I have trouble placing some stories on this topic, so here’s a thread
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That’s not a good sign
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The prolonged slump in China’s property sector has brought previously sound companies to their knees, with the likes of Central China Real Estate Ltd., a state-backed developer, repeatedly using grace periods to buy time before stopping payments. In July, creditors of a unit of Dalian Wanda Group Co. and state-backed Sino-Ocean Group Holding Ltd. received coupons at the last minute.
Developers using grace periods for coupon payments “is a bad signal that reflects tight liquidity,” said Iris Chen, a credit desk analyst at Nomura International HK Ltd. But distressed developers might not care that much as their bonds are already trading at low cash prices, she added.
Why not just reborrow from themselves? It’s worked wonders so far, an economic miracle for the supersmartnrich aristocracy.
With the tech squeeze coming for them, they should rename their entire economy callsign Maytag.
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More ripples, still no tsunami
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I’m trying to gauge the actual situation…
If anyone interested in following China economy ,these are the three main sources I trust and think reliable:
China Beige Book https://twitter.com/ChinaBeigeBook
Macro Polo https://twitter.com/ChinaBeigeBook
Michael Pettis(so called Dr Doom as has been predicting doom and gloom for China) https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis
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Ok, let me know when you get the latest unemployment numbers
If there is anything specific from those sources you think is an interesting development, please do feel free to share with us here!
Which of these have you found to be most accurate? My guess is chinabeigebook, but i wouldn’t be surprised if it were chinabeigebook 
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Thats a component, just trying to understand where things are going. Honestly dont like overly-glib commentary. In fact hate it
They are all good and all worth following. Im reading everyday. Because its hard to get real assements of China economy
Im guessing you are looking ‘boom boom collapse boom’ headline article. There is a lot of those article. I dont think they are going to collapse, they won’t because of the nature of the Chinese economic system. They question is all what the government does next
fuck https://twitter.com/MacroPoloChina
Shanghai Macro Strategist is also good https://twitter.com/ShanghaiMacro
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Tongue-in-cheek. They stopped reporting unemployment numbers. The point is, we can’t understand the actual situation except as things unfold, like the two developments that I just shared. It’s all guesswork, because the Chinese economy wasn’t transparent when it was healthy.
I’m sorry that you don’t get the humor.
I use flipboard to quickly go through a variety of sources and topics, in addition to Forumosa. Not planning on adding more reading to my regular rotation. If you can’t be bothered to share anything here, I guess there isn’t anything I really need to see from them
I shared 2. That’s not glib, it is counting past 1
The first story I actually first read about yesterday, but waited for a better source.
Also, note that my comment specifically says not a tsunami
Sure, but this isnt 2004 anymore. There are stressors on their economy that are new and can’t be wiped away so easily, the pragmatic technocrats aren’t in control anymore. What the government does next could help right the ship, or could accelerate the sinking. I’m just sharing developments as they happen.
You are welcome to do the same
I figured it was a copypasta mistake, and figured you must have something more up to date than this guy
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There is a really really good analysis from a Chinese professor, but its in China. He says that China is going to follow the Soviet Union in the 80s.
Xi has an old communist soul. He equally does not trust:
- US led global system and especially finance sector
- China’s own private industries and entrepreneurs
He hates both and fears both. He sees them as his enemies. He sees them as the main threats to the party and the country
He sees capitalism as flawed and focused on short-termism, and China’s superior system that can allocate resources on mass and work long-term will be victorious. Or stuff like this. He is a true believer
He is trying to take China back to something more like the planned economy that they left in 92 and give more power to the SOE.
The problem is that they are already too exposed to the global markets and cant decouple or shut themselves off, so they are facing simiar problems that the USSR in the mid-80s when they started to liberalize. So there is a contradiction all the way through the system and it cant go well. The chance of collapse in the mid-long term is not impossible in the current trajectory, but its not unlikely
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That ties his hands a bit. Anyways, I don’t listen to podcasts because I read way faster than they can speak.
excellent, does he know what happened right after that?
None of this is news
Thats was China Beige Book and the other think tanks do, and thats why I shared them. They are adept at looking at the public data and other variables and research and give an estimate of what the actual situation is. A number of simiar thinktanks also exist as necessity because of the opaqueness of China’s economy and reporting.
Just thought would be useful for people to know about these sources in general, if there is a lot of interest in China economy watching
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I didnt say it was news. I’m just transcribing some of what I remembered he said
yes thats kind of the point. China also doesnt have a Gorbachev
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He doesnt live in China
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Oh, sorry, I misunderstood
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https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1693229457111191678?s=20
Good thread from Michael Pettis on why the Chinese model actually broke down 10-15 years ago
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It should be that collapse is unlikely but possible.
Those who believe that Chinese entrepreneurship and growth have thrived under a magical formula of statism ignore the role that Hong Kong played in providing the conventional pillars of market finance and the rule of law.
Good article on how important a free and stable functioning HK with rule of law was to China’s previous dynamism. And how obviously that situation has now changed with the National Security Law
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This is an article from the same Stanford professor, Xu Chenggang, in English from the end of last year, where he covers a lot of the points in the article. Really excellent article
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China today no more different than the dynasties, except CCP provides the emperor and princelings. Just like dynasties would collapse due to weak central power in Beijing and strong outlying provinces, so might CCP collapse. But, to be honest, if there is chaos in China (like CCP implosion) it ain’t gonna be good during the implosion as anything could happen, even in regards to Taiwan. Anyway, can only observe and wait.