That’s because underneath all that mumbo jumble legal talk “material breach” blah blah, ie smokescreen, this invasion is about [show of] power and money and oil. u think if the us discovered a replenishable free energy source in oklahoma, a miracle to be sure, they would give a rat’s ass about some desert hole? bye bye sauds. bye bye kuwaitis. maybe… but a hell of a smaller chance at that. this is not about UN and international law. Bush has said himself he will forego the UN if things don’t go his way. This is about realpolitik.[/quote]
I’ve already discussed this with you and explained the difference between the U.S.'s strategic interest in the region and its particular reasons for going to war. One should not be confused with the other. Your reductionism is silly. If you put on the right blinkers, every war the U.S. has ever participated in can be thought to have enhanced its economic interests. But markets generally don’t like wars – they are too unstable and too unpredictable.[/quote]
if I am reductionist, then you are generalizing. I wouldn’t say every US. invasion ever was primarily out of economic interests (there is always of course more than one reason, some “weighing more” than others). but there have been a few where economics was a large factor (Monroe Doctrine… Hawaii… Meiji Japan… Cuba come to mind)
but your statement that markets generally don’t like wars… is way too generalist. yah, maybe if you’re taking macroeconomics 101. but if you’re in a specific industry or providing a specific resource like oil (or petro-related) or perhaps you’re lockheed or raytheon providing arms, then perhaps not. or what if you’re in a position that your intended gain or aims bring you more profits than the unstability of war? Greater profits can lead one to ignore the consequences of war.
and again, I’m not saying that this invasion was SOLELY based on oil. but oil is a major factor for SOME players. for OTHERS, it is POWER/SHOW OF POWER, and PROFIT (whether economic or otherwise)
your condescension, I can do without. (typically American-like i might add)[/quote]
If you don’t like my condescension, then stop repeating yourself as if this ground hasn’t been covered with you before.
Your arguments on the effect of war on an economy is largely incomprehensible and, of what little I can make out of it, without merit. Of course, specific industries might benefit from war, but on a national level, wars are rarely helpful to an economy. I doubt the U.S. oil industry makes up more than 1 to 2% of the national economy. The defense industry is larger, but still probably no more than 5% of the U.S. national economy. That leaves well over 90% of the U.S. economy outside the hands of those whom you think might personally benefit form this war. You think any leader is going to go far in a democracy on those kinds of percentages?
Wars have helped national economies in the past, but largely as an incidental effect. It was not so much war as the massive deficit spending for WW2 – politically impossible in peacetime – that boosted the U.S. economy out of the Great Depression. The U.S. Civil War had a similar effect on infrastructure in the north. But Vietnam War and the Korean conflict did not help the U.S. economy, nor in the short run, did the first Persian Gulf War. Vietnam, for example, combined with the spending of the Great Society heavily contributed to inflationary pressures of the 1970s.[/quote]
Yes but oil is one thing the US ABSOLUTELY NEEDS to maintain economic performance and stability. Any decrease in oil supply add massive costs to every oil-deficient economy. Oil and energy are critically important for getting votes in elections. People feel oil hikes directly and very quickly, especially in the US with big engines. If you get queues to the gas station mr. joe average will be thinking ‘what the hell is that fella doing in the white house’.
Electricity costs and energy blackouts will quickly lose a man his job (Mr. Davis may be getting out very soon…).
So oil is certainly more important than its basic contribution as an industry. It’s literally the grease that helps keep economies turning. Oil propped up Saddam and other tin pots and it propped up a war against the tin pots too. If oil is taken off economic equations for reconstruction of Iraq the US will have a huge weight on its budget for the next few years. I don’t think the president of the US would go to war with this weight unless he thought it could be counterbalanced by helping to control oil supply and prices and the promise that Iraq can at least be self sufficient in the medium term. The financial markets certainly wouldn’t take too kindly too it.[/quote]
Thank you HHII. The oil industry, as CF alleges, might be 1-2% of the national economy (and you don’t say what percentage of what…rental space?), but its effects spill into a large amount of other industries e.g. the petrochemicals like DOW, as well as being the source of energy that powers industry as HHII says. and if tomorrow people run out of pencils and clothes and nike shoes and mobile phones to buy, they’re not gonna be as angry if they run out of oil to power their SUV, their station wagon, their C class Benz. (and all those consumer goods too require planes, ships, trucks, and trains to bring them to your mall or store, and they ain’t powered by solar panel or fusion you know)
And yet again, you preach this macroeconomic, broad national overview spout when it is irrelevant to my argument. What does it matter if the economy overall is bad, but the government is still buying tomahawk missiles at a few million a pop by the dozen. What does it matter if there’s a 5% unemployment rate when it doesn’t affect the bottom line of certain companies and individuals?
Let’s take another example. Consider an engineering giant like Bechtel. Are they going to have bigger profits in a peaceful, but in an economic doldrum US that already has a built-up infrastructure, or in Iraq where everything has already been blown to bits, the US govt is there holding the pursestrings, and the company, through some good connections and wining/dining, can guarantee it can be earmarked a hundred million for the rebuiliding effort. Does it matter that the US economy is shit on the home front? Does it matter than Joe Schmuck is living on unemployment? Does it even matter if he had a job, because Bechtel is not going to be coming to him for a multi-million dollar contract.
Ridicule all you like, but instead of spouting this theoretical bullshit, statistics about the GNP, and macroeconomic theory, why don’t we get into the meat a little. get CONCRETE (add a little aggregate and sand to this argument will you!)