The horseshoe theory of propaganda? Eventually it could easily come from either side.
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Indeed. It’s super hard to know what’s really going on, especially with casualty numbers and such, and especially if there’s no third party verification.
What’s interesting about the “new offensive” story is this:
Ukrainian officials have said they base their assessments of Russia’s war aims on the findings of their military and foreign intelligence agencies and on consultations with allies.
I’d sort of expect the US to confirm those intelligence agency findings – they usually do – but if they have, I haven’t seen it mentioned anywhere.
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It can’t be that difficult to analyse a huge military build-up. Either there is one or there isn’t.
Right? And this seems odd too:
Military analysts say that this campaign is intended to demoralize Ukrainians and push the Ukrainian government into a cease-fire that might allow Russia time to regroup and rearm for future offensives.
Mr. Podolyak said that the type of mass infantry warfare Moscow seems to be preparing for would not be effective against Ukraine’s increasingly modern arsenal of precision-guided weaponry and surveillance drones. But he said that the Russian military leadership had bent to Kremlin demands for advances on the ground for domestic political reasons.
So, the Kremlin is pushing for a ceasefire so Russia can regroup, but it doesn’t matter because Ukraine is too well-armed, but Ukraine needs more arms and a ceasefire must be rejected because … wait, I’m confused.
Also, it seems to me that the war has been pretty much a stalemate for months now, except for Russia pulling out of Kherson to a more defensible position across the river. What is preventing them from preparing a new offensive without a ceasefire? What would regrouping look like, when they are already dug into defensive lines, with trenches and artillery and such?
I don’t really understand any of it.
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Great read. Many of those US veteran analysts on youtube constantly comment on how fractured the Russian command seems to be. It would make sense if it is as a result of Putin deliberately keeping commends separate so no one would grow large enough to challenge him. It is a very authoritarian thing to do. When things aren’t going well, these divided commands begins to turn on one another to compete for resources, which is also completely understandable. Just look at how US states competed for medical supplies during the early days of the pandemic, but now imagine they all have tanks and weapons which are all running low on fuel and ammunition, and each much climb over another to get some to survive.
This winter is going to be brutal for the Ukrainians, even more so than last February. However, it’s going to be brutal for the Russians for the next few decades as well.
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This should have been posted in Ukraine Invasion: Specific Developments, November-December 2022
Great article by NYT.
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Sandworm wasn’t done. In its boldest stroke yet, it went after the Ukrainian military’s satellite communications, used by soldiers in the field. It worked, and by 6:15 a.m. on Feb. 24, the system went down, right at Ukraine’s most vulnerable moment.
It could have been a crippling blow. But the Ukrainian government had a backup plan: a separate satellite communications system, which it had tested only two months before, to make sure it was ready in the event of a Russian invasion.
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it ALWAYS devolves into a one thread shit show, because we the people love our fights with a side of news mixed in. It’s the only way. Its what makes the forum such a great place. The thriving eco system of russian agents, Chinese CCP commanders, right-wing teachers, Blue haired vegan grinches, and then…then you have I, KingKONDDONK the ONLY FUCKING RATIONAL PERSON LEFT ON THIS FORUM.
NOW, I do have a profound thought, what if CHINA comes out and says, we will retake taiwan just as Ukraine will retake Crimea. I mean what kind of mindfuck wrench would that throw into this entire fucking shit show?!
plz dont punish, me whiskey.
FUCKING WHAT
How about, 1. Refraining from posting in all caps and 2 If you have a question about the article you just posted perhaps you might articulate it a bit more clearly.
I did read the article and it seems to be self explanatory.
You didn’t see that? they fought with fucking NOTHING, just went up against the russian forces with pikes because fuck russia. wow. I can forsee a few Taiwanese giving it their all, but this is the epitome of…“I dont fucking want you here” and yet Putin thinks these are his people.
I viewed this article more as analysis/discussion rather than specific development.
Of course if @Mick or @TT think it’s a better fit over there, feel free to relocate it and the discussion that follows.
Guy
You’ve forgot to mention ultra-Austronesian-Taiwan nationalists, like me.
PUTIN NFT ANNOUNCEMENT!? is it coming? or is he going to go full blown hitler. I wonder if it’s mobilization 2.0
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At a wild guess, what he has been calling a special military operation he will now declare a war on Ukraine.
That speculation has been floating around for months now.
I wonder how many morons in russia still think this is a "special military operation’ but the wording could allow him to mobilize more people. it’ll be bloody.
russia sent 5-7million of it’s own men into the meat grinder…this 100k to them is a drop in a bucket, they are absolute the most tragic of tragic countries of the 20th and 21st century so far).
‘Merry Christmas’ - Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. Dec. 2022
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The casus belli being Ukraine’s forced annexation of the Russian city of Kherson, perhaps.
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My bet is a bayonet up the arse end of play, or an Idi Amin escape to some friendly country. End game is starting.