If the US chooses to increase customs duty on most imports, that will be bad for profits and could increase inflation and lead to rate hikes. Even worse if a trade war breaks out.
On the other hand, there could be strong political pressure on the FED to cut rates which is usually good for the stock market. Also, less regulation (regarding environment, labor rights etc.) can also lead to higher profits and thus higher stock prices.
Then, there is the issue about tax cuts which could be a two-edged sword: Those could benefit consumer and business spendings - but too much of them and the US debt will skyrocket even more which could upset investors.
I think Taiwan is the big thing here. If the white house yields to China, in any way, it’ll be great for the stocks short term but I have no doubt China will win the tech race in the end.
If US continues twisting the knife, US stock can only go up, though it might be more gradual.
I believe they are big in battery tech and solar tech and some nuclear energy tech. Some of their consumer service companies such as TikTok are dominant and more innovative in terms of using AI (hence they serve me titties all day …jk).
All countries start by stealing to upgrade their industrial base, the US did the same from the UK going back to the early 19th century.
I’m not concerned about money. America is all about making money at the end of the day.
I am concerned about a whole bunch of other geopolitical and environmental stuff.
What makes you think they won’t except stereotypes? People said the same thing 20 years ago. Then they took fancy manufacturing bases, then they started producing their own cheap stuff, then they upgraded to producing their own electronics, then to cars. Now they’re dominating truly new segments, EVs, batteries and solar. They are going up the value chain fast. It’s the same thinking that got Germany where it is today.
By wining the race I mean just catching up, that winning for them and I’m not saying they’ll be unbeatable but it’s not gonna be fun. We live in Pax Americana and I wanna keep living in it and that means no peer powers for the states.
It does seem a little naive, or arrogant, that “the west”, thinks china can’t keep up. That whole hollow country argument. We cna hope, but never under estimate true oppression and long term brain washing. Not great to forget their governemnt has little to no responsibilities to their people, and have a lot of people to throw away at any given project (including war). I think a lot of people tend to get too into the weeds in a specific aspect of a specific industry and forget to step back and see the bigger picture. They don’t need to have the technically best whatever tool. They can have the second best and 5x the people to use them and easily come out ahead.
I’m guessing America no longer wants to police the world and ensure freedom of the seas. Or that it’s becoming like Russia where the oligarchs control everything.
I’m thinking that other countries are going to figure out how to maintain peace while America basically just implodes.
The market has been on a 20 year run with 3 downturns for the housing market crash and 2 covid related drops. Moves in the market are generally outside something outside the President’s control other than short term reactionary bumps. That said, specific stocks / industries / sectors will move more than others due to specific policies (or running of the mouth without policy).
That said, both the Senate and the House being in Republican hands has the potential to juice the markets as people get excited about lower corporate taxes and fucking off with environmental regulations and the like.
If people use money as the metric, then it’s easy to obtain. Why? Because one need not care about other metrics. Ie. Morals, ethics, legal and etc.
Any idiot can make easy money anytime if they only care about money (excluding other common metrics).
Kind of a simple concept. It’s like investing in say Foxconn or Formosa plastics in Taiwan. Clearly the only metric one cares about is money. Perhaps with a 10% share in time. No fucks given about long term societal, economic, ethic related issues. Short term personal gain. In that sense, easy to make money. Thus, easy to achieve.