Ukrainian hindsight: Chinese invasion of Taiwan less likely

It is my estimation that even in the midst of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which the CCP is no doubt following closely, the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is now less likely. The reasons for it are as follows:

Economic fallout
It is clear that the Russian economy is facing and will face tremendous isolation and fallout in the coming years. It would seem Russia miscalculated on how far the rest of the world would be willing to go to sanction them for what was an aggressive war of choice - apparently believing for example that the West would be reluctant to act because they need Russian oil/gas. Just today, the West has added oil/gas to their Russian sanctions.

The main tool which PRC uses to influence the world today is its immense economy. The world may or may not sanction PRC to the extent Russia has been sanctioned simply because Chinese integration into the world’s economy is too big to be cut off. However, there is a non-zero chance that it may well be sanctioned like Russia - if not for the moral imperative of preventing a bigger nation swallowing up its neighbor, then for the realpolitik reason of cutting off reliance on Chinese imports and allowing domestic industries to develop in lieu.

Domestic unrest
Connected to the first, if China’s economy is hit with sanctions, and suffers as a result, China may face domestic unrest against the CCP. The selling point of the CCP over the Chinese people is that under their leadership, the country’s economy and standard of living have progressed rapidly. What happens if this selling point is lost? Add to this the fact that body bags coming home is always unpopular, even more so if the body bag has your only child because of the One Child Policy.

Motivation of the PLA
How motivated is the average PLA soldier? Without having been in the PLA, one may suppose that they ride haughty on the wings of the rise of China as a superpower. What happens if a war with Taiwan results in the great Chinese war machine being ground down in a war of attrition? The reality of dead bodies brings into question one’s military ascendancy.

In WW2, the Nazi war machine was motivated by what was viewed as German humiliation after the Treaty of Versailles and their propaganda as the master race destined to rule. These circumstances produced a motivated army.

Unified resistance
It is evident that one thing the Russian invasion of Ukraine did, was galvanize Ukrainians against the Russians. The Russians weren’t welcomed with open arms. An invasion of Taiwan by China would almost certainly have the same effect, and reverse any gains on a people calling for a “soft” unification. Essentially, an invasion would mean that the people must be forcibly subjugated or eliminated.

The economic cost of forcibly subjugating, and maintaining control, over an unwilling population should not be underestimated. Even if the population is completely disarmed and demoralized, if people stop working, stop being productive, keep having “accidents” or resort to sabotage, it would be a net drain on the Chinese economy.

Geography of Taiwan
Taiwan has a limited range of beaches suitable for amphibious landings. A lot of Taiwan’s coastline consists of mudflats. Any amphibious landings would almost immediately be faced with urban combat. Further inshore, Taiwan’s mountainous regions present ideal ground for guerillas. Furthermore, there are a number of Taiwanese-owned islands between Taiwan and the mainland, which would need to be conquered first.

Logistics of an invasion
Learning from the Russian example of a land invasion, their advance was and is being stymied by logistical problems. A seaborne invasion of Taiwan would face the same problems, and be vulnerable to hit and run attacks, long-range missile strikes or loitering munitions/mines/area denial weapons. Therefore a seaborne invasion would be costly until the forward islands are conquered and China achieves naval and air superiority. It is estimated that it would take about a month or two for civilians to be trained to a basic level as partisans.

To what end?
What would be the practical goal of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan? Capture and assimilation of Taiwan’s economy and industrial production? There seems to be no other practical reason, the politics of “reunification” or a One China policy aside.

A messy war of conquest and subjugation would mean that Taiwan’s economy and industrial production would almost certainly be lost as a prize. So one returns to the question of what the practical, tangible benefit of a Chinese conquest of Taiwan would deliver.

What do you all think?

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I think there’s already a thread on this topic.

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I agree. It seems most levelheaded observers feel the same, and it’s the media trying to stir up fear for ratings as usual.

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To be fair Burns also said Xi & co’s determination to take Taiwan shouldn’t be under estimated in his report to Senate intelligence committee.

Not mentioned in the Tweet.

A thread or every thread🤔

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This is not even close to what happened with the covid outbreak.

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@Mick I think you can move this to the other thread…?

i agree on the economy and domestic unrest


the inheritors of the middle kingdom still tout the century of humiliation, and when i lived there old reels of japanese atrocities were pretty much always on tv

but, the motivation i believe will be sapped when they see how unprepared the PLA is for the was, when they start getting their asses kicked it will be a problem; as with ukraine when they are not welcomed with open arms as they have been led to expect it will be a problem


agree on unified resistance, geography logistics


to what end? the list is long, we’ve talked about it on the other thread.


yeah, i saw this as well. probably things haven’t swung so far that now is a good time to declare independence. but, all else being equal, taiwan is safer as a result of russia’s miscalculation.

No. I disagree. Your analysis, like most, assumes China is an impersonal bureaucratic machine that produces outcomes based on exterior parameters.

In fact, China’s invasion of Taiwan is more likely because of the following: the likelihood is actually a function of internal, PERSONAL factors

1 Communist Chairman’s concentration of Power. The more concentrated Xi’s power, the more likely he will attack Taiwan. The more purging he has done to his own, the more likely he will attack Taiwan.

2 Communist State’s gross national power. The more power his State accrued, the more likely Xi will attack Taiwan. Xi believes all of that gross national power is at his disposal, even if you try to reduce it externally, he still believes he is all powerful.

  1. Communist Chairman’s indefinite reign. Time is a factor. The longer Xi is in power, the more likely he will attack, because he’s is aware of his personal lifespan being limited, but he WILL attack before he dies. That’s what he wants. So each year, the remaining time he has a a human being is less, yet each year he is more motivated than last year to have it done before he dies.

  2. As a nuclear power, he is 100% certain that the United States will not attack any part of China, because that’s what the Western politicians, diplomats, scholars and analysts have been reassuring him. Even if the West attacks China as a response, by then he will already have attacked Taiwan first already. Even if he is proved wrong, he will believe he is still correct in the end, for as long as he lives.

  3. People in China and in fact most Chinese living in the West have sufficiently bought into the Century of Humiliation narrative. They will support Xi even if China is sanctioned like Russia. They will just blame the West for their misery.

The only way you can stop people like Xi or Putin is each year you elevate the hurdle higher and also hope they procrastinate, and also keep praying they have a stroke or something like that. However if they luckily stay healthy, and with each round for internal purging they feel even better about themselves, they will attack. When they attack, you want to counter attack to wipe out the ideology that’s infested that country. Otherwise I assure you 200 years from now they will still keep producing similar dictators.

I just saw someone on the Don Lemon show saying Ukrainians are making sure their loved ones are free.

I posted a while back stating that my cousins would fight to defend their own families.

Expect at least that much from the Taiwanese.

And if everyone defense their families, we’re good.

Currently both parties (China vs Taiwan+West) want Taiwan.

All China needs to do is change the equation, China can make it so that nobody else wants Taiwan.

Furthermore China could make it so everyone voluntarily leaves Taiwan.

In this way, theoretically China never has to invade.

This is why is imperative to deter China from even attempting self-harm that could inadvertently cause a crisis across the Taiwan Strait. For example, if China allows their own nuclear power plant to melt down in Fujian, it could force an evacuation of all of Taiwan.

And if you think China would not attempt self-harm in order to hurt others, what do you think the Wuhan virus was? Essentially China using Wuhan, a critical link in the world supply chain, and shutting it down with a virus to inflict damage on the US and world for the Trade War. It also makes sense why China would willingly build hundreds of massive Ghost Cities all across China when demand was obviously not there, and in fact the population was declining — they probably have these as backup cities. Also suspicious as to why the PLA keeps sending Weather Balloons over Taiwan this year, maybe to check prevailing wind direction.

This is basically what is speculated in Russia’s strategy in Ukraine and why they have captured Chernobyl. If Russia irradiates the whole country then everyone will voluntarily leave for the most part and then Russia can hold on to it for pipelines.

Chernobyl is 100 km from Kiev.

People still live in Kiev just fine.

Taiwan is minimum 160 km from anywhere in Fujian across a strait of water that blows strong winds southbound almost constantly.

That wont trigger an evacuation.

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A proper cockup.

Those were regional graft opportunities.

Those are actually UFOs.

Can one capture a deserted, irradiated wilderness?

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For Taiwan’s semiconductor fabrication capabilities? Surely even from a Machiavellian point of view, it is better to have your own fabs in your own territory than in a subjugated province (China) or a “friend” (the West).

As countries like Singapore and Taiwan have shown, skilled talent is as real a resource of a country like oil or gold. In fact in many ways it is better, because skilled talent allows for skilled governance, economic growth and technological innovation. Meanwhile there are lots of countries out there rich with natural resources but are a mess.

An interesting theory, but I think this is implausible. The main people who would suffer would be the Chinese. If the Wuhan virus was deliberately released, why not release it in foreign cities? Why release it in your own back yard? It doesn’t make sense.

I think the more plausible reason for Ghost Cities is that wastage is what happens when bureaucrats rather than market supply-and-demand forces do the spending.

Another interesting theory but radiation, like biological pathogens, are hard to control. Moscow is close enough to Chernobyl to suffer.

Unfortunately for the Ukrainians, if the Russians decide to capture Kiev at all costs, it would be messy indeed. Western sources are already dropping hints of possible Russian future use of chemical weapons.

If you look at it from a Russian military commander’s point of view, Kiev has had weeks to prepare for a Russian siege. What was supposed to be a blitzkrieg has instead become a slow march. What do the Russians want to do? “Capture” the city? Decapitate the leadership?

Under the circumstances, to capture the city and decapitate the leadership, they only have a few options:

  1. Urban warfare - messy and protracted. A figure bandied about is a 5-to-1 attacker to defender ratio.
  2. Starve them out - politically costly and lengthy.
  3. Heavy bombardment - as Russians tend to do in urban conflicts.
  4. Use unconventional weapons. Note that so far none of the defenders in Kiev are spotted with gas masks or CBRN gear, and even if they are, the Russians have extensive experience in chemical weapons that circumvent gas masks (e.g. the Novichok agents). This fourth option gives me the shudders.
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I’ve seen some wacky stuff here but :no_mouth::no_mouth::no_mouth:.

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All fair points. Just highlighting that China might try to find other ways to “change the equation” basically.
It’s important to deter China as much as possible.