Tsai Ing-wen Again

So, she’s baaaack. Re-elected as DPP Party Chairperson by a landslide.

Some of you might regard that as good news, but I certainly don’t see it as a positive for the DPP in the long run. For those of you who have been following it, the single biggest issue in this intra-party election was where or not the party chair should be allowed to be the presidential candidate. Tsai’s opponent in the election, Kuo Tai-lin, took the position that the chairperson should not be allowed to become the presidential candidate. Tsai obviously intends to run for president again, and will use her position has chairperson to ensure her nomination. Now the stage has been set for intra-party warfare.

That sucks, and greatly increases the chances that the DPP will lose once again. Both Chen Shuibian and Ma Ying-jeou have given us real world examples of the damage that can be inflicted when the president also controls the party. Give one person that much power, and you can be sure that it will be abused.

Tsai must have plenty of friends in the DPP to win such a landslide (93%) victory. But as Pyrrhus famously said after a battle in 279 BC, “One more such victory and we are lost.”

1 Like

The only thing that can stop the DPP winning both the presidency and the legislature in 2016 is the DPP.

The alternative being, of course, a bunch of squabbling fools who know everything about nothing and prevent the administration from ever doing anything. Marginally preferable I suppose, but not what we pay them for. And the current manifestation of the DPP seems to be unusually thick with people who are all wind and no brains.

I don’t think either CSB or MYJ single-handedly inflicted “damage” on Taiwan. In CSB’s case, his only real crime was to regress to being a yokel who couldn’t keep his hands out of the till; in general terms, he was the right man for the time and simply outlived his usefulness. MYJ represents a lot of old-school business interests who are having a grand old time shovelling cash into each others’ pockets; in other words, he has a lot of support.

Don’t vote. The government will get in.

I still wish it would be Lai Tshing-te running for 2016.

They have an excellent chance at the presidency but the LY is another beast.

I agree that it is not ideal the president is head of the party, but this is Taiwan and that is how the system works.

I agree that the president doubling as chair is a problem, but I don’t really see why the nominee doubling as chair is that big of a deal in this case outside of her spreading herself too thin. Maybe if there were other contenders who actually stood a shot of beating her for the nomination (which DID occur last time and was an issue), but polling has consistently reflected that no other DPP politician is nearly as popular as she is at this point with the base or public as a whole. Her being the nominee has seemed like a sure thing for some time, to the point that whether or not she’s chair won’t make much of a difference.

What troubles me is her policy proposals. Some of the ideas she’s put forth on constitutional reform, such as lowering the threshold for referendums and moving the voting age to 18, are no-brainers, but increasing the number of legislators is pointless especially given the DPP pushed for the reduction in the first place. The fact that she wants more party list legislators makes it worse given that they are more prone to listen to the party rather than public opinion and cannot be recalled. In addition, her reluctance to push for a parliamentary system is pretty clearly rooted in the fact that she stands a very good chance of being President and doesn’t want to limit her power in the future.

And that is some very strong oppostion right there.

English Tsai lost, give way to someone else.

Obama is the default head of the Democratic Party. Bush was the default head of the Republican Party when he was President. It’s been like that for scores.

Early on, I thought Tsai would be a good choice. However, she has no backbone! I followed her lack luster campaign the last time. My Golden Retriever has more spirit.
Where is a lady like Hillary?
Where is a lady like Michelle?
Good Luck!
Born on the Fourth of July!

[quote=“Yamashiro”]Early on, I thought Tsai would be a good choice. However, she has no backbone! I followed her lack luster campaign the last time. My Golden Retriever has more spirit.
Where is a lady like Hillary?
Where is a lady like Michelle?
Good Luck!
Born on the Fourth of July![/quote]

Apples & Oranges.

I wonder if his trip to China over the weekend will give him a boost? It sure seems to have raised his profile, particularly with the greens. Running for re-election seems to put an end to any presidential bid, though.

I wonder if his trip to China over the weekend will give him a boost? It sure seems to have raised his profile, particularly with the greens. Running for re-election seems to put an end to any presidential bid, though.[/quote]

I don’t know too much about Lai, other than that he’s mayor of Tainan. I looked up his wikipedia page, brief but informative:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Lai

I would like to hear more about him. I’m not sure that running for re-election would be fatal to Lai’s presidential bid, but his biggest problem will probably be that Tsai Ing-wen will use all her power as party chair to ensure the nomination for herself. I really wish there was some kind of law that prohibited party chairs from running for any elected office until he/she resigns from the post. I don’t know if any nation has such a law, but it would be a good idea. As the old saying goes, power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

It’s not necessarily fatal, but the timing of the two elections makes running for both difficult enough that it really does become an either or option. The local elections are on November 29, and the presidential election will be in January 2016, so Lai will have to announce his bid and start campaigning pretty much as soon as his second term begins. This is the same dilemma Eric Chu is facing. Just another reason why the electoral system in Taiwan makes no sense - the municipal leaders tend to be the best qualified to run for President, but they’re penned in by the electoral calendar.

Perhaps surprisingly, I agree with Dirt. For whatever reason, Tsai lost in 2012, and she has not yet done anything since then to make her a more appealing candidate. It’s like getting rejected from a job interview and coming back later with only more of the same on your resume but hoping for a better result.

If she goes up against Chu, I think it will be a repeat of 2012. If the KMT fields Hau, though, she’ll have a very real shot.

They are/were the faces of their parties, yes, but Obama has absolutely no power over the Democrats in Congress. He can only make suggestions and pleas. Ma Ying-jeou (and any other president-cum-chairman) has very real power over lawmakers in his party by threatening with them if they break from the party line. That’s why we have very few “maverick” lawmakers in Taiwan – most of them are very guai and do what they’re told.

Obama took a suggestion from Senator Elizabeth Warren just the other day over student loans (even if it was just for show). When has Ma ever publicly acknowledged taking a suggestion from, say, Lo Shu-lei? It’s all top down in the KMT.

Actually, I don’t think it’s such a big problem, especially not for Chu. Note that to date, he still hasn’t announced that he’ll run for reelection in Xinbei (because he doesn’t want to be elected only to abandon his constituents for a bigger prize, making them angry when it comes time to vote for president). A Chu-Hau ticket is I think almost a guarantee at this point.

The way it works is that a local chief gets years of executive experience and then either fills his term limits or chooses not to run again, after which he (she?) can focus on a presidential run.

In truth, though, there is more in common with the job of the premier and the job of a mayor or county magistrate. What few people realize is that the president is less of a chief executive and more of a chairman. The ROC president only makes very broad directional changes and appoints a premier to do everything else. A proven competent manager would make seemingly be a better choice for premier than president.

As for the presidency, I think generally speaking a former premier would have the proper credentials and the understanding of the extraordinarily complex relations between Taiwan’s government branches. I don’t however expect Vincent Siew or Wu Den-yih to put their names in the running for 2016. (and Sean Chen’s out because he isn’t in good health.)

I predict Sean Lien wins Taipei this year, and if there’s a KMT president, Lien will be named premier at the end of his first mayoral term. He will run for and probably win the presidency in the future.

Actually, I don’t think it’s such a big problem, especially not for Chu. Note that to date, he still hasn’t announced that he’ll run for reelection in Xinbei (because he doesn’t want to be elected only to abandon his constituents for a bigger prize, making them angry when it comes time to vote for president). A Chu-Hau ticket is I think almost a guarantee at this point.

The way it works is that a local chief gets years of executive experience and then either fills his term limits or chooses not to run again, after which he (she?) can focus on a presidential run.
[/quote]

It’s definitely a big problem, particularly for Chu, and the fact that he has yet to announce his intentions is a reflection of that.

If Chu foregoes re-election, Xinbei will suddenly be competitive. This is why serving as a local chief is not a simple matter or either filling ones term or choosing not to run for re-election; the local chief is their party’s best chance of staying in power in their jurisdiction, and if they refuse to run again they will most certainly burn bridges. If Chu opts against running again and the KMT loses Xinbei, by far the biggest municipality in the country, the blame will fall squarely on him, and his rivals for the KMT’s nomination will use that against him. In addition, he will likely be under pressure to take on a national role, either campaigning for the KMT or more likely than not within the administration itself, which will tie him to Ma and thus harm his popularity.

If Chu runs again, he will be dogged throughout the campaign about his presidential ambitions and forced to promise he’ll serve out his next term. This will then be used against him throughout the presidential campaign, both by the DPP in the general election and his rivals within the KMT during the primary. His stepping down will also trigger a by-election that will likely be close, and if the KMT loses he will again take the blame.

This is precisely why he hasn’t announced yet, and at this point, every day he delays hurts the KMT’s chances in Xinbei since the field is frozen and none of his potential successors have even begun campaigning. While the above factors aren’t fatal to his chances in 2016, they’re pretty substantial negatives and it’s hard to say which choice would be riskier, which explains his indecision.

[quote]I predict Sean Lien wins Taipei this year, and if there’s a KMT president, Lien will be named premier at the end of his first mayoral term. He will run for and probably win the presidency in the future.
[/quote]

I think you’re vastly overestimating his potential. The man is running for Mayor of Taipei - a position which a dog could win if it was the KMT nominee - against a physician with no party backing or political experience, and yet he’s still struggling in the polls. He’ll probably win in the end, but his difficulty getting there is reflection of what a piss poor candidate he is and I doubt he has the national appeal to come close to the Presidency. The KMT’s lock on Taipei gives the party an excellent mechanism to develop potential presidential candidates, yet it has wasted it on underwhelming princelings two times in a row now.

That’s a problem with Chu, not a problem with the system. Chu is the one at fault for not having made up his mind on whether he wants Xinbei or Taiwan. If he had chosen one at this point, the KMT could have already have backup candidates prepared.

Depends on which poll you’re looking at. Tsai Ing-wen beat Ma or was at least very close behind him in most of the polls ahead of the 2012 election, and still managed to lose by a large percentage. Lien will easily win Taipei, especially as more people get to see what a terrible choice Ko Wen-jo is. Given his endless resources and extremely high position within the KMT, Lien will spend his four years in city hall grooming himself for the presidency. He’ll certainly get the party’s nomination for it in the future.

[quote=“Hokwongwei”]

That’s a problem with Chu, not a problem with the system. Chu is the one at fault for not having made up his mind on whether he wants Xinbei or Taiwan. If he had chosen one at this point, the KMT could have already have backup candidates prepared.[/quote]

There are actually multiple potential back up candidates for the KMT, but none of them are as popular as Chu and obviously none will have the advantage of incumbency that he does. If the election were a year earlier, none of this would be a problem. You are right in that there are quite a few variables here that make it a particularly difficult situation for Chu which have nothing to do with the election schedule.

What polls would those be? Tsai was down by 3-8 points in most polls prior to the election, and she wound up losing by 6. She only beat Ma in a handful of polls at various times throughout the campaign, most of which were done by pro-DPP polling outfits. Check out the compilation of polls on the Chinese wiki: zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012%E5%B9 … F%E6%9F%A5

I don’t doubt Lien will win, precisely because he will drown Ko in cash and is a KMT prince-ling running in the bluest city in the country. Is that supposed to be impressive, though? It’s like a Kennedy having to spend a small fortune to eke out a win against a tea party loon in Massachusetts. That he is struggling at all is very telling.

Just like Hau has spent eight years in city hall grooming himself for the presidency?

That’s cultural.

I’m curious as to why you think that Ko Wen-je is a terrible choice. Not that I know anything about him. I went looking for info on his background, and the best I could come up with was this:

2013.tedxtaipei.com/en/speaker/dr-ko-wen-je-en/

Not much info there. At least we know Ko is well-educated. Whether or not that means he’d be a good mayor, I couldn’t say.