Will there be a drop in housing prices?

The Xindian hills are nice. I lived up the hill from the City Hall MRT station for a few years and had a nice outdoorsy lifestyle there. Just make sure any place you are considering is sitting on flat bedrock, as there are some sketchy developments on crumbling hillsides up there.

The Xindian hills are nice. I lived up the hill from the City Hall MRT station for a few years and had a nice outdoorsy lifestyle there. Just make sure any place you are considering is sitting on flat bedrock, as there are some sketchy developments on crumbling hillsides up there.[/quote]

Oh, Iā€™d love closer to the ground, like Bitan or Zhonghua Road. Rose Garden City and New Small Taipei City also options. But price wiseā€¦ Xindian ā€œdowntownā€ is ridiculous.

Another option which I am considering also long term would be Tianmu, as the price goes down there. Mostly, because of the parks and the schools. A similar environment but pricier is Neihu.

one thing I dislike is people saying ā€œof course buying in Taipei is out of the question, go outside of Taipei and youā€™ll find affordable homesā€ as if we the ones complaining about the prices were idiots for not doing the most obvious solution. yet the truth is that the pricing in Taipei is treated as an engine and the boondocks are the caboose that keeps getting pulled higher and higher.

This piece of news is another telltale sign that weā€™re reaching the precipice. Beginning in July this year, thereā€™s been a drastic increase in the number of court auction (foreclosed) homes (twice as many as the first half of the year). The number will continue to spike in the fourth quarter. Hope nobody is buying right now.

news.housefun.com.tw/news/articl ā€¦ 80063.html

I disagree with this mythical 30 million; it wonā€™t happen. Taiwanese women are delaying or not even having children is a fact mirroring what happens in Japan. Add to the fact that there is a patriarchal society whereby a large amount of sons stay at home and live with their parents in a large family home with an extended family.

There are rumors circulating that the mainlanders are allowed to buy apartments here as a investment but that is just that, a rumor. Iā€™m not sure how it is with HK residents .

None of this excuses the vast amounts of apartments being built with supply far exceeding demand. Itā€™s a simple matter of it being a buyers market and you can negotiate a good deal if you wish to buy.

The economist magazine did an article 3-4 years ago on the yields on a flat. It concluded that Taiwanese landlords get the worst deal on the planet after their counterparts in , wait for it, Monaco.

To sum it up, with out a vast influx of new residents on the island within the next 5 years there will be over supply of new homes with the developers taking a huge hit. It would also be worth remembering that the economic crisis which gripped the world for the last 7-8 years stemmed from the real estate. Thailand in the late 90ā€™s and early 2000"s suffered a similar fate with an over supply of new (and luxury) apartments . The demographics of Taiwan donā€™t support such a frenzied supply of new developments. Spain is still suffering from huge developments that went sour.

[quote=ā€œIncubusā€]This piece of news is another telltale sign that weā€™re reaching the precipice. Beginning in July this year, thereā€™s been a drastic increase in the number of court auction (foreclosed) homes (twice as many as the first half of the year). The number will continue to spike in the fourth quarter. Hope nobody is buying right now.

news.housefun.com.tw/news/articl ā€¦ 80063.html[/quote]

The foreclosed homes getting sold off in July defaulted in January. The ones defaulting now will show up in the auction numbers next spring. The piece mentioned that the experts predicted a solid increase in this number.

This is the start, yes the market is indeed tipping over.

Last time something like this happened was in 191-1992, and it took 10 years to hit bottom. This was a drag on Taiwanā€™s economy even as the export engine was humming. I recall the economist at the brokerage showing that construction was hard hit by cyclical unemployment in 2001-2002, however the rest of the economy was able to pick up some of the slack. Not so this time, I fear. So - we are looking at house prices going down down and down over the next several years, I think.

Would this be a good renterā€™s market?

In Ireland following the property bust rents initially went down as people lost their jobs and immigrants left and locals emigrated. But quickly enough rents increased as nobody could or would buy a house, now just a few years later rents have got super expensive in the capital and there are not enough
houses.

The difference, population growth. Taiwanā€™s property market is in trouble because of this reason, and then throw in severely aging populationā€¦here comes Japan!

I am doomed to be a renter. I feel like the squirrel in Ice Age. Just about to reach the goal whenā€¦I received the news that my lovely country of origin has been put on the black list of ā€œnot allowed to buyā€ā€¦ due to reciprocity. My lovely chupamedias, kiss Taluā€™s derriere governmentā€¦ Will never ever vote again.

That said, man, even though prices have dropped a bit bit in Xindian, the prices are still ridiculous.

[quote=ā€œIconā€]I am doomed to be a renter. I feel like the squirrel in Ice Age. Just about to reach the goal whenā€¦I received the news that my lovely country of origin has been put on the black list of ā€œnot allowed to buyā€ā€¦ due to reciprocity. My lovely chupamedias, kiss Taluā€™s derriere governmentā€¦ Will never ever vote again.

That said, man, even though prices have dropped a bit bit in Xindian, the prices are still ridiculous.[/quote]

Consider yourself lucky. If you buy now, you will take the mother of all baths. Rent, and save up the money saved on the mortgange payments.

Whoā€™s Talu?

Dalu, Icon is a master of languages but not of Pinyin.

I legitimately thought that was some sort of aboriginal nameā€¦

The other side of the Strait. The Dark Side. Habit from work.

Thought youā€™d ask what a chupamedias was. Love that word since I learned it from fellow Latinos. Like extrarradio and chiringuito, has a certain ring to it.

Most likely there would a correction in the buy vs rent equation. Right now the equation is completely out of whack with historical norms and norms from other countries. So rents would likely stay the same while price to own would come down. There could be significant inconvenience for renters in individual cases if your particular apartment was foreclosed or the seller was forced to sell.

Yeah, like my landlord, who if he got a mortgage to buy this place recently, would not get his money back for it ā€¦ever. It would cost something like
50-70 years of my rent
to buy the place not including inflation but also not including depreciation and maintenance costs and taxes.

BTW, most recent mortgage contracts run 30 years, from 3 friends who recently took the plunge. 30 friggin years with ā€œmobileā€ interestsā€¦ this is going to get interesting somewhere down the line.

And talking about rents, a pal went to a business meting with her hubby. Sitting there, sipping her coffee, a bit bored, she was jolted awake when the laoban mentioned he was paying 120 K for rent on the itsy bitsy out of the way coffee shop they were sitting in. I mean, it is a bit close to Songyan road, but please! :astonished: How the heck are you going to make a profit, heck, make ends meet on that amount?! Business rents are absolutely ridiculous. 20k for the right to part your cart at a traditional market/night market, 60k for Shida window outletā€¦ That may compensate for cheap housing rents.

But heaven help us if rents start going up, too.

Office space is fairly cheap, I pay NT$1200 per month per ping of space.

My flat - 258 years of rent to buy.

The US dollar is strengthening and itā€™s
going to create chaos in currency markets, the Euro and Yen have been weakened, and Japanā€™s deficit is going to explode. Things are changing now as the US will start to suck in tonnes of capital leaving some fish gulping for air on land.

[quote=ā€œMr Heā€]Office space is fairly cheap, I pay NT$1200 per month per ping of space.

My flat - 258 years of rent to buy.[/quote]

But how in heavenā€™s name are you going to make a business pay rent of 120k, salaries for employees, power for AC, gas for cooking, water bills, taxes and make a profit? In the ol country I know how, but here?! :ponder: :loco:

No wonder storefronts change more often than underwear.

[quote=ā€œIconā€]BTW, most recent mortgage contracts run 30 years, from 3 friends who recently took the plunge. 30 friggin years with ā€œmobileā€ interestsā€¦ this is going to get interesting somewhere down the line.

And talking about rents, a pal went to a business meting with her hubby. Sitting there, sipping her coffee, a bit bored, she was jolted awake when the laoban mentioned he was paying 120 K for rent on the itsy bitsy out of the way coffee shop they were sitting in. I mean, it is a bit close to Songyan road, but please! :astonished: How the heck are you going to make a profit, heck, make ends meet on that amount?! Business rents are absolutely ridiculous. 20k for the right to part your cart at a traditional market/night market, 60k for Shi-Da window outletā€¦ That may compensate for cheap housing rents.

But heaven help us if rents start going up, too.[/quote]

In Gongguan area you pay up to 60K for a closet in a pillar ā€¦ not kidding.

Renting out a property is not the main issue ā€¦ itā€™s the investment and return of the investment when selling the property. Rent received is an extra. And I guess people that buy really expensive places donā€™t basically take a mortgage ā€¦