Eventually the silicon boom will subside and things will level off. Then, Taiwan will need to start looking for new areas of the economy to grow. One of them involves being a business hub, especially given Hong Kong’s demise.
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What is your definition of a “business hub”? I’m guessing you mean finance, but that won’t happen for fifteen million reasons.
Hong Kong is going nowhere. It’s the gateway for money to get in and out China. The PRC is still looking to attract foreign investment and investors still want to invest in China, although less than before. There is little willingness to liberalize another city like HK in China.
There is zero chance of Taiwan replacing Hong Kong without reunification and that is not fucking likely to happen.
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GDP growth, exports volume and the stock market only tells you so much about the health of a society. Not everyone in Taiwan works in the boom manufacturing industries. In my district in Taipei a lot of stores have closed and have for rent signs up. On Fri/Sat nights a lot of places that used to be packed have just few people. Popular cafes I used to go to are empty most of the time. I’ve ask restaurant owners how their business is doing and if they think they’ll survive. Very few are hopeful. They are hanging on by a thread. These businesses don’t drive the Taiwan economy but without them life quality here sucks.
I came to Taiwan to get closer to my roots and loved it for the first 2 years but coming back in August after I was in the US for most of the year has been depressing. The energy is basically gone. People are more afraid and less trusting. There’s no end in sight to the arbitrary and non science based restrictions and isolationism. Every time there’s a potential breach the fear gets ratched up to level 100 and then come schizophrenic knee jerk reactions like forcing 100 families into quarantine and closing indoor dining in NTC while it’s open right next door in Taipei. In my own family I see more isolationism/racism/anti-foreigner sentiment and mistrust of government institutions.
Meanwhile other parts of the world are getting on with life. Which ironically is good for Taiwan’s economy because that’s whos buying all the stuff made here.
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Other parts of the world are above 70% vaccination and have already had hundreds of thousands of citizens die. Not sure what’s going to happen when we reach 70% vax rate, but we got a million vaxxed in the last 4 days so hopefully we won’t have to wait too much longer to find out.
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Taiwan isnt that reliant on domestic consumption. Honestly everything is going to be fine, they just messed up.the vaccine procurement
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Saying it again. GDP growth, exports volume and the stock market only tells you so much about the health of a society. I’m happy if you’re getting yours but it’s wrong to say money is everything for quality of life and the people in the country must be doing great just because a rich minority are seeing their bank accounts swell.
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The original claim was that Taiwan is suffering as a “business hub” because borders were closed.
You are right that covid has been tough on many industries. I’m not talking about a rich minority, most of Taiwan’s economy is export driven, domestic consumption is proportionally low.
Exactly what @koury writes
Yep, it’s not only the export industry that is needed to keep a country doing well. If life quality is not good and unemployment going up, people will finally realize it’s no good continuing that way…
And people remember and in the long term it will be hard to get the talents needed to keep the export industry up. Life quality in Taiwan was quite good - but already the Level 2 restrictions in May felt about as bad as lockdown in Europe.
People will understand a bit if the lockdown right now continues for some more weeks, but then it has to open up, and do that super quick not slowly staged.
And yeah - the being afraid of foreigners or actually anyone could already be felt before May 2021…
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Are you from a family that leans blue?
If so, the latter is pretty much based on their media diet, and par for the course.
Guy
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Jesus. Taiwan doesn’t have issues with unemployment and for the fifteen billionth time, it’s not going to stay this way forever and nobody wants it to. Most of society understands that sacrifices need to be made for good of the whole.
Does anyone like read the news here?
I think attitudes will vary based on which media.
Guy
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I can find you articles in the last week from both blue and green media talking about needing to accept living with the virus when get to 70% double vaccination rates
I was referring more to the “this government sucks!” vibe.
Guy
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Yes, I agree and nothing indicates that isn’t entirely reachable now that the gov’t has pulled their heads out of their collective arses in procuring vaccines. However, like I said, opening up and ending quarantine will require the five countries who disproportionately make up the vast majority of foreign residents in Taiwan to get things together.
Beyond that, the area that’s hard to quantify is the fear of the unknown and distrust that has spread over the past year. For instance, I saw people posting online about how the gov’t wasn’t taking this seriously because they skipped the presser this PM due to the typhoon. What events will let them scale it back to perhaps an update each week or every ten days?
It’s not hard to find people calling for all flights in and out of Taiwan to be ceased and/or pilots to be kept in quarantine in perpetuity. I could see some kind of tiered system in Taiwan where fully vaccinated citizens traveling from a handful of select countries are able to skip quarantine whereas people coming from the Philippines or Indonesia have a 21-day lockup upon arrival.
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I’d say across the board there is dissatisfaction with the vaccine stuff. Speaking to taxi driver yesterday who was saying the same. Taiwanese 很怕死 and everyone cannot wait to be vaccinated
Taiwan has a problem of low salaries - and like every second young person with good education would be leaving Taiwan if they could speak decent English…
If life quality degrades - many will leave even though their English sucks. They will leave temporarily - but the most qualified will likely not come back.
So yes Taiwan has a problem with unemployment - even a little will cause salaries to drop even further in relation to other countries.
The main reason that Taiwan got through with low salaries for qualified jobs is that life quality is rather high - especially in comparison to China. But in China after the 8 weeks of strickt lockdown life got on much quicker (hence why we don’t trust their covid numbers anymore). Taiwan is now stuck in shit since 15 May or so. Especially wearing masks outdoors which is against any science (except at very crowded places).
As I said - it does not make sense for Taiwan to open up now to the rest of the world - it would contradict their policies and people would lose faith in the government. They do need to announce it now however. First to keep motivation up inside Taiwan, second to bolser vaccination rates (it will only be a couple of weeks till vaccine surplus), and third to send a statement that all what they did so far was because it made sense, not because it was driven by fear. I mean it was crazy this year before May how people wore masks outdoors - but as soon as they sat down on a table masks off and party. Taiwan needs to act fast - to stay relevant.
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Your analysis is just wrong. So many companies have moved back to Taiwan. If anything they are desperate for quality workers and wages are on the rise.
Honestly everything will be fine
Yeah Taiwan needs the SEA workers and needs them fast. There just isn’t enough blue collar workers here and business Is blockbusters here.
Remember earlier this year, no companies bid for the two MRT extensions because they can’t get workers. I’m guessing whatever happens, they are going to have to make allowances for South East Asians soon
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wise words
You should talk to real people not just read the business news. Ask the restaurant owner how much the restrictions have hurt. Ask the girl who made your coffee what she thinks she’ll do after she’s done with school and how much she expects her starting salary to be. Ask the clerk at the department store if they have a college degree and what they originally wanted to do after they graduated. Ask your Foodpanda delivery person what they think of TSMC’s stock price or the GDP growth #.
There’s a whole generation of people here in their 20-40s who basically have little to look forward to economically except property inheritance. It’s crazy for me to think about how different my life is compared to my cousins just because I was born and educated in the US and they were in Taiwan. They’re smart and hard working and did what they were told to do schooling wise and they still earn peanuts, get worked into the ground by their bosses and have 95% less opportunity here.
Meanwhile you’re talking about importing SEA laborers as if that’s going to do anything to benefit the average Taiwanese person who doesn’t own a manufacturing company or work as an engineer at TSMC.
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