"any Chinese military attack against Taiwan or its offshore islands, including an economic blockade or major cyberattack against Taiwanese public infrastructure and institutions;" — these are listed as Red Lines and would be met with immediate military response by the Allied Forces should China violate any of these.
“In addition to a new Marine tactical and operational approach, the U.S. Navy will be undertaking more aggressive patrols throughout the waters off China. Some will say this is merely the military equivalent of “driving doughnut holes in your neighbor’s lawn.” But the strategic concept is clever: to gradually include other allied warships in this aggressive freedom of navigation patrols. Doing so internationalizes the pushback on Chinese claims of sovereignty over the South China Sea.”
“Major European countries are sending warships to the Indo-Pacific region amid mounting suspicion toward China over its political crackdown in Hong Kong and handling of the coronavirus outbreak.”
and Canada!
It seems all eyes are on Taiwan
There’s a few different narratives going on at the moment. One is that Xi Jinping will attempt to force Taiwan’s hand before the CCP 100 year anniversary on July 1. Although the pineapples backfiring might have changed this.
I suppose the real thing to watch out for is a rapid exodus of Taiwanese politicians and their families. This is because all sides will know of definite invasion plans with about 90s days notice. The rapid and sudden build up of military exercises aimed at containing China look like they’ve just started.
You can go back a decade and find exact the same headlines.
Xi can relax on his throne. If he risks major conflict and it backfires he is done.
Hardly. A decade ago it was all about Ma selling Taiwan out to China. Planning on opening up Taiwan’s real estate to mainland investors. And increasing cross strait capitulations while the Bush administration blocked arms sales to Taiwan. Then there was Ma’s “moment of history” when he met Xi Jinping in Singapore.
The most noticeable thing about the last 10 years is the lack of reporting on China’s missile build up aimed at Taiwan. Was much more known during the Chen Shui Bian administrations.
Too little too late, seems Xi Jinping was more intent on thumbing his nose at Taiwan rather than meeting or trying to give Ma Ying Jeou any face, so after about eight years of that Taiwan basically said, “well fuck it, if you can’t get along with the most pro China guy we could possibly give you might as well have the DPP run things”.
Which unless the DPP manage to monumentally screw things up, that is what they are going to get for the foreseeable future. Not very smart of Xi Jinping and very short sighted.
But Ma Ying Jeou will forever be referred to in the history books as the first leader from Taiwan to have a face to face with the President of China. And that’s pretty much all he was aiming for. And maybe a chance to move back to Hong Kong.
I think he was going for an embrace on Tiananmen and a seat on the Politburo as the first head of the Taiwan Special Administrative Region.
China attacking Taiwan full scale is like the second coming
Only God knows when
k-man is on it
It is imminent! Basically soon™ 
Well pick any year
Within the next 5-10 years!
The forcing mechanism is Oil and the clock is ticking. China will need to increase oil imports to sustain itself over the next 4 years. Beyond that, China has about 4 to 5 years worth of additional Oil Reserves.
Think about this – China will not be able to produce enough oil on its own and eventually will become 90%+ reliant on imports – this is a very very dangerous position to be in when you have 1.4 billion person economy.
Except for Russia (Russia provides ~15% of China’s oil imports), the rest of its oil imports need to come through the shipping lanes from countries like:
(2019 stats)
- Saudi Arabia: US$40.1 billion (16.8% of China’s total imported crude oil)
- Russia: $36.5 billion (15.3%)
- Iraq: $23.7 billion (9.9%)
- Angola: $22.7 billion (9.5%)
- Brazil: $18.5 billion (7.8%)
- Oman: $16.4 billion (6.9%)
- Kuwait: $10.8 billion (4.5%)
- United Arab Emirates: $7.3 billion (3.1%)
- Iran: $7.1 billion (3%)
- United Kingdom: $6.3 (2.7%)
- Congo: $5.54 billion (2.3%)
- Malaysia: $5.5 billion (2.3%)
- Colombia: $5.4 billion (2.3%)
- Libya: $4.8 billion (2%)
- Venezuela: $4.4 billion (1.9%)
Looking at the list above, except for Russia, many of those countries would be easy for the Allied Forces to squeeze, and cut off supply to China if it comes to that. A conflict in the middle east could immediately impact 45% of China’s oil imports alone…I cannot stress enough how much China is walking on eggshells with this oil situation – they are very aware of that though, hence the heightened CCP activities and BRI. Reportedly China has ~5,000 PLA troops in Saudi Arabia through various quid pro quo arrangements and is why China built an Airbase in Djibouti (right next to French and American airbases and close to SA) and wants to expand it further.
I think the United States and Allied Forces will use this to their advantage – it sounds counterintuitive, but sustained presence in the Middle East might be the only way to counter China’s expansion in the short term.
China so far has tried to secure the shipping lanes for the Oil by building a network of island naval bases in the south china sea, and various infrastructure in neighboring countries which allow for defensive actions and resources to flow quicker into China.
Taiwan is part of the issue because China cannot obtain full control of the Taiwan Strait without American or EU interference unless they geographically have full control of Taiwan itself – further to the north its the same story with the Senkaku’s – China needs the shipping lanes clear and under their total control to prevent blockades and interference.
With exception of Guangdong and cities like Chongqing, the majority of the Chinese population is located north of the Taiwan Strait.
(excuse the map error for including Taiwan as part of China)
Also you can see how critical the Yangtze River is with its entry point being north of the Taiwan Strait - if oil tankers and containers can’t go through the Taiwan Strait (or around Taiwan), the tankers can’t get to inner cities like Wuhan and Chongqing - the country would be crippled inside and out pretty much.
China’s Achilles Heel is if they are cut off from oil imports – and they know this, that is why they are doing everything possible to be prepared for a scenario where oil imports are totally cut off. That is why China is building a complete defense against an Oil Embargo; like the one the US used against Japan in WWII. They need the buffer to be as big as possible.
The other issue to look out for is a pivot – what if China strikes oil big time in the SCS near the naval bases? what if its more than enough for China and they don’t need the Middle Eastern or Russian oil anymore? I think in that case, the US would lose what little else it has for leverage, and it would be even more likely that it would be a direct conflict between the Allied Forces and China.
It’s more the mass sell-off of real estate held by KMT politicians.
There is a clear message being sent to China by the International community regarding the defense of Taiwan and the contested areas in the SCS.
From what I have read of the Taiwanese, they are not being lulled into complacency. They are actively asking for the International communities assistance and it is arriving from many nations.
The world wants peace, and it is best achieved through the projection of strength and a commitment to use it against any nation violating the security of others.
Well you can take about 800 million off that number. And there’s the transition to EV’s and China’s renewables program that’s well under way.
I would suggest the desire to dig up the South China Sea oil and gas reserves has more to do with a couple of families wanting to be stinking rich. All while using $2 an hour slave labour.
I think the unusually cold winter for the North of China really hit home this year. And Xi Jinping has not come out smelling like roses. Hence the need for drastic action to distract and already angry populace.
Seeing as how the US military has never officially relinquished Taiwan following Taiwan’s surrender in WW2 I highly doubt that the US would basically hand up the Pacific Ocean on a platter by letting the island come under their control at this point. Taiwan is crucial for China’s bluewater navy capabilities.
As for the potential of finding enough oil to at least manage their military needs it’s sort of a moot point. China is one of the most drastically affected countries if sea levels rise due to global warming. I mean you’re talking 800 million displaced people. There’s also their aging population to consider. And the ruling cabal’s embrace of profit (for themselves) over everything else.
Having spent time with a number of mainlanders, and people you wouldn’t call stupid, I found the blind loyalty and allegiance to the status quo quite alarming. It seems all those CIA devised IQ tests and populace dumbing down programs really worked.
Follow up…
“President and CEO Amin Nasser reaffirms Aramco’s commitment to supporting China’s growth at the China Development Forum”
https://twitter.com/aramco/status/1373666023874830337?s=21
China is gravely dependent on these imports. The Middle East imports are the beating heart of China right now, any future conflict in the Middle East at this late stage in China’s oil consumption would be like undergoing open heart surgery - it’s a risk China is not open to taking.
This is a crazy prediction, but I would not be surprised if China, very publicly in the near future, deployed up to 100,000 PLA troops to the Middle East to secure their supply in the next year or so. Including PLA-Navy, PLA-Air Force, etc.
Look at this guy. Fully supporting a genocide of people believing in his religion.
and vice versa, but when forced to choose between the US and china i think it would be crazy to assume the saudis would choose the communists. for now, there is no war, and business is business
yes, it makes more sense for them to just get it from iran, which is also the greatest destabilizing force in the persian gulf
exploitation of other muslims happens in front of everyone in saudi arabia, nobody cares.
this was a sobering read
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-03-21/niall-ferguson-a-taiwan-crisis-may-end-the-american-empire