So you’re flight to Okinawa will be fine, though there’s still a reasonable chance of the storm rendezvousing with you in Okinawa on Sunday
Depending on what size it builds to, that’s not necessarily anything to be worried about. Good news is that it will be moving pretty quickly so the peak impact time will be shorter
Hualien is also looking ok at this stage as it’s meant to stay offshore and slide up to the north
In fact, it’s shaping up as a surfer’s dream scenario if it sticks to the CWB forecast and picks up a bit of strength - that’s exactly the track they are waiting for - far enough offshore that they won’t close the beaches but sending in large clean sets as it rolls past
Obviously, still need to watch it in case of any major changes in the steering influences
The situation is so complex that according to GFS a typhoon will hit Taiwan on Saturday/Sunday, while for ECMWF we will not have anything around us at all.
Invest 99W, the one that is forming up, is what GFS expects to pay us a visit over the weekend, while for ECMWF Noru will end up swallowing everything and hang around near Japan for a while.
It’s still very much a long shot that either of the two systems will impact Taiwan this weekend - there would have to be a dramatic change in the official CWB forecast for that to happen
There are a lot of moving parts in terms of steering influences so the predicted tracks will likely alter and both systems need to be watched, but I’ll be surprised if we get hit by a typhoon this weekend
The one to the north west, Noru, is an outside chance of ‘doing a Nari’ - making landfall in Taiwan by coming down from the north - but hard to see it happening this weekend
The forecast is for light rain…doubt they completely cancel. There might be a minor riot.
My guess is nothing comes of it, but I was a little confused because none of these current systems seem to be any where close to affecting Taiwan, at least for the weekend. Was figuring there might be another low pressure system at the root of it or something, but seems no one knows why the steady/light rain predictions are in play.
