[quote=“mukashi”]What makes this typhoon so popular so early?
Usually when I saw news about typhoons 2 days before they were scheduled to arrive in Taiwan, people were totally “no problem”. With this one, some people are already saying they’re not sure about out weekend plans because the typhoon.
Is it supposed to be extra strong? Or is the potential track super scary?
Don’t get me wrong, I usually get “excited” about typhoons early, but I feel like this one gets extra attention.[/quote]
well, both expected trajectories mirror very devastating previous typhoons, so the authorities/media/common people are on alert for this one. Could get messy.
Moreover, as you say, it tends to spoil weekend plans. That is a bummer. Especially in summer with all the kids tucked away in summer camps, in the mountains, close to rivers… Or at Grandma’s, in the mountains/countryside, close to rivers…
Will be at least a category 4 typhoon by landfall. I am already pondering if I should take a day off on Friday to take care of my infant, instead of taking him to the nanny.
I don’t know where you are getting “category 4” from. I’m reading the 9AM JTWC update and it has it at Cat 3 as it approaches Taiwan. And you know it will degrade to a Cat 1 or 2 right quick as soon as the outer bands hit the mountains of Taiwan.
Also keep in mind that at this point they still don’t know whether it will make landfall in Taiwan or in Eastern China. Due to developing weather in China, the various models are in disagreement about when it will turn poleward.
I hope it stays well north as I’ve already arranged to have Thursday and Friday off. It would suck if Friday is a typhoon day anyway and all my family and cycling time is ruined by heavy rain.
Anyway, I wouldn’t jump the gun just yet. We’ll know more about the track area in a couple of days.
We won’t know the exact circumstances this time (as with any typhoon) until half a day or so before it is right on top of us, but i couldn’t count how often i’ve left windows open (just the fly screen closed) on the lee side of a typhoon - nothing has ever come in. But it also depends on the kind of house you are living in: some buildings will have water running down the walls and straight into your open windows even if there is no wind - there seem to be enough architects who don’t consider the reality on the ground when designing a building for a certain place.
Where we are (on a relatively small island with relatively low mountains - hills by Taiwanese standards) the wind direction is pretty predictable. In an area with large mountains in the vicinity you never quite know from where the wind will hit your house, so leaving windows wide open may not be a good choice. We only barricade (as in “put extra fortifications in place”) the side(s) of the house from where the wind is going to hit - this time (assuming the forecast track does not change significantly southward) that would mean the southwest side, the northwest side, and the northeast side of the house. The southeast side should be fine - meaning we can keep the windows open on that side while the storm passes…
But a good rule of thumb is, “if in doubt, prepare for the worst case scenario” - i’m not advocating that people who are not used to typhoons should take unnecessary risks… was just talking ahout a certain practical application of the rules of physics under certain circumstances…
This typhoon is “overdue”, it sort of “popped up” (developed very fast), and it has quickly reached a shape that makes the specialists take note and issue 50m/s+ forecasts - people who live here and typhoon specialists among the meteoriologists have an instinct as to when it’s OK to be a bit lackadaisical and when it’s better to pay close attention… in this case it’s just 36 hours ago that i first mentioned the upcoming typhoon here (at a time when all we had was a bunch of clouds over a depression), but the specialists agree by now that it’s going to be a pretty strong storm.
In this case, an uncertainty of +/- 100km (when it comes to the path the center of the eye takes) makes a big difference to us here in Ishigaki: we would get predominatly westerly winds (if the eye were to pass to the north of us) or predominantly easterly winds (if the eye passed to the south of us). We could also get a whopper of some northerly wind, followed by a calm, followed by a whopper of a southerly wind (if the eye happened to pass directly overhead) or a combination of several of the above (if the eye passes very close but not directly overhead but very close or if the typhoon feels sufficiently disturbed by our little landmass to “wobble” or “meander” or “linger” or whatever storms do at times when they don’t move in a straight line… :s :eh: So we need to prepare for all possibilities…
Yeah, the track has shifted, now brushing the northern tip of Taiwan. If it does stay clearly up there though, it might (did I use enough asterisks there?) be quite good cycling weather in the south-west, if you pick and choose your slots. Cloudy with light rain is possible. I don’t know where you’ve shipped to though. Tainan only has an 20% chance of cat7 winds over the weekend.
We should not overlook that the tracks we are talking about are the predicted movement of the CENTER of the typhoon. Typhoon strength air movement will occur 50 to 100km in any direction from that center, and beyond that you have “storm” and beyond that “strong wind”. On top of that the potential for heavy rainfall. IOW, the potential for accidents, damage, flooding, and so on extends over many hundreds of km radius from that point on the track we look at on the map… just saying…
I don’t know where you are getting “category 4” from. I’m reading the 9AM JTWC update and it has it at Cat 3 as it approaches Taiwan. And you know it will degrade to a Cat 1 or 2 right quick as soon as the outer bands hit the mountains of Taiwan.
Also keep in mind that at this point they still don’t know whether it will make landfall in Taiwan or in Eastern China. Due to developing weather in China, the various models are in disagreement about when it will turn poleward.
I hope it stays well north as I’ve already arranged to have Thursday and Friday off. It would suck if Friday is a typhoon day anyway and all my family and cycling time is ruined by heavy rain.
Anyway, I wouldn’t jump the gun just yet. We’ll know more about the track area in a couple of days.[/quote]
Coastal Typhoon Warning will be issued by CWB Thursday before noon.
Current wind speed at 51 meters/sec, or equivalent of 183 km/h
Gusts up to 63 meters/sec, equivalent of 226 km/h
Storm radius has increased from 200 to 280 KM, with center location making landfall near central Yilan, heading west north west passing through Taipei and exits from Taoyuan.
Lovely day for laundry. Broiled chicken from Costco will be very useful -get pizza if a large family. “Acquire” viewing material -local DVD store or “other alternatives”. Drinking stuff if you are into that. Pet necessities. Check the gutters if you have some. Check balcony. Remove flying hazards. Prepare to stay at home comfortably.
So we need to prepare for all possibilities…