Will there be a drop in housing prices?

With prices advertised as 14 million for a for 30-40 ping, 3 bedroom in Sanxia … they’re just getting higher, crazy

Years back, banks were offering 0% down. I even heard stories of people able to borrow 110% of the property so you’d be able to remodel. By the time we got in around 2008, it was like 10% down, 25% for taofangs. Our second home in 2010 was 20% down. Now it’s 30-35%.

How in the name of all that is great and holy can anyone afford this? If you’re buying a 10m place (it’s hard to find much cheaper in Greatest Taipei), that’s a up to 3.5m down. It would take me years just to save up to that point.

Option 1: Rent for life
Option 2: Book it and find a job somewhere else

:ponder:

How in the name of all that is great and holy can anyone afford this? If you’re buying a 10m place (it’s hard to find much cheaper in Greatest Taipei), that’s a up to 3.5m down. It would take me years just to save up to that point.

Option 1: Rent for life
Option 2: Book it and find a job somewhere else

:ponder:[/quote]

Why is option 1 bad in a country where rent is extremely cheap compared to owning? Yes, there are benefits to owning but a 10M place is going to have monthly payments of 50+k (if there was only 20% down). I’m not sure exactly what a similar place would rent for but perhaps 25k/mo. Unless someone was sure that they would make out on appreciation then the smart money is on renting while you bank (not spend) that 25k/mo.

It’s not a terrible option, actually. But it would be nice to at some point in life have the piece of mind that I can redecorate however I’d like without having to get approval from someone. (Of course, that’s assuming I will one day be able to afford the cost of redecorating…)

If this was purely about “value for money”, I have to say,much as I like Taiwan, that I still want to buy this view in Europe

when I can, as opposed to the view in Taipei for the same price.

maybe I am being unfair, as some have other reasons to retire here, but on Value /scenic/ environmental consideration … I will be buying the Europe view :slight_smile:

How in the name of all that is great and holy can anyone afford this? If you’re buying a 10m place (it’s hard to find much cheaper in Greatest Taipei), that’s a up to 3.5m down. It would take me years just to save up to that point.

Option 1: Rent for life
Option 2: Book it and find a job somewhere else

:ponder:[/quote]

A lot of family transfers occur in Taiwan, 50,000 properties were transferred last year!

How in the name of all that is great and holy can anyone afford this? If you’re buying a 10m place (it’s hard to find much cheaper in Greatest Taipei), that’s a up to 3.5m down. It would take me years just to save up to that point.

Option 1: Rent for life
Option 2: Book it and find a job somewhere else

:ponder:[/quote]
You have at least two other options if you want to buy. One is 法拍屋 (“court auction homes” that have been foreclosed), and the other is the so-called 地上權 (above-ground rights), in which case you own just the apartment unit and not the land. Both are a lot cheaper than purchasing a home the conventional way.

My wife and I found a nice plot of land that we could buy to build a small house and enjoy a garden.
After spending a bit of time crunching numbers it turned out that in order to get 180wan of loan from a bank we’d need to give them back roughly 300wan over the course of 20 years. Not going to spend that amount of time working to make money for the bank.
We’ll probably go for long-term rent which is very affordable and allows us to save 30/35000ntd per month, then in 5/10 years from now we’ll gather our savings and see what we can afford to buy right away without even talking to a bank.

Well, they were and they weren’t.

When we were buying, back in 2005 we heard those stories.

Turned out most banks didn’t want to give us a mortgage at all because it was a mountainside community (‘hill land’). Or they were going to make us put down 35% or something.

We finally got one (with a little guanxi) that gave us 20%.

I’ve been told recently that Taiwanese homes do not typically have insurance even for natural disasters. Is this true? If it is, how can you possibly feel at ease putting so much money into something that could very well disappear in the next earthquake, typhoon, or land slide?

Not sure about the insurance costs for earthquake and typhoon coverage in Taiwan, but normally the premiums and deductibles are quite high for natural disasters. So the risk-to-reward math doesn’t work. When I was in the Bay Area I was considering earthquake insurance on my house until I got the “quotes” in. It made no financial sense unless you really believe that the next “big one” was going to essentially demolish your home and that is hopefully…an unlikely event (knock on wood) :slight_smile:

(Also there is always “talk” about an insurance company getting bankrupted by a huge natural disaster, so there can be “trust” issues with giving premiums for yrs and yrs to a company that “may” not pay out if a big earthquake or typhoon hits. In most western parts of the world, a reputable insurance company will actually get their own insurance in case of a really, really big natural disaster to help pay for potential claims.)

Taiwanese banks force homeowners to buy fire and earthquake insurance. It’s part of any standard mortgage contract.

Obviously this is primarily for the benefit of the bank, not the homeowner.

It would be depressing to make monthly payments for 20+ years on a pile of rubble, wouldn’t it? :ponder:

tw.news.yahoo.com/%E6%88%BF%E5% … nance.html

Interesting report (in Chinese). According to this real estate expert, the housing market has peaked (fourth quarter last year), and it’s all looking downhill from now on. Most people in the market nowadays can only afford homes that cost under 15 million, leaving the higher priced properties sitting. The only question remains is whether the bubble will burst or slowly deflate over time. :ponder:

[quote=“Incubus”]https://tw.news.yahoo.com/房價反轉下向-倪子仁-高點已過-061300128--finance.html

Interesting report (in Chinese). According to this real estate expert, the housing market has peaked (fourth quarter last year), and it’s all looking downhill from now on. Most people in the market nowadays can only afford homes that cost under 15 million, leaving the higher priced properties sitting. The only question remains is whether the bubble will burst or slowly deflate over time. :ponder:[/quote]

You do not need to speculate about that. It is bursting. They stampeded in, they will do the same when running for the exit.

Gently deflating bubbles are few and far in between, unless the “deflating” is the govt becoming buyer of last resort.

Yep. As a matter of fact, I asked at the bank when I was doing my loan whether they attached a policy in case I kicked the bucket before I finished paying. They told me it was a NEW service, barely implemented. :astonished: In the ol country, it is SOP. They won’t give you a loan without that. I can’t imagine who’d purchase a house without thinking what can happen if the main breadwinner is missing. I only have my pets to think of and I was already planning ahead on this regard.

Same with the fire and quake insurance. The ol country is also in the Circle of Fire, like Taiwan. Not having quake insurance here is nuts. In the ol country, all these insurances are SOP requisites for a loan. But so are inspections. Here, you get radioactive homes, sea sand buildings, oil can structures…

Does this mean you finally got a place? Congratulations! May I ask – what type of place and what area did you end up going for?

Does this mean you finally got a place? Congratulations! May I ask – what type of place and what area did you end up going for?[/quote]

Not yet, dear. I was just making serious inquiries on loan conditions and such.

As to the area, I’d resigned myself to be Bu Lai En’s neighbor. :laughing: It is the only affordable place in Xindian. In my area, the taofangs have gone down from 10 million to 7,2 and 6 million… for 11 pings. If my cats and dogs could live together maybe we could make it, but as we have WWIII going on, we need more space. So up the hills it is.

Otherwise, if I could afford it, I’d get one of those air rights only places on top of the MRT. There is a new one just next door, that would be nice.

[quote=“Incubus”]https://tw.news.yahoo.com/房價反轉下向-倪子仁-高點已過-061300128--finance.html

Interesting report (in Chinese). According to this real estate expert, the housing market has peaked (fourth quarter last year), and it’s all looking downhill from now on. Most people in the market nowadays can only afford homes that cost under 15 million, leaving the higher priced properties sitting. The only question remains is whether the bubble will burst or slowly deflate over time. :ponder:[/quote]

The author foresees a “possible” decline of 15% for the greater Taipei area, and quotes a real estate magazine as predicting declines of 10%, 15%, and 20% for Taipei City, New Taipei City, and Taoyuan/Hsinchu respectively. Neither gives a time frame for these declines, and the magazine presents the current condition as one of “horizontal consolidation.” They seem to be foreseeing gradual, and only limited, deflation.

I still predict that prices will continue to rise in the currently lower-priced areas of Taipei City, driven by the increasing demand for affordable places in the wake of all the expensive developments going up.

It all depends on how indebted people are. If a market where most people are in for borrowed money and where they expect to flit it for a profit after 2 years declines 10%, it will go much lower as people are blown out of their positions.