The election is far from over.
Chen is bouncing back, so everything is still up for grabs.
I’m not very clear yet on Taiwan’s governmental structure, but I believe you need to have a majority vote in the legislature to pass bills, change the constitution ect ect correct? And that the KMT has had a slight majority during President Chen’s administration?
So my question is, even if Chen wins the election again, will he get the majority in the legislature or will it be another four more years of political rhetoric and hot air from a lame duck President? What are the chances this time around for the DPP to get the majority of the seats in the legislature? Good, bad, even?!? Have party members always voted the party line when it comes time to hard pass legislation?
So I figure nothing significant can happen for another four years if neither the pan-blue alliance nor pan-green party win both the presidency and the legislature correct?
I don’t believe in any of the current “polls” since I don’t feel it is an accurate representation of how the public(who actually turn out) will vote on election day… how can one trust any of the media in Taiwan to hold an accurate poll?
What was the voter turn-out for the last election? Just curious…
Has Chen actually made such a big impression on the voters of Taiwan(those who will vote) so that he can jump from gathering ~34-35% of the popular vote from the last election to get the ~45-50% he needs to win the next election? I don’t think so.
Chance that the KMT and PFP CAN’T keep it together for six more months? Highly unlikely given what happened last time around, they are not that stupid to get burned twice… they’ll probably slug it out after the election though, but not before.
TSU? They can scream and holler all they want but they will not make a dent in the next election… all they can do is take votes away from the DPP.
So logically thinking this thru, I don’t think Ah-Bian has made a big enough breakthrough ( on the actual voters who will turn out ) that he will get the 45-50% needed to win the presidency. So the only question is, will the DPP win enough seats to control the legislature? Or will it be a KMT-PFP sweep of both the presidency and legislature this time around? Then that would be interesting on what they intend to do afterwards… heck it’ll be interesting if the KMT-PFP will even work together!
What if Lien-Soong win the presidency but don’t have control in the legislature, that’ll make for another four years of retarded Taiwanese politics.
All I can say is: we’ve got front row seats to one of the most interesting political spectacles that’s going to happen and thank God that I have a foreign passport in case everything goes to hell!
There is no chance on earth of any open rift appearing between those two. They both understand with crystal clarity that united they stand, divided they fall – however much they may secretly loathe each other or disagree with each other’s views and pronouncements, they will maintain the facade of unity in order to get their hands on the reins of power. That is the biggest certainty of this election.
The most astonishing development of late has been Chen’s apparent endorsement of Lu as his running mate again. If he is serious and not playing some kind of machiavellian ploy, then one can only shake one’s head in bewildered disbelief. If it’s really to be a Chen-Lu ticket, it will have no chance at all of attracting a majority of votes. No wonder so many DPP members are up in arms and openly calling for a clear statement that this will not happen and that Lu will definitely not be on stage for the big event.
You never know until the votes have been counted, but I concede that the DPP supporters I know are sick and tired of Chen.
I’d say that Lian/Song will win- and status quo will be preserved. No major reforms, no breakthru in cross-strait relations. (Lian’s journey of peace will falter, when Beijing refuses to give him a big reception - those things matter to him.)