Current News and Info on Post-quake Nuclear Problems

[yuli]

And some more detailed analysis (“looking back”) from half a week ago:
(Summaries like his are perhaps a bit easeier to understand than then the opften porrly worded announcements from TEPCO.)

“Japan Denies Withholding Evidence of Massive Radiation Release” (April 13, US time)
globalsecuritynewswire.org/g … 3_4365.php

“Japan Plant Emits More Radiation After Cooling Lapse” (April 14, US time)
globalsecuritynewswire.org/g … 4_5466.php
One point of interest that we have not mentioned here before is brought up in this article: is “level 7” really an appropriate assessment? A Russian specialist suggests that that 7 is too high but may have been chosen for insurance reasons rather than technical reasons. This point highlights what i have been trying to get across in various related threads: there are many psychological and political issues connected to the issue of “nuclear energy” and those get mixed in with issues of physics and engineering from the inception and planning of a facility, through to the execution of the plans and the operation management and continue to spill into crisis management and post-crisis wrap-ups. And thus it is clear to anybody but techno-nerds that “nuclear energy” is inherently unsafe (unviable), since even if (hypothetically) all physical risks could be brought under control, the many associated risks that arise from human nature cannot be controlled.

(Note:
Links on news websites may become unusable or closed to the general public after a while.
To ensure future access to information that is posted here, please download the linked articles to your own computer)
[/quote]

[Ryan_the_third]

Noticed on the taiwan radiation monitoring site today that the value of one mountain station north of taipei went from 64 to 107 or something and now back to 60s during the afternoon rain showers… thats a lot more deviation than there is normally from what i can see.

[Huang_Guang_Chen]

Delete - Double post.

HG

[Huang_Guang_Chen]

@yuli

Are you suggesting there is some mastermind behind the reaction of the service station staff? Do you see anybody there profiting from the fear?

Yeah, in a way. It’s called money. And media purveyors make more of it from advertising when more people watch their programmes or read their websites. There are instant pundits aplenty.

I’m not saying it’s not tragic for Japan, or that someone will not suffer as a result in some way, but relative to what is already known, the nuke is a drop in the ocean, no pun intended.

HG

[Huang_Guang_Chen]

@yuli

That is the same kind of panicky thinking like that which led thousands of tourists from Taiwan to cancel their trips to the islands of Okinawa: many people have no realistic understanding of radiation and fallout and react simply from a gut level of fear. And in Japan, completely opposite to what happened in other countries, this fear has not been stoked by sensationalist reporting but by secrecy and beating around the bush on part of industry and government. And now there are, of course quite predictably, politicians who are trying to make hay out of the prime minister having been the bringer of uncomfortable news. You can count on it that as long as we maintain the kind of secretive political-economic system we have now we won’t be seeing a better educated public.

Apologies, Yuli, I see now I only addressed part of your reply. While the media reports generated within Japan and government statements have, to use a neutral term, been perhaps conservative, the juxtaposition with the sensationalism of the reporting outside of Japan has no doubt increased people’s fears at home, and generated the sort of scare storm we’ve seen at times right here.

Indeed I find it sort of odd that you’d be wondering why tourists are cancelling trips to Okinawa on one hand, while on the other telling us that nuclear isn’t viable, inherently so because humans are fallible and that just perhaps the Japanese government at the very best interpretation aren’t telling us the full story about the nuke in Japan. The term voting with your feet comes to mind. I mean, aren’t you in Taiwan not Okinawa right now?

One can certainly imagine interpreting, reading or seeing rapidly translated bits of foreign media sources online in Japan has no doubt left people wondering what the hell the government is hiding from people. A terrifying situation, I’m sure. Indeed, one I’m very much aware of, as colleagues fled Tokyo in the first weeks after the quake because of this and rocked up in my HK office. I’ll not go into full details about my opinion of those people here, but I think in many instances it was a good excuse to come home for awhile on the company’s conservative dollar.

@yuli

And thus it is clear to anybody but techno-nerds that “nuclear energy” is inherently unsafe (unviable), since even if (hypothetically) all physical risks could be brought under control, the many associated risks that arise from human nature cannot be controlled.

Compared to what, exactly? I actually don’t believe the numbers below are right on Chernobyl, but the scale probably is relative to fossil fuels (ie, I trust more the OECD report).

Even if you count all the deaths plausibly related to Chernobyl 9,000 to 33,000 over a 70-year period that number is dwarfed by the death rate from burning fossil fuels. The OECD’s 2008 Environmental Outlook calculates that fine-particle outdoor air pollution caused nearly 1 million premature deaths in the year 2000, and 30 percent of this was energy-related. You’d need 500 Chernobyls to match that level of annual carnage. But outside Chernobyl, we’ve had zero fatal nuclear power accidents.

So what exactly are the alternatives? We need answers here, mate, or you are going to have to throw another rat on your treadmill to keep posting, for one. Not to mention what’s required to keep the world ticking over with safe water, sewage treatment, food, or rather, just the very basics on Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.

[quote]There are five different levels in Maslow’s hierarchy of needs:

1. Physiological Needs
   These include the most basic needs that are vital to survival, such as the need for water, air, food and sleep. Maslow believed that these needs are the most basic and instinctive needs in the hierarchy because all needs become secondary until these physiological needs are met.[/quote]
   HG

[Mediterranean]

Is anyone worried about the cesium-134/137 in the air. That has a half-life of 30.2 years. I’ve noticed that everyone is kind of non-chalant about this whole occurence. Does everyone not understand the long term effects of these particles or am I just over reacting? I’m still not sure whether to stay or go since it still not under control and they say it will be months before they can really get it under control.

[Huang_Guang_Chen]

I smoke Mild Seven Originals, made, ironically enough, by Japan Tobacco International. I’m far more concerned about those killing me, and millions of others, than the very low levels of Cesium-134 and Cesium-137 supposedly being dispersed in the air and sea.

Apologies, Mediterranean, where are you thinking of leaving and where were you hoping to escape to?

I bet the oft quoted Arnie Gunderson is seeing money inflows more akin to a Jap tobacco company than a talking head with all his blustering on this issue. Keep 'em scared, and he keeps getting paid. Call it all a fart in the breeze, and the cheques magically stop. Vested interest, anybody?

HG

[Ryan_the_third]

[quote=“Huang Guang Chen”]I smoke Mild Seven Originals, made, ironically enough, by Japan Tobacco International. I’m far more concerned about those killing me, and millions of others, than the very low levels of Cesium-134 and Cesium-137 supposedly being dispersed in the air and sea.

Apologies, Mediterranean, where are you thinking of leaving and where were you hoping to escape to?

I bet the oft quoted Arnie Gunderson is seeing money inflows more akin to a Jap tobacco company than a talking head with all his blustering on this issue. Keep 'em scared, and he keeps getting paid. Call it all a fart in the breeze, and the cheques magically stop. Vested interest, anybody?

HG[/quote]

yeah but the choice if one does not want to be killed by the crap you smoke is just not to smoke it… like the exact same choice regarding radiation from japan if you are worried is to get farther away if one wants to. we get that you are not worried and that all is just a big hoax and everyone else is just really stupid. maybe you could put it in your signature too… that would save you the time of having to point it out in every single post you make.

[Huang_Guang_Chen]

No time. We’ll all be dead before I finish amending my signature. Sorry to have misled you. I was obviously wrong. Expect your hair to start falling out in clumps in . . . five, four, three . .

HG

[Icon]

This morning there was a brief piece on TV news about some people complaining that the radiation data of certain agency was not being published daily as before, but weekly. The agency’s reply? That the readings were too low at an atmospheric level, and they were concentrating on soil and water readings, hence they were publishing the results once a week, as requested by international agencies they were collaborating with.

You can choose to believe this or not. And by the way, from the beginning, they did say the critical period would extends weeks, and putting things back together would take months. So, yes, we will have to monitor the situation for quite a bit of time, we are not out of the woods yet, and many things can still happen, especially with strong aftershocks and of course, the always looming possibility of anotehr tsunami. Until then, we have to take it one step at a time, play it by ear.

[Mediterranean]

Thanks Icon, Huang Guang Chen and Ryan the Third. Yeah, I guess I was thinking of leaving and escaping these nuclear particles in the air.The thing with these nuclear particles is that you don’t get hair falling out and such. It is your accumulation over the years of the nuclear element or particle. In other words, cancer in ten years or twenty.

It is easy to shrug your shoulders at this stuff, but I’ve never sen anybody on their death bed say, “Well, I saw this shit comin’, heh heh. Not a problem!” That’s why I’m asking to make sure that there is no information that I am missing that would make me understand this all differently. I don’t want to make a rash and unmerited decision. Thank you al for your help. Please keep the comments coming. THANK YOU ICON! Very clear and intelligent response.

[Chuanzao_El_Ale_Dest]

@Mediterranean

Is anyone worried about the cesium-134/137 in the air. That has a half-life of 30.2 years. I’ve noticed that everyone is kind of non-chalant about this whole occurence. Does everyone not understand the long term effects of these particles or am I just over reacting? I’m still not sure whether to stay or go since it still not under control and they say it will be months before they can really get it under control.

I’m worried.
I think the Japanese care more about public relations than they do about actually informing the public.

[yuli]

@Huang Guang Chen

Indeed I find it sort of odd that you’d be wondering why tourists are cancelling trips to Okinawa on one hand, while on the other telling us that nuclear isn’t viable, inherently so because humans are fallible and that just perhaps the Japanese government at the very best interpretation aren’t telling us the full story about the nuke in Japan.

That’s funny, but you are in Hong Kong (i guess) so you - unlike tourist from Taiwan - would not know that Ishigaki is 250km east of Taiwan; as far from Fukushima as Taipei!

The term voting with your feet comes to mind. I mean, aren’t you in Taiwan not Okinawa right now?

I’ve been in Taiwan since February because i have committments here - look at a map, consider my arrival date here - and then feel free to scrap that idea.

Compared to what, exactly?

Indeed. I didn’t suggest any comparison.

[yuli]

@Chuanzao El Ale Destroyer

I think the Japanese care more about public relations than they do about actually informing the public.

There is more to it: our society is inherently set up to discourage creative thinking and taking responsibility as an individual. Thus everybody is waiting for someone else to make a decision while trying to cover their behinds, and people tend to suffer mental paralysis when faced with a situation that is new for them. Add to that the cosy relationship between industry and government (follow the money, and if you have never heard of “amakudari” check Wikipedia ). So there many reasons for the guys at TEPCO and the government to try and cover things up - which has worked many times in the past (although not always) and is failing spectacularly now since something has really blown up.

[Huang_Guang_Chen]

Again I find myself nodding in approval with you, Yuli. And I’m deeply interested in this place you mention, Ishigaki. BTW. I consider you a very good ambassador.

What I would add for Chuanzao El Ale Destroyer’s benefit, and others, is that the government of Japan and Tepco can be as cosy as they like about this, but every radiation and all other monitors worth their collective weight in iodised salt are watching this awfully closely, and unless you happen to think there’s a vast global conspiracy afoot, you are most certainly going to know about it if things really should become life threatening.

And for Mediterranean and Ryan the third, excuse my making light of this awful situation, but I am of the belief, based on research, that the likelihood of this causing any real threat outside of the exclusion zone is very minimal. Not completely out of the question mind, as in nor is the possibility of being struck by flying space debris or an asteroid.

Cheers.
HG

[Charlie_Jack]

Sorry, yuli and Chuanzao, but it just needed a little tweaking:

@"[color=#FF0000

Anybody from anywhere[/color]“][quote=”[color=#FF0000]Anybody from anywhere[/color]"]I think the Japanese, [color=#FF0000]Americans, French, Russians, British, Chinese, Taiwanese, Germans, Tongans, Canadians, Swedes, Albanians, etc., [/color] care more about public relations than they do about actually informing the public.

There is more to it: [strike]our[/strike] [color=#FF0000]human[/color] society is inherently set up to discourage creative thinking and taking responsibility as an individual. Thus everybody is waiting for someone else to make a decision while trying to cover their behinds, and people tend to suffer mental paralysis when faced with a situation that is new for them. Add to that the cosy relationship between industry and government (follow the money, and if you have never heard of “amakudari,” [color=#FF0000]“revolving door,” or “pantouflage,”[/color] check Wikipedia ). So there many reasons for the guys at [strike]TEPCO[/strike] [color=#FF0000]a power company[/color] and the government to try and cover things up - which has worked many times in the past (although not always) [strike]and is[/strike] but will fail[strike]ing[/strike] spectacularly [strike]now since something has really blown up[/strike][color=#FF0000] if anything ever goes seriously wrong, as it is bound to do eventually. But they just roll the dice and hope that it doesn’t happen on their watch[/color].[/quote]

Not saying Japanese society isn’t any different from other societies, but it ain’t that different.

I never thought I’d live to see the day that I would quote Mick Jagger and Keith Richards for their profound wisdom , but they said it best when they wrote of “the wavering millions,” “[w]ho need leaders but get gamblers instead.”

youtube.com/watch?v=P2bxix3vFYM

[yuli]

@Huang Guang Chen

the government of Japan and Tepco can be as cosy as they like about this, but every radiation and all other monitors worth their collective weight in iodised salt are watching this awfully closely

Right, they ended up with their backs against the wall and had to confess - but they sure tried to wiggle and sneak out of it: remember that report, early on, about “a noise and smoke near reactor building 1”? Yeah, right…

@Charlie Jack

Sorry, yuli and Chuanzao, but it just needed a little tweaking

Wow… well, it’s hard to argue with that…

[yuli]

“High Radiation Detected inside Fukushima Reactor Buildings”
jen.jiji.com/jc/eng?g=eco&k=2011041800428

a robot survey showed high levels of radiation inside buildings that house the No. 1 and No. 3 reactors […] The radiation levels are within expectations [b]ut the levels are too high for repair workers. […]A similar survey is conducted for the No. 2 reactor building Monday.

Yeah, no surprise here. As has been said elsewhere: this will take time…

A different report:
“Workers cannot approach reactor buildings”
www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/18_03.html
Interesting to compare the radiation readings in these two reports - and also interesting to read this reaction to the reported values:
physicsforums.com/showpost.p … count=4059

You can not trust any of the readings/reports. Because it’s TEPCO and the press most of the time do not know what they are writing about.

The current hypothesis (in the forensic analysis thread on the “Physicsforums”) about what happened with building 4 (which was damaged at about 6am one day without anybody seeing/hearing an explosion):
physicsforums.com/showpost.p … count=4028

(Note:
Links on news websites may become unusable or closed to the general public after a while.
To ensure future access to information that is posted here, please download the linked articles to your own computer)

[yuli]

Fortunately nothing “out of the ordinary” appears to have happened at the damaged nuclear power plant lately…

“TEPCO starts moving highly radioactive water to storage facility”
english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/04/86501.html

[quote]The operator of the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant on Tuesday started a nearly one-month mission to move highly radioactive water from the No. 2 reactor turbine building to another facility at the site as part of efforts to enable engineers to engage in work to restore key cooling functions of the troubled reactors.
Tokyo Electric Power Co. plans to transfer about 10,000 tons of the deadly water found in and around the building, which has an extremely high level of radiation exceeding 1,000 millisieverts per hour, and create by June a system that would clean up the stored water to some extent.
The move marks some progress toward settling the country’s worst nuclear crisis triggered after the March 11 killer earthquake and tsunami, but it is uncertain whether Tokyo Electric can succeed in creating a system that can efficiently process massive amounts of polluted water and eventually use some of it to cool reactors.[/quote]

Interesting discussions (interesting to those who can make sense of them) going on in the forensic analysis thread:
physicsforums.com/showthread … 0&page=255

Data plots about the states of reactors #1-3
ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/EXPORT … /Main.html
(Explanation about apparently wrong data here:
physicsforums.com/showpost.p … count=4100
physicsforums.com/showpost.p … count=4186)

Other news:

“Govt to Issue New Evacuation Order as Soon as Possible: Edano”
jen.jiji.com/jc/eng?g=eco&k=2011041900860

[quote] Tokyo, April 19 (Jiji Press)–The government will implement a new nuclear evacuation zone as soon as possible, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said Tuesday.
Residents in the new evacuation zone, which covers Iitate and parts of Minamisoma and Kawamata, all in Fukushima Prefecture, will be urged to leave within a month.[/quote]

Update on the number of casualties of the March 11 earthquake/tsunami (and aftershocks):
www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/19_28.html

[quote]The National Police Agency says that as of 6 PM on Tuesday, the total number of dead and missing was 27,661. The agency says 14,001 people are confirmed dead, including those killed in aftershocks on April 7th and 11th. About 84 percent of the dead have been identified.
The agency says 13,660 people are listed as missing, but that the number does not include those from Sendai City in Miyagi Prefecture, as authorities are currently checking for overlapping reports.[/quote]

(Note:
Links on news websites may become unusable or closed to the general public after a while.
To ensure future access to information that is posted here, please download the linked articles to your own computer)
[/quote]

[horo36]

[quote=“Icon”]This morning there was a brief piece on TV news about some people complaining that the radiation data of certain agency was not being published daily as before, but weekly. The agency’s reply? That the readings were too low at an atmospheric level, and they were concentrating on soil and water readings, hence they were publishing the results once a week, as requested by international agencies they were collaborating with.

You can choose to believe this or not. And by the way, from the beginning, they did say the critical period would extends weeks, and putting things back together would take months. So, yes, we will have to monitor the situation for quite a bit of time, we are not out of the woods yet, and many things can still happen, especially with strong aftershocks and of course, the always looming possibility of anotehr tsunami. Until then, we have to take it one step at a time, play it by ear.[/quote]

What do you suggest people should do? Sit and wait? And then when it will be finally said that it had been in fact not safe for a long time, what people should do? Suddenly get on planes? Why does everyone/most of people need to hear from the news that it is dangerous, to believe it. Why can’t you see for yourself that something is not ok? I am not saying you must suddenly become a nuclear specialist. But it should be easy enough to see how media acts or how the public figures act to see that everyone is covering up. It means it is dangerous, it is not safe in Taiwan.
Well, I guess it is a part of human nature that we love to live in our dream bubble. It is difficult to face unwanted news.