I see that Ms. Tsai has thrown her hat into the ring for Xinbei City Mayor. I am absolutely opposed to this consolidation of cities in Taipei County. I understand the KMT objective, consolidation of services, but we already have reciprocity agreements with the various cities, so the proclaimed objective is simply a reason for a hidden objective. Of course, the objective is to EDIT: increase END EDIT or consolidate, the Northern Taiwan KMT support. I happen to believe that this was a political and logistical mistake. I believe that when people feel manipulated, such as this move by the Presidential Office, most people will feel angry and express their anger with their vote.
Conclusion: I will support prospective mayor, Ms. Tsai, with finances and labor. If you desire to assist, let me know by PM and I will give more information. Thanks.
What happens if she wins? Wouldn’t that mean she’d be out of the running for 2012 presidential elections?
As would Su if he wins Taipei City. But I imagine there are ways out of those promises.
But isn’t it illegal for foreigners to work for political campaigns? I may be wrong about that, though, I haven’t really kept up with the relevant laws.
if the DPP won both it would be such a clear indication of public voting sentiment it wouldn’t matter much who ran for president.
tsai won’t win but that isn’t the point. She needs campaign experience and after her fairly dismal performance debating Ma, some practice in public speaking and dealing with the media.
These are big races and it gives the DPP bigwigs lots of free airtime.
Tsai wanted to run for Taipei City mayor but Su, whom many expected to be running for the Xinbei City mayorship due to his experience as Taipei County magistrate, jumped the gun and declared he’d be running in Taipei City himself. Tsai was left with no choice but to run for Xinbei City herself. I can’t imagine that she’s very happy about it, but Su is pretty much the most powerful individual in the DPP these days. If Tsai loses, she’ll get points for trying at least as she’s never run a campaign before, but if Su loses in Taipei City, he’ll probably lose the chance at top spot on the presidential ticket, as many will see his decision to run in Taipei City as a blunder that cost the DPP a seat there as well as in Xinbei City.
Yeah, you would think the person that helped negotiate Taiwan’s WTO accession would be able to articulate herself in the context of the ECFA. But she is constrained by the anti free trade people within the DPP and their foreign hangers on. Despite what the anti free trade leftists in Taiwan say, this Agreement will provide a huge benefit for Taiwan. Taiwan parties will possibly be able use a dispute resolution mechanism to their advantage. If a strong DR mechanism is negotiated, if tariffs are reduced or eliminated, and if the Agreement has minimal exclusions (comprehensive), it would benefit Taiwan companies and put them on equal footing with other Asian countries that have FTAs with China.
People always complain about unfair practices within the China market, but a strong DR mechanism would actually mean that Taiwan companies would have a mechanism for protesting the unfair and uncompetitive advantages. It amazes me that so many people are opposing this agreement just because it is China on the other end. FTAs aren’t just signed with democracies. Free trade is free trade!!
My reading is slightly different. Su will lose in Taipei City but narrowly, getting more votes than Frank Hsieh or Chen Shui-bian and putting him in a strong position to be the next DPP candidate. Remember, he’s won in Taipei County and in Pingtung, He has little to prove in terms of electability. He’s a great public speaker, popular with centrist voters and light greens who went over to the dark side last time, and he’s a Hakka. Like Tsai, he was untarnished by the Chen scandals.
Tsai needs to win in Taipei County to prove herself. If she does, she’s the front runner for the presidential nomination. If she loses though and Su does well in Taipei City, I think Su is the front runner.
Tsai could win in Taipei County. Chu Li-lun is untested outside his hometown of Taoyuan and polls taken the other day show them as pretty even. But Tsai is an academic and a bit of a cold fish. She’s really going to have show another side of herself if she’s going to win over and mobilize the large working class vote in Taipei County. She’s a remarkably intelligent and resourceful person she may wll be able to do it.
It’s also interesting how the (foreign) media falls over itself slobbering over Ma Ying-jiu’s great English and Harvard degree but rarely mention that Tsai holds a PhD from the London School of Economics and speaks far better English than Ma does. Tsai is presidential material. As much as I like Su I think Tsai would be the better choice. Su can be her premier.
if the DPP won both it would be such a clear indication of public voting sentiment it wouldn’t matter much who ran for president.
tsai won’t win but that isn’t the point. She needs campaign experience and after her fairly dismal performance debating Ma, some practice in public speaking and dealing with the media.
These are big races and it gives the DPP bigwigs lots of free airtime.[/quote]
Makes sense, especially if Chu is the favorite in Xinbei. Thanks MM.
This is what I don’t understand. If she wins, doesn’t that mean she’s committed to a 4 year term and wouldn’t be able to run in 2012? I guess she could step down to run, but I’d imagine that would cost a lot of votes among the light blue/green centrist voters. Or am I reading it wrong?
I don’t think she’s presidential material yet, but I think she will be before long. If the DPP can pledge some long term support, she’d be a great chance for 2016.
My reading is slightly different. Su will lose in Taipei City but narrowly, getting more votes than Frank Hsieh or Chen Shui-bian and putting him in a strong position to be the next DPP candidate. Remember, he’s won in Taipei County and in Pingtung, He has little to prove in terms of electability. He’s a great public speaker, popular with centrist voters and light greens who went over to the dark side last time, and he’s a Hakka. Like Tsai, he was untarnished by the Chen scandals.
Tsai needs to win in Taipei County to prove herself. If she does, she’s the front runner for the presidential nomination. If she loses though and Su does well in Taipei City, I think Su is the front runner.
Tsai could win in Taipei County. Chu Li-lun is untested outside his hometown of Taoyuan and polls taken the other day show them as pretty even. But Tsai is an academic and a bit of a cold fish. She’s really going to have show another side of herself if she’s going to win over and mobilize the large working class vote in Taipei County. She’s a remarkably intelligent and resourceful person she may wll be able to do it.
It’s also interesting how the (foreign) media falls over itself slobbering over Ma Ying-jiu’s great English and Harvard degree but rarely mention that Tsai holds a PhD from the London School of Economics and speaks far better English than Ma does. Tsai is presidential material. As much as I like Su I think Tsai would be the better choice. Su can be her premier.[/quote]
I’ve always thought highly of Tsai, but her opposition to the ECFA bothers me. As someone who negotiated Taiwan’s access to the WTO, she knows the limitations of the WTO and how 21st Century trade agreements need be comprehensive (especially with Doha stalled) and further lower or eliminate tariffs, remove non-tariff barriers to trade, strengthen dispute resolution mechanisms, and create other improvements to competitiveness. With China negotiating FTAs with a number of other Asian countries, it becomes imperative that Taiwan negotiate similar arrangements. That Tsai opposes such liberalization that I see as necessary to keep Taiwan competitive only illustrates to me that she is pandering to the chauvinistic dark green Hoklo base. They’ll abandon her in a minute for Su IMHO.
And don’t be too impressed by her or any academic credentials. The hard part is getting into LSE. Passing is easy. Even a person like me was able to graduate in the top 10 percent. 
[quote=“Chewycorns”] With China negotiating FTAs with a number of other Asian countries, it becomes imperative that Taiwan negotiate similar arrangements. That Tsai opposes such liberalization that I see as necessary to keep Taiwan competitive only illustrates to me that she is pandering to the chauvinistic dark green Hoklo base. They’ll abandon her in a minute for Su IMHO.
And don’t be too impressed by her or any academic credentials. The hard part is getting into LSE. Passing is easy. Even a person like me was able to graduate in the top 10 percent. 
[/quote]
Chewy, ECFA is a status quo agreement that will enable Taiwan to continue what it is currently doing, without upgrading its economy, as are all of the KMT’s current China policies. It is not a free trade agreement, despite the hype. More like a controlled liberalization agreement. There was an excellent piece on the status quo aspects of ECFA at INPR the other day: inpr.org.tw/?q=node/197.
The FTAs that China currently has have been mostly bad for their signatories – ASEAN has seen worsening overall trade deficits, massive smuggling, and little FDI from China. That’s why Indonesia and Thailand both want their agreements renegotiated. The tariff charge for imports to China is not all that significant - currency fluctuations are a lot more important – and in many cases countries cannot capture the full value of their FTAs thanks to country of origin rules that vary across the FTAs they have signed. The economic positives of FTAs with China are mostly the product of a giddy faith in market fundamentalism, not reality.
Here’s a piece on the Indonesian re-negotiation
thejakartaglobe.com/business … fta/350798
Added: Jon Adams has a good piece on ECFA in NYTimes this week.
nytimes.com/2010/05/13/busin … yt&emc=rss
In any case…
Su did not “suddenly jump into Taipei” but was placed there as a party decision. The expectation is that he will lose narrowly and be free to run in 2012. His popularity will force the KMT to commit significant resources to that race. I am not sure he will actually lose, I’d say he might win, especially with the KMT performing as poorly as it currently is. In 1998 Chen polled 688K votes, in the last election Mayor Hau grabbed 692K. I see no reason for any great increase in Hau’s vote (which is not to say it couldn’t happen) whereas Su will probably be at least as good as Chen. Could be close, which would be a big plus for the DPP as the local and foreign media, which have no interest in numbers or history, are likely to give the DPP a big shout-out if Su/Tsai does well.
Tsai for Xinbei is all about getting her experience in the rough and tumble of electoral politics. I think once they get her image worked on – to me she seems like the severe and pedantic schoolmarm you hated in junior high, ironic considering what a nice person she is. Chu is popular and I do not see how she can win, but then anything can happen.
The north will be interesting, especially since the other three mayor elections appear fairly predictable at this point.
Vorkosigan
Seen a campaign truck with pictures of some DPP wifie on it today blaring the "baitou, baitou, xiexie, xiexie schtick. Someone had been tossing eggs at it. Bitan’s not exactly a deep-green bastion!
The DPP’s original plan was to have Su run for Xinbei, where he has experience from two terms as county magistrate, while Tsai, who speaks English as well as Ma Ying-jeou, more or less, went for the more prestigious Taipei mayorship, appealing to a more cosmopolitan electorate in the city where she resides (Both Su and Tsai are actually from Pingtung). That all changed when Zhou Xi-wei announced that he would not run again, and it became apparent that Eric Chu, a more formidable competitor, was going to be the KMT’s candidate in Xinbei. Without any communication to the party, Su announced, to significant criticism from within the party, that he was going run in Taipei against Hau Lung-bin, who is not as popular as Chu, leaving Tsai in the lurch. However, after Tsai’s resounding defeat of You Qing in the party’s chair elections, even though he was backed by the old guard including Tsai Tong-rong, her standing went up enough that she felt able to heed the calls for her to challenge Chu for Xinbei City. I find it interesting that she has since decided to parrot the deep-greens by taking up the “government-in-exile” line, though.