Beijing has accelerated manufacturing, leading to a massive trade surplus.

Trade Relations: Trade with ASEAN countries and Belt and Road partners has grown, helping mitigate higher tariffs from the US, which increased to 130% on some goods.

Consumption Patterns: Domestic consumption remains slow; retail sales saw inconsistent growth, rising slightly in early 2026 before weakening again in March.

Sector Performance: Service consumption is growing, with holiday tourism spending up 6.44% in early May 2026.

Jobless Rate: Stood at 5.1% in late 2025/early 2026.

Long-Term Outlook

China is on track to become a high-income nation, with 2025 per capita GNI close to the World Bank’s high-income threshold.

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So you think China is gonna stert booming again and keep it coming…got it! :wink:

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What are the equivalent stats for the US, or were all the statisticians fired already, like the guy who released the job stats. Truth hurts, as the little Lego men say.