A lot of the discussion we
What about the Three Small Links? They’d be giving that up for starters.
Great post Jive Turkey,
I’ve often thought the same thing. And no doubt there are more than a few generals who would love to get the green light for this.
I guess the Chinese government is afraid of the international backlash: the economy is still rather dependent on foreign investment and the Beijing Olympics would also be put at risk.
Then there’s the risk of failure. Taking heavily fortified islands has never been easy. If Taiwan wanted to put up a good fight (yeah, I know, pretty unlikely) I think they would be able to hold the islands for some time.
It’s not just the international backlash. Taiwan would have no choice but to withdraw from any talks on cross-straits transport links and they are desperate to have those. Investment from Taiwan would stop and CCP needs that more than anything else right now if they want to hold onto power. The increased military tension in the strait would stop all the movement of illegal immigrants which makes it harder for them to place their spies and third-columnists here which they rely on for intel gathering and destabilization. They would also invite criticism from their own population for stopping at that small objective. Pressure to come and beat on Taiwan would increase, and they are not ready to do that, despite all the huffing and puffing and threatening to blow our house down.
Nope, I doubt they are going to risk all that just for some pissant little islands and a few fishing boats. Are Jinmen and Mazu even self-sufficient without the trade in hookers?
[quote=“almas john”]
I guess the Chinese government is afraid of the international backlash: the economy is still rather dependent on foreign investment and the Beijing Olympics would also be put at risk. [/quote]
That is surely a concern. Taking Jinmen and Mazu would send the Taiex and the NT$ into a nose dive. Loss of confidence in Taiwan’s economy can’t be a good thing for the mainland’s economy. If foreigners think that the taking of Jinmen and Mazu are a prelude to a wider conflict (which is exactly what the mainlanders would want the Taiwanese to believe), they will not only avoid investing in Taiwan until things clear up, but would also avoid the mainland.
[quote=“almas john”]Then there’s the risk of failure. Taking heavily fortified islands has never been easy. If Taiwan wanted to put up a good fight (yeah, I know, pretty unlikely) I think they would be able to hold the islands for some time.[/quote]I think that prevented them from trying it thirty years ago, but I don’t think the garrison would be willing or able to hold out if the mainlanders hit them hard enough now. They would certainly have air superiority and would be able to prevent ROCN ships from geting to the islands. They’d be cut off. The PRC couldn’t do that in the fifties, but I don’t see why they coudn’t do it now. Poagao, did you do a spell at any of the off shore islands when you did your service? If so, what was it like?
That seems completely insignificant to me. I doubt it would even factor into their decision making. The three links would probably be providing more benefit to the ROC than to the PRC, anyway.
Who are they? The Taiwanese or the mainlanders?
Ah, yes, more of the same old “they need us more than we need them, so there’s no way they’ll ever attack” kind of reasoning. I’m not very assured by that line of thinking. I hope the folks in the ROC government who will have to decide how to respond to this kind of development aren’t so arrogant.
Let me ask you something: why would the PRC ever send spies as illegals when they can send as many as they want legally via HK, Macau or any other country and the immigration counter at CKS? Why would they send someone posing as a prostitute when they can send a legally documented, inconspicuous, and well trained spy with the cover of a HK or Macau businessman?
I doubt it. They can package it any way they like.
What would they gain from doing this? As far as I can see, this would have all the disadvantages of military action (threat of sanctions, loss of foreign investment, reaction by the US) with none of the advantages of taking the whole of Taiwan (China is whole once more, woohoo!).
Can you (or China) confidently predict the reaction of the rest of the world if they did invade Jinmen/Matzu? In particular, isn’t it possible that the US would rip up their ‘One China’ agreement, and support formal independence for Taiwan? After all, the US couldn’t really keep on with ‘strategic ambiguity’ at that point. Even assuming a weaker response from the US, there would still be some response (increased military presence in the area, maybe US bases on Taiwan) which would make an attack on Taiwan harder.
[quote=“Jive Turkey”]
Who are they? The Taiwanese or the mainlanders? [/quote]China.
[quote=“JT”]
Ah, yes, more of the same old “they need us more than we need them, so there’s no way they’ll ever attack” kind of reasoning. I’m not very assured by that line of thinking. I hope the folks in the ROC government who will have to decide how to respond to this kind of development aren’t so arrogant.[/quote]It would be arrogant if it were thought to be a one-way dependancy, but it’s not. I didn’t say there’s no way they’ll ever attack, so don’t put words in my mouth, ok? What I do think is that for the sake of a couple of lousy rocks, they’d be giving up a lot of vital investment and trade. Would that also hurt Taiwan? Hell yes. Is it a smart gamble for China? Fuck no.
[quote=“JT”]
Let me ask you something: why would the PRC ever send spies as illegals when they can send as many as they want legally via HK, Macau or any other country and the immigration counter at CKS? Why would they send someone posing as a prostitute when they can send a legally documented, inconspicuous, and well trained spy with the cover of a HK or Macau businessman?[/quote]Don’t be silly. They don’t send hookers here to spy, and they don’t send spies under the cover of prostitution. They allow hookers to come here to stir social unrest. Destabilization. And they certainly do send spies and saboteurs here on fishing boats, as well as via regular means.
[quote=“JT”]I doubt it. They can package it any way they like.[/quote]Even the CCP is becoming more aware of and responsive to the opinions of the masses.
Anyway, if you think the PLA invading the outlying islands is such a great idea, why don’t you write the CCP and ask what they’re waiting for?
Does Taiwan actually need these islands for a first line of defence, or for early warning or intel gathering? What are they good for beyond the ferry links and a handy place to exchange illegal immigrants and prisoners?
Why would you ever want to take Mazhu or Jinmen?
Makes no strategic sense - all you are doing is putting your soldiers in one place to get shelled or bombed. The harbors are small and all those bunkers were great before bunker busters. Now they are convenient mass graves.
There is no need for a forward base like Mazhu or Jinmen because they are too far away. Penghu would be much better to project power over Taiwan.
Incendentally the US invasion plans for Taiwan were to invade from Kenting and KHH.
The discussion reminds me of the movie “Spy Games” with Brad Pitt and Robert Redford. Anyone noticed the Penghu map in the background of the war room at the CIA headquarter?
What I am thinking is that if the DDP administration change the country’s official title from the ROC to ROT first, and if the PRC does not want the whole shebang of invading Taiwan’s main island to avoid the risk of an all out confrontation against the US, Taiwan, Japan military, then I guess they will definitely go after Jin/Ma to serve as a moral victory, then trys to enter into a peace negotiation by offering to give Jin/Ma back to us if we can agree to the condition that we all Chinese, or all symbolically belong to a greater China, etc, or other types of bullshits.
If we don’t declare independence, is there even any benefits for them to attack Jin/Ma? Doing so will be so completely against the One China policy too you know, since Jin/Ma serve as a symbol that the ROC still holds a piece of mainland (Fujian Province). It wouldn’t make sense for them to attack these two island to serve as a warning against independence towards us either, since as soon as they attack we’ll most likely immediately declare it, they will be risking sanctions over nothing then the best part is that it wouldn’t even be our fault. By going after Jin/Ma first also gives the US/Japan more time to prepare for a military intervention to protect the main island.
What you think?
I remember seeing that movie several months ago on HBO and groaning at all the geographic mistakes. Besides saying that Penghu was a part of the PRC, and showing a map which looked nothing like mainland China, the jail that they broke Brad Pitt out of was in Suzhou. Not only did Robert Redford keep on calling it Suchow, Suzhou is far enough inland that there’s no way that American helicopters can slip in and out of there.
It certainly wasn’t in 1958.
In short, there is no strategic advantage to even trying. It is simply provocation with absolutely nothing to gain, materially or in the eyes of the international community, and much to lose – like support from the U.S. for starters. Talk about a self-inflicted wound guaranteed to win sympathy votes for Taiwan…
it’s a microcosm of their situation vis-a-vis taiwan proper. strategically they gain little. the risk is small but the price for failure could be huge, and success could carry a price as well in foreign affairs. plans surely exist just in case political conditions at home or in taiwan made the largely symbolic benefit of success seem worth the risk.
I think the point of putting the US (and Japan and ROC) militaries on high alert is the crux here. They would no longer have any way to mount any kind of surprise offensive on Taiwan proper. Although, I see it as a possibility of Chen/Lu push a little too much, and the PRC wants a way to show that it means business without having to go all out (they still won’t have the technical advantage until 2006 at least), but who knows what could be said/done between now and then … the new Constitution being one example, and which the PRC is very, very unhappy about.
I think it would not be such a bad thing if China invaded and tookover Jinmen and Matzu. It would show the world the true colors of Communist China and allow the USA an excuse to smack the shit out of PLA. 
Maybe there could even be a regime change and China could be rid of the CCP once and for all. :bravo:
On a more happy note, lets hope Chen/Lu and the rest of Taiwan can get a new constitution soon, from what I have read, the old one is a seriously flawed and the crux of many of Taiwan’s problems. Wasn’t it written back when the KMT still ruled China?
By the way, LittleBuddhaTW, you seem like a real KMT fear monger. They were predicting war 4.5 years right before Chen was elected to his first term. Maybe you haven’t been here long enough.
Don’t you ever read any of my posts thoroughly, or does your mind only focus on what it wants to believe? I have stated very clearly that I support neither the pro-Green or pro-Blue camps. Why don’t you quit trying to paint me with the brush that I’m a “KMT fear-monger” or “pro-China.” :loco: Why else would I have worked with the Taiwanese military police program if I didn’t support Taiwan? Unless of course in your deranged little world you think I’m a PRC spy or something (which wouldn’t do much good anyway since my security clearance was quite low). It’s really pointless trying to carry on a rational debate with you when you can’t even respect someone enough to read their posts thoroughly, rather you read what you want to read and just spit out the same old recycled stuff over and over and over …
[quote=“Hobart”]
I think it would not be such a bad thing if China invaded and tookover Jinmen and Matzu. It would show the world the true colors of Communist China and allow the USA an excuse to smack the shit out of PLA. 
Maybe there could even be a regime change and China could be rid of the CCP once and for all. :bravo: [/quote]
Hate to break it to you. But a change of government in China is likely to propel the Taiwan issue to the forefront. If China becomes democratic, it is more likely than the communists to attack Taiwan. Not to mention less likely that the U.S. would interfere. You should be hoping and praying that the CCP does not lose power if you support separatism.
Cmdjing has a point Hu jintao was a force in keeping Jiang Ze Ming from blowing up Taiwan in the past 2 years.
A majority of people in PRC feel Taiwan is part of China and do support going to war if neccessary.
OK, LB, I will not claim that you are a KMT fear-monger. Never again, that’s a promise. 
That said, I will call you a fear monger in general every time you give me the opportunity. :raspberry:
Also, when I arrived here the first time in 1995, a book called “T-Day” had been published here. It set of a scare, as it pictured how the back then hopelessly outdated PLA would overwhelm the Taiwanese defenses and predicted that the war would happen soon.
Also, at a reception, a Danish foreign ministry senior employee told me that Taiwan would reunify with China before 2000. That was the consensus back then :loco:
Also, it always seems that the invasion will happen in 4 years… When I came in 2000 and started working, a worthless twat of a colleague, whose wife happend to be the chief representative of a major Asian-pacific country told me that the Taiwanese defence ministry believed that the invasion would come no later than 2004, whoever his sources were.
Therefore, when Hobart is a bit more sceptical about your fear-mongering, then part of the reason is that he’s been here a great deal longer than you, and have had to listen to the “China invades soon” bullshit for some time. As far as I can see, you got here in may 2001, which is a respectable spell, but somewhat less than many of us “rebid pro green posters”.