It is my estimation that even in the midst of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which the CCP is no doubt following closely, the likelihood of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is now less likely. The reasons for it are as follows:
Economic fallout
It is clear that the Russian economy is facing and will face tremendous isolation and fallout in the coming years. It would seem Russia miscalculated on how far the rest of the world would be willing to go to sanction them for what was an aggressive war of choice - apparently believing for example that the West would be reluctant to act because they need Russian oil/gas. Just today, the West has added oil/gas to their Russian sanctions.
The main tool which PRC uses to influence the world today is its immense economy. The world may or may not sanction PRC to the extent Russia has been sanctioned simply because Chinese integration into the world’s economy is too big to be cut off. However, there is a non-zero chance that it may well be sanctioned like Russia - if not for the moral imperative of preventing a bigger nation swallowing up its neighbor, then for the realpolitik reason of cutting off reliance on Chinese imports and allowing domestic industries to develop in lieu.
Domestic unrest
Connected to the first, if China’s economy is hit with sanctions, and suffers as a result, China may face domestic unrest against the CCP. The selling point of the CCP over the Chinese people is that under their leadership, the country’s economy and standard of living have progressed rapidly. What happens if this selling point is lost? Add to this the fact that body bags coming home is always unpopular, even more so if the body bag has your only child because of the One Child Policy.
Motivation of the PLA
How motivated is the average PLA soldier? Without having been in the PLA, one may suppose that they ride haughty on the wings of the rise of China as a superpower. What happens if a war with Taiwan results in the great Chinese war machine being ground down in a war of attrition? The reality of dead bodies brings into question one’s military ascendancy.
In WW2, the Nazi war machine was motivated by what was viewed as German humiliation after the Treaty of Versailles and their propaganda as the master race destined to rule. These circumstances produced a motivated army.
Unified resistance
It is evident that one thing the Russian invasion of Ukraine did, was galvanize Ukrainians against the Russians. The Russians weren’t welcomed with open arms. An invasion of Taiwan by China would almost certainly have the same effect, and reverse any gains on a people calling for a “soft” unification. Essentially, an invasion would mean that the people must be forcibly subjugated or eliminated.
The economic cost of forcibly subjugating, and maintaining control, over an unwilling population should not be underestimated. Even if the population is completely disarmed and demoralized, if people stop working, stop being productive, keep having “accidents” or resort to sabotage, it would be a net drain on the Chinese economy.
Geography of Taiwan
Taiwan has a limited range of beaches suitable for amphibious landings. A lot of Taiwan’s coastline consists of mudflats. Any amphibious landings would almost immediately be faced with urban combat. Further inshore, Taiwan’s mountainous regions present ideal ground for guerillas. Furthermore, there are a number of Taiwanese-owned islands between Taiwan and the mainland, which would need to be conquered first.
Logistics of an invasion
Learning from the Russian example of a land invasion, their advance was and is being stymied by logistical problems. A seaborne invasion of Taiwan would face the same problems, and be vulnerable to hit and run attacks, long-range missile strikes or loitering munitions/mines/area denial weapons. Therefore a seaborne invasion would be costly until the forward islands are conquered and China achieves naval and air superiority. It is estimated that it would take about a month or two for civilians to be trained to a basic level as partisans.
To what end?
What would be the practical goal of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan? Capture and assimilation of Taiwan’s economy and industrial production? There seems to be no other practical reason, the politics of “reunification” or a One China policy aside.
A messy war of conquest and subjugation would mean that Taiwan’s economy and industrial production would almost certainly be lost as a prize. So one returns to the question of what the practical, tangible benefit of a Chinese conquest of Taiwan would deliver.
What do you all think?