I have always secretly rooted for India. Sure as hell beats the rise of China (now called into question).
As India’s geopolitical, economic and cultural clout grows, so does its global footprint. China’s “decline,” as some have begun to call the conclusion of the nation’s four-decade-long economic boom, opens new opportunities for the Indian economy, and other developing and emerging countries.
Earlier this year, India reached another milestone when its population officially surpassed that of China, which had been the world’s most populous country for more than 300 years. While China’s shrinking, rapidly aging population is likely to impede economic growth and might curtail its geopolitical ambitions, India — one of the world’s youngest countries, with a median age of 28.2 — is poised to reap a huge demographic dividend.
However, the driving force behind India’s emergence as a major global power is its rapid economic growth. While India’s GDP is still smaller than China’s, it is currently the world’s fastest-growing major economy and is projected to account for 12.9 percent of global growth over the next five years, surpassing the US’ 11.3 percent share.
In addition to fueling a consumption boom, India’s youthful population is driving innovation, as evidenced by the country’s world-class information economy and its recent moon landing, which the country managed to achieve despite a national space budget equivalent to about 6 percent of what the US spends on space missions. Having already surpassed the UK, its former colonial ruler, India’s GDP is poised to overtake that of Japan and Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2030, behind the US and China.
Every country has such issues. Even if they prevent India from reaching the fullest potential, as the links provided to you demonstrate India is rising steadily on the global stage
In 2002, India’s government launched a ubiquitous international tourism campaign known as “Incredible India.” Were it to launch a similar campaign today, it might as well be called “Inevitable India.” Not just enthusiasts within the country, but a chorus of global analysts, have declared India as the next great economic power: Goldman Sachs has predicted it will become the world’s second-largest economy by 2075, and the FT’s Martin Wolf suggests that by 2050, its purchasing power will be 30% larger than that of the U.S.
We have been through similar surges of Indo-optimism before. But the on-the-ground reality has continued to frustrate even the most ardent of India’s champions. From bold predictions that it would overtake China (an economy still five times larger than India’s), to McKinsey’s 2007 “bird of gold” promise of the Indian consumer that never quite panned out, to deregulation followed by policy reversals and crises of confidence in doing business with India, to devastating periods through the pandemic, the country’s promised inevitable rise has remained elusive. What’s different now?
There are several positive trends converging, from different sides of the Indian business ecosystem: demand, supply, and the system-wide facilitating factors; in combination, they can transcend economic cycles, macro shocks, and policy reversals. Some are new, and the older ones are reaching critical mass and they can finally reinforce each other to create a growth flywheel. But as with all flywheels, it is important to remain vigilant about rattling noises and burning smells, and in India’s case, these exist in abundance. It’s essential for both business and government leaders to pay attention and act before the flywheel breaks.
As an Indian, I think the bigger problem is religious intolerance and increasing anti-muslim sentiment, which even seems endorsed by the government in some states. This affects a lot more people as there are about 200M+ Muslims in India.
In a lot of neighborhoods, Muslims can’t even rent an apartment. This includes the wealthy neighborhoods in the tech hub of India i.e. Bangalore. I have Muslim friends who are regularly facing this systemic discrimination and actively looking for opportunities to leave the country. A quick look at r/India subreddit will just make you depressed.
Censorship in India is also at an all-time high, freedoms of all kinds are at an all time low. It’s turning slowly into a de-facto China in some ways. I don’t want to go back
I’ve read about all kinds of very institutionalized discrimination in India. I am not sure if any discrimination exists in China, I have to think it’s probably a bit like Taiwan or maybe a little worse.
The caste system is the most famous example, basically institutionalized discrimination in India that existed for a long time and is going to take huge efforts that there’s no political will for.
Basically any foreign investments is going to be bogged down in bureaucracies because everyone wants a piece of the pie. That’s going to limit growth.
India ain’t investing in it. Read Stratfor’s take on how countries rise to the top. all about infrastructure and efficient movement of goods. India is still far behind in that regard.
the capitalist groups should love the untouchables, that’s gotta be some prime exploitable labor they can springboard off towards full potential. Honestly probably a boon to the economy if they’re willing to take advantage of it!
On Saturday, the G20 also officially welcomed the African Union to the table, with Modi making the announcement at the top of the meeting.
Additionally, the U.S. and leaders of India, Europe, and the Middle East announced a project that would establish rail, shipping, and tech corridors meant to link regional economies with the prospect of bringing more stability to the turbulent Middle East.
I don’t either. Been there a few times on business and the last straw for me was being next in a long departure line at immigration when a local businessman broke line in front of me. I raised hell and he was sent to the back of the line but that was it for me.
I would not bet against India, in spite of all her problems. Don’t give them any intellectual property for free thinking they can’t do much with it. It’ll come back to bite you. I don’t know if they’ll become an economic powerhouse, but if there’s anyone who will, it’s India.
I have a friend (who’s Taiwanese) who lives in a gated community in Northern Virginia that’s almost all Indian IT professionals. I asked his wife why they’re all there. She said there’s a Hindu temple nearby.
