US Dollar meltdown coming?

[quote]
The Dollar’s Full System Meltdown

by Mike Whitney
opednews.com

The U.S. Dollar is kaput. Confidence in the currency is eroding by the day.

A report in The Sydney Morning Herald stated, "Australia's Treasurer Peter Costello has called on East Asia's central bankers to 'telegraph' their intentions to diversify out of American investments and ensure an 'orderly adjustment'....Central banks in China, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Hong Kong have channeled immense foreign reserves into American government bonds, helping to prop up the US dollar and hold down interest rates,' said Costello, but 'the strategy has changed.'"

Indeed, the strategy has changed. The world has come to its senses and is moving away from the green slip of paper that is currently mired in $8.3 trillion of debt.

The central banks now want to reduce their USD reserves while trying to do as little damage to their own economies as possible. That’ll be difficult. If a sell-off ensues, it will start a stampede for the exits.

There’s little hope of an “orderly adjustment” as Costello opines; that’s just false optimism. When the greenback begins listing; things will turn helter-skelter quickly.

In September, we saw early signs that the dollar was in trouble. The trade deficit registered at $70 billion but the Net Foreign Security Purchases (NFSP) came in at a paltry $33 billion. That means that our main trading partners are no longer buying back our debt which puts downward pressure on the greenback. The Fed had two choices; either raise interest rates substantially or let the currency fall. Given the tenuous condition of the housing bubble and the proximity of the midterm elections, the Fed did neither.

A month later, in October, the trade deficit hit $69.9 billion but, then, without warning, a miracle occurred. The Net Foreign Security Purchases skyrocketed to a “historic high” of $116.8 billion; covering both months’ shortfalls almost to the penny.

Coincidence?

Not likely. Either the skittish central banks decided to “stock up” on their dollar-denominated investments or the Federal Reserve (and their banking-buddies) is buying back its own debt to float us through the elections.

This is exactly the kind of hanky-panky that people expected when Greenspan stopped publishing the M-3 last March keeping the rest of us in the dark about what was really going on with the money supply.

Are we supposed to believe that the skeptical central banks suddenly doubled up on their T-Bills while they’re (publicly) moaning about the dollar’s weakness and threatening to diversify?

That’s a stretch.

According to the Wall Street Journal the Chinese Central-bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan stated unequivocally that “We think we’ve got enough.” The Chinese presently have nearly $1 trillion in USD and US Treasuries.

“Enough”?

The United States runs a $200 billion per year trade deficit with China. If they’ve “got enough” we’re dead-ducks. After all, it doesn’t take a sell-off to kill the dollar, just unwillingness on the part of the main players to stop purchasing at the same rate.

Of course, everyone in Washington already knew that doomsday was approaching. That’s the way the system was designed from the very beginning. It’s all part of the madcap scheme to “starve the beast” and transfer the nation’s wealth to a handful of western plutocrats. That’s explains why the Fed and the White House whirred along like two spokes on the same wheel; every policy calculated to thrust the country headlong toward disaster.[/quote]

More at the source here.

This sounds kind of ugly. Unless, of course, it’s all propaganda put out by the DEMS. Of course GWB wouldn’t be robbing the people. He’s a GOP. They’re never nasty. They’re brave sorts.

Oh. Better quote the end:

[quote]So, how will this cadre of plutocrats coerce the other nations to continue to use the dollar while it plummets from its perch?

Oil.

As long as oil is denominated in dollars, the central banks will be forced to stockpile American scrip regardless of its value. It’s no different than holding a gun to someone’s head. They will use our debt-plagued greenbacks or their cars and trucks will sputter, their tractors and factories will wheeze, and their economies will grind to a halt. It’s just that simple.

America cannot maintain its superpower status unless it continues to control the global economic system. That means the linkage between the dollar and oil must be preserved. The Bush troupe sees this as an existential issue upon which the future of America’s ruling class depends. By 2020, 60% of the world’s oil will come from the Middle East. Bush will do everything in his power to control the resources of the Caspian Basin, thereby expanding US dollar-hegemony and paving the way for a new American century.[/quote]

If you believe this, buy gold.

HG

[quote=“Huang Guang Chen”]If you believe this, buy gold.

HG[/quote]

Well, some people did, although the above story might just be “old news” by now, if this Reuters article is correct:

[quote]Platinum, gold rally falters after U.S. jobs data
Fri Nov 3, 2006 11:40 AM ET

By Pratima Desai

LONDON (Reuters) - Platinum rallied 5 percent on talk of a new exchange-traded fund and gold hit a fresh eight-week high on Friday, but prices corrected after the U.S. unemployment rate fell to a 5-1/2 year low, traders said.

The stronger jobs data persuaded some investors to sell the precious metals they had bought earlier this week as a safe-haven investment, when the dollar fell on worries about the deteriorating health of the U.S. economy.

Spot gold <XAU=> was at 1550 GMT quoted at $624.50/$625.50 an ounce, up from $623.90/4.90 late in New York on Thursday, but below an earlier session peak of $626.75 an ounce, a level last seen in early September.

“All precious metals fell back … U.S. jobs data punctured sentiment, but it’s probably only temporary … these numbers are usually very volatile,” a trader said.

“Every other bit of data we’ve seen from the U.S. this week has been positive for gold and precious metals.”

U.S. unemployment fell to 4.4 percent in October, the lowest since 4.3 percent in May 2001, from 4.6 percent in September.
[snip]

Investors piled into gold earlier as a spate of weak data from the United States suggested the world’s largest economy may be heading for a hard landing, which also pushed the dollar to one-month lows against the euro and helped gold.

When the U.S. currency falls it makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for investors in other currencies.[/quote]

It’s a long-term story. People who believe in a US dollar meltdown are looking at gold hitting US$3,000 an ounce by the end of the decade.

In any case, gold jumped back up after that dip in London. Typically it was the US market which lifted it.

HG

I think it is possible, but unlikely. I think it is unlikely for a number of reasons mostly that the Japanese and the Chinese couldn’t afford a melt down in US currency. They buy US debt because they need the US market to be able to buy their trade goods. A melt down in the US dollar would spell disaster for China and potential political instability. The same could be said for Japan. Though Japan could potentially grow with a declining US economy and devalued currency, I don’t think China has that capacity.

Right now these two countries have bought so much US debt that if the US dollar collapsed they would lose big time getting out and would see their own economies suffer. The US has been the devil in this arrangement. No doubt there. On the other hand the US would benefit from a downturn in its dollar. It wouldn’t spend a long time languishing so ultimately the US would see a huge transfer in assets away from the Chinese and Japanese back toward their economy. China and Japan would languish and this would only create opportunities for a resurgent US. That is the scenario the Asian economies want to avoid the most. They have been building huge war chests for years they’d be loath to see it all transfered back to the US.

Silly question 101

Why do countries by US debt? Can you dumb the converstation down for a moment, so I can keep up. It’s really intersting.

The short answer is that they buy US debt in the shape of US treasury bonds in order to stop their own currencies rising too much against the US dollar. Keeping their currencies low means they offer more attractive pricing for their exports.

Here’s a pie chart showing who owns what of the US national debt.

HG

:runaway: Aaaaagh! runaway runaway the gold bugs are back! My mother-in-law gave us a bar of gold for our wedding and I keep waiting for that thing appreciate. Took us a while to get back into the positive.

Thanks to HGC for showing the facts (and this chart should also put to rest the debt selling USD crash conspiracy theorists)

My understanding is; (I could be wrong), as long as there are no major changes in the LT growth (with the implications on Purchasing Parity and Productivity) for the US economy, there are lower limits to where the USD can drop, though in the short term markets can be irrational or subject to distortions like government intervention, or as in this case, the suddent stopping of gov. intervention.

The question I have is how long is the USD going to remain a ‘core’ trading currency.

The US has used debt (for example bonds) to finance its government spending. Typically the government has two sources of money bonds or taxes. It can also print money but that is inflationary( though it does transfer wealth to the government). They borrow money through bonds and offer interest in return. When we say someone buys debt (in this case) what they are really doing is just buying bonds. A promise to pay you back later with interest. If the government takes on a lot of debt then naturally there are fewer people attracted to buy that debt because of the risk of default. Consequently, the government has to offer higher interest rates to attract more buyers for its bonds. This can affect domestic lending as well and rise interest rates in general in the US economy (there are a number of ways this can occur).

Typically higher interest rates lead to a slowing of your economy and consequently a fall in the value of your currency. However, in the case of the US the Japanese and Chinese and other Asian countries which export to the US have been buying US bonds at very low interest rates. Why would they do this? Because if they didn’t nobody would. In which case the US economy would collapse under the weight of its own debt, i.e., the government would have to charge the real value for its debt which would mean very high interest rates to domestic borrowers and raise taxes. If its economy collapsed so too would its currency. If its currency collapses than the Chinese and Japanese are shit out of luck because they need a strong US dollar so that US consumers can buy their products cheaply.

In order to combat this the Chinese and Japanese keep buying US debt. Unfortunately, for them the US keeps on spending so in order to avoid a collapse in the US economy they keep on lending. The question is how long can they keep doing that and since they have already done so much of it can they really afford to stop doing it. If they stop then a collapse is an almost certainty. In which case their economies will collapse too and they’ll be left holding US denominated debt at a value a lot less than they paid for it.

If the US would stop spending they’d be fine, because the US is the only economy with the capacity to payback that kind of debt.

The interesting thing is a crash would more than likely benefit the US so they have little incentive to stop. However, I’m sure that is very contentious thinking.

China holds a lot of the US national debt, but they also have very close to 1 trillion USD in foreign currency reserves, most of which is in USD. Whilst the US only has a fraction of that.

If they started a sell-off, or even simply stop purchasing more US debt when there notes are up for renewal then there would be trouble ahead for the US. Of course if China does not prop up the USD (by servicing the debt), then the US economy tanks, people stop spending and no one will be buying all of their products, so it will kill their ecomony.

They ain’t stupid so it shouldn’t happen, we hope! If it does happen I’m sure they will try to do it in some sort of controlled way. Like not stopping servicing the debt but not increasing the amount.

It all seems a weird way to run the global economy, doesn’t it?

I believe the US dollar achieved its special position largely by being the currency oil is bought and sold in. Some say that is the real reason for the Americal activity in the Middle East - the great game continuing with America going all-out to stop any group of oil exporters from selling in Euros.

I am a bit worried about the possible meltdown scenario though. I think the article, while maybe a bit hysterical, takes account of the fact that sometimes, an unstoppable economic trend evolves into a panic that cause much more damage than a “correction”. But perhaps with most of the volatile US debt being held by Asian governments, I guess we can feel some comfort according to the arguments made here.

Global economy is an evil cult.