Trump might change his mind tomorrow, no trust left in him…
Stupid. Stupid and random is WTF.
There’s a chance this might backfire with the retail and 401k folks. Obviously some will be relieved, but some just got reamed.
Whatever, it’s the market beast.
Up bigly after bottom-fishing the last 3 trading days.
Taiwan market should be up huge when it opens.
Zhang ting ban
My guy was saying people were having a hard time getting out with the limits, now it’ll be tough to get back in
Yeah, that’s why market timing usually doesn’t work out in the long-run. Sure - if you have insider information, it definitely can. Or if you’re either lucky and/or an extremely high-skilled person. But for most, not trying to time the market is actually the best strategy (on average).
The big issue is… that the markets trust is gone… For companies, they will be extremely careful to do any investments, who knows what will happen tomorrow, better to save the money and invest another year…. It’s not worth the risk for the companies to do any big investment decisions now
I am not certainly sure that the market has a “good memory”. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same story unfolding in 90 days when this tariff pause ends: First, everyone will assume that they won’t go into effect, so markets won’t be affected at first. Then - surprise! - they go into effect again and everyone panics and sells and the market tanks. Then, some announcement and everything recovers. Rinse and repeat…
But yeah - high volatility is usually not good for individual investors. Not a good environment to invest for the long-term when the stock market does +/- 5% regularly during the day…
I was more talking about the markets trust from companies perspective, if not knowing the future politics, better to hold off on investments for some time… This delays of investments is really hurting the economy, not just for that company but for all companies dependent on them…
Building a new factory? Where? What interest rates? Where to sell the products? Competition? What the hell is going on… time to retire… 
The talk in board rooms across the world today…
Yeah, the US has always been a “safe heaven” for investments - political stability and certainty of the law being big factors. I can see how this trust might start to erode if the administration seems to openly manipulate the markets to their liking and the SEC being quiet…
Yet, at the same time, the US is still “too big to ignore” - the alternative of doing nothing (despite the current situation) is also not viable for most companies…
We’ll see how things will play out, I guess…
While under normal circumstances I would agree, this has V shaped recovery written all over it.
Very true, companies needs to continue doing their business, otherwise they die anyway, however with less trust it might turn to a decision to only acquire company B, not follow through on plans to acquire company C and D
Let’s see how things looks in the fall, I am still optimistic for positive economy, but it took longer time for Trump to fold than expected so more worries now than last week
I think there’s a big gap fill coming while this plays out, then if the China tariffs don’t get pulled back to something reasonable, another big pull back.
Which will be about as transparent as this fall and swoop back up has been.
It emphasizes that you don’t put all your eggs in one basket doesn’t it. Also if investors thought they were safe putting money in EU, India or China still weren’t because it’s a global issue all are comnected. I think India is probably better placed though.
Diversification is the key, as always,
Let’s see if the recovery continues or if Trump speaks again…
US futures down, profit taking or de-risk probably
China going up
Europe will jump today as US did yesterday
Commodities going up
No dead cats bounce that high
Here’s the entire Dimon interview from last night.
BARTIROMO: So what do you think about the tariff plan?
DIMON: I think it is perfectly reasonable for someone to say that trade was unfair. There were unfair trade things. And remember, it’s not just tariffs, it’s tariffs. I think they have the VAT wrong, how they understand it, and I think they should really get a better understanding to make it easy to negotiate.
But there are all these non-tariff barriers around food and energy and then subsidies, which, you know, China is famous for. So it’s totally reasonable to say we want to make trade better. But I also want to point out to the Americans, we have the best economy in the world. Our GDP per person is $85,000. China’s is $15,000.
So you got to put a little bit into context. But, you know – and then, of course, when they put the tariffs, and it was way beyond what people expected, that will cause a inflation, slow down growth. But I hope what they really do is let Scott Bessent, when he’s professional, negotiate, and I know Japan is here. I gather Korea, Vietnam have called, and then eventually Europe.
Get those things done quickly. If you want to calm down the markets, show progress in those things and let Scott take the time. Trade deals are very large and very complex. They can’t be done overnight, but you really have to have teams working to get them right.
BARTIROMO: It sounds like you’re taking a calm head in the face of all of this, despite the fact that we’ve seen $6 trillion in market value wiped out in about a week?
DIMON: Yeah, I’m taking a calm view, but I think it could get worse if we don’t make some progress here. And of course, you know, trade wars, as you saw China raised the race today, you know, and people get angry, and they’re going to have responses. And every country has got choices. So there are short term choices, there are long term choices.
And I also want to point out, if you kind of look forward in the next 60 days, every company is going to be telling you guys what it means to them. I think today I saw a Delta remove their guidance and things like that will affect stock prices again. So this – it’s not over yet. And then you’ve seen tremendous moves in swap prices, asset prices, Treasury prices. There’s a 10-year Treasury auction today, and how they go. So, yeah, let them settle down. Take a deep breath, negotiate some trade deals. That’s the best thing they can do.
Speaker Johnson just protected Trump’s tariffs by slipping in legislation to bar action on legislation aimed at terminating the national emergency that Trump declared to impose his tariffs. Basically Johnson was worried Republicans would join Democrats to try to rein in Trump’s random tariffs.
But the methodology shows the extreme efforts and amount of energy Johnson will use to protect Trump. . The National Emergencies Act used to impose his “reciprocal” tariffs states that if lawmakers introduce a resolution to nullify the emergency, it has to get a vote within 15 days. So what does Johnson do? The House bill blocks nullification by stating that the days between Wednesday and Sept. 30 “shall not constitute a calendar day for purposes of section 202 of the National Emergencies Act.”
That’s right bubba. Congress cannot act to rein in the President because Congress declares the next 15 days do not exist with regards to this bill. What is next? I guess they could simply pass a bill saying that days in the next 3 years and 8 months (or 20 years for that matter) do not exist with regards to any specific time duration linked bills.
That would also give Trump another four years, since most of the previous four didn’t exist on the calendar!