i’ve wondered what both china and the US might have hidden. remember the first stealth bomber? that was secret for years. who knows what both sides have been developing in secret. this element of the unknown unknown is another thing that makes launching an attack risky for china.
To me it’s a question of violent skirmishes breaking out over a period or a one off full scale attack (with some element of surprise )
What do folks think more likely ? I would say violent skirmishes. Not good either because end point is unknown.
Yes, until the numbers overwhelm them. What can you do? Shoot down a few planes and risk being heavily bombed? China could muster its entire force and get an easy victory.
They only hope that their ultimate bluff pays off - keep the western powers out.
As explained here:
“ Beijing would either have to deter the United States from intervening or defeat nearby U.S. forces and prevent others from entering the region. ”
China has used HK to test the response of the US and the west. If this were the world of 1945, a telegram from Washington would have deterred Beijing. But the reality of today is different and the US and west are not interested or capable of stopping Chinese influence in the region.
Taiwan has US backing it.
That’s why it’s still around. I don’t think the US backing is an empty promise. Taiwan just needs to survive a certain amount of time.
If China can’t take over the island quickly the administration there will face a disastrous situation , with severely damaged economy and political status.
A stalemate is bad for Taiwan but as bad or worse for China.
The west yes.
The US…No. I think the US is going to assist Taiwan in any conflict.
Imperialist violation of Canadian sovereignty! Hurts the feelings of the Canadian people!
Taiwan’s KMT-leaning senior officers ensure that China knows everything there is to know about the ROC military
Verbally. US cannot even put it down in writing. So I would doubt that assistance.
Congressional act.
More important are the actions of the US . They are not leaving Taiwan and the Taiwan straits to the Chinese.
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There’s no act which says something like an attack on Taiwan is an attack on the US and US is bound to respond. CMiIW.
Yea I know.
But the US also has close relations with Taiwan, military and also economically .
They have many congressional supporters and also support from different presidential administration’s .
Also Taiwan semiconductor industry is a critical economic lynchpin.
The admiral of Pacific US fleet just made a statement about what he needs which is a serious ramping up of their budget. What does he need that for except a conflict involving Taiwan ?
Don’t doubt either China’s resolve or US resolve to fight a war. The US should end ambiguity on this IMHO.
one off attack. otherwise, after the first violent skirmish there will be cause to put US troops in taiwan. the chinese can’t risk aggressive escalation like that without finishing the job.
yes, i agree this is true now. in 5 years, this might be a different story
yes, i would agree this is true. i also think if they have to destroy the island to take it over they will lose everything except the territory (e.g. they will lose face at home, infrastructure and capital, the respect of the developed world,)
They don’t want to escalate. Makes sense not to put it in writing any more than it is, what’s the point. I would not doubt that assistance
That would be treason.
Really? Why put all these in writing ?
Are you asking me why? Why they wrote this in 1949? Or why they aren’t writing something stronger in 2021?
But these often happen accidentally.
Can do. Sometimes it is an excuse (archduke Ferdinand) or a fabrication (Tonkin). Right now there are no mechanisms in place to prevent this, very dangerous. But, what I thought I was answering was your question about how the Chinese would choose to do it…
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From the other thread.
This admiral knows what he needs to prepare for and not afraid to say it out loud.
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Quick wiki search shows this is the first time the Suez has ever been totally blocked by a ship by accident.
Anyone have knowledge of prior accidental blocking of the Suez like this?
I’m thinking this is not an accident, it is a negotiation tactic against China and Russia (2 for 1, buy one get one free!) A lot of Russian Oil goes through the Suez, and a lot of Oil goes to China through the Suez (maybe ~8 to10%, doesn’t sound like a lot but its still impactful - add to this traffic back up on shipments of cargo and it can be a big headache)
So far the reason behind this is:
Around 07.40 on 23 March 2021, the container ship Ever Given was caught by an unexpected gust of wind which slewed her sideways across the channel. The ship ran aground blocking navigation in both directions and trapping a number of other ships. The canal authorities have re-opened a section of the older canal to enable some ships to by-pass the obstruction. Refloating the Ever Given is thought to take some days to complete.
Here is weather obs from Suez today:
17mph winds gusting to 22mph.
It’s hard to believe a 20 to 25mph wind gust listed a Golden Class container ship forcing it to run aground – Do we have any experts on the board that know about wind gust effects on Cargo Ships?
EDIT- i see a different explanation here than on Wikipedia:
GAC, a global shipping and logistics company, described the Ever Given as suffering “a blackout while transiting in a northerly direction,” without elaborating.
Yeah, well, them and Saudi Arabia and Turkey…but yeah.
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Olympics? 2022?