A dose of realism for Taiwanese independence advocates

Politics Taiwan Politics
1

In theory, the idea of Taiwanese independence is a nice one. But its advocates sometimes truly come off as if they are living in another world, and not this one that the rest of us are in.

Taiwan’s current diplomatic allies are a joke. They are composed of nations without any pull on the world scene, and some nations that may have you scratching your head wondering where they are located on the map (even if your geography is very good) Not to mention the fact that Taiwan bought off a number of them in exchange for their diplomatic support.

To name a few: Chad, Senegal, Burkina Faso, Gambia, The Marshall Islands, Honduras (also a member of the Coalition of the Willing), some heavy hitters indeed.

The following excerpts from an editorial in today’s Taipei Times show the delusions so apparent in the arguments of Taiwanese independence advocates:

[quote] Yet the UN’s treatment of Taiwan is an abomination. Taiwan is a democratic nation with a free citizenry, a country that was liberated through its own citizens’ determination, without UN support, and despite the UN’s malice.

The UN is too busy supporting a totalitarian, uncivilized regime to demand the total submission of a people threatening the use of force, and threatening to annex a nation it has never even set foot on. On that score, the UN is a total failure.

[/quote]

The UN, as corrupt and ineffective an organization as it is, is nonetheless a realistic one. China’s a a heavy hitter and a rising power, and also sits on the Security Council and holds veto power. Taiwan has no chance of gaining a UN seat, and should concentrate its energy on more worthwhile pursuits.

Taiwanese independence advocates would do very well to take a look at the world scene, and ask themselves, does the rest of the world have any intention of extending official diplomatic recognition to us? Among the nations wielding veto power on the UN Security Council besides China, none, including the US, have official ties with Taiwan.

Even Japan, Taiwan’s so-called ally, has no diplomatic ties with it. Nor does South Korea. Nor does India. Nor does Brazil. Come to think of it, no nation of any significance has diplomatic ties with Taiwan.

So Taiwan suffers from diplomatic isolation. It has for a while, and will continue do so, while the best Chen can do is take a tour to the Marshall Islands and enjoy some fun in the sun, or urge other countries to extend official ties to Taiwan, like he just tried to do with Canada. It’s futile, embarrassing, and a waste of time and resources.

But independence advocates cling to their pipe dream nevertheless, ignoring the fact that most people in the country care most about one thing: the wellbeing of their families and their own fortunes, which are inextricably linked to Taiwan’s economy. You don’t have to be a corrupt Guomindang politician whose pockets got fat off the people to think in this manner.

At heart, people in Taiwan are entrepreneurial and care most about their families. Chen is always talking about how the fate of Taiwan is dependent on the wishes of its 23 million people. Its people, while not wanting to be absorbed by China, also do not want conflict. When push comes to shove, the majority would support a peaceful resolution to the China problem, but one that maintains Taiwan’s sovereignty.

Clearly, Lien Zhan and James Song aren’t the men for the job. Shameless, weak, and wilting like uncared for orchids, they will inevitably fade into the background, albeit not fast enough for most people’s liking. But so will the independence movement, and its loudmouths like Li Denghui. Li is embarrassing himself and really needs to retire to Japan where he belongs.

A moderate politician who intelligently pursues negotiations with China that improve the lives of Taiwanese citizens will be embraced by the people. Whether this person is Ma Yingjiu or someone else, he will be the one who sets Taiwan on the track of progress and increased prosperity.

2

These are truly “words of wisdom.”

3

Solid post Etheorial. Like Hartzel, this bit intriged me though

The PRC authorities don’t have much of track record on negotiation. They didn’t negotiate with the British over Hong Kong - they told them what they wanted and let the Brits fill in the pieces that weren’t important to them. Chris Pattern’s book ‘East and West’ gives a great rundown on his experience of the ‘negotiation’ process during the last days of the colonial administration. Basically, the Chinese bottom line was also their starting position, and that was more or less NO to anything that would undermine Beijing’s authority in HK. Why should we expect anything more from the PRC if they enter into ‘negotiations’ with Taiwan?

While cross-strait dialogue may be good in and of itself, can we really expect the PRC to give the poor bastard who makes the journey anything decent to bring home to Taiwan? I see Michael Collins written all over this. Think about it - Taiwan authorizes a good man like MYJ to travel to Peking to cut a deal. He gets there and they offer him the Jiang Badian. He very reluctantly accepts because they don’t budge a bit on any of the points, and they surrepticiously threaten armed conflict if the ‘negotiation’ process collapses. Ma comes home with his tail between his legs, and once home, the Peking authorites announce that Taiwan has finally accepted the Yiguo Liangzhi formula… In turn, Ma gets fried by the 70% of the Taiwan population who preferred the old ‘status quo.’

There is no negotiating with the PRC. The job for the Taiwan rep would be nothing but a poison challice.

Apologies for spelling errors…

4

right guangtou,

Not only is there no actual “negotiation” with China, but the so-called “negotiations” would have to begin with a surrender (a formal aceptance that Taiwan is already part of China). To enter into negotiations under those terms would end any chance of future
international support for a free Taiwan. It would also reward China’s bullying and encourage it to proceed with additional expansionist plans.

On the plus side (for the blue camp, that is) it would assure that that the traitors who are complicit in the sellout of Taiwan are rewarded with powerful positions and never have to face any consequences for their crimes. (In my opinion, this is the main reason for the sudden cozying up to China by the blues and for their desire to keep Taiwan weak by not purchasing defensive arms. They have already decided to cut a deal and are actively working on behalf of Beijing to bring that about as fast as possible, without regard to what the people of taiwan want.)

As for the initial post, there is nothing delusional about the quote from the TT. It is an accurate description of the current situation.

Thinking that the PRC owns Taiwan is delusional. So is the blind belief that joining China will lead to prosperity for Taiwan. Believing that appeasing the Beijing dictators will buy peace and prosperity is not only delusional, but downright foolish.

5

i have to admit the title of this post made me chuckle. no one gets slapped in the face by reality more than a taiwan independence advocate. in fact they understand the situation and have actually bent to reality enormously. i bet when Chen was first elected you never would have said Chen would be as moderate as he has been. heck Lee was probably more radical. don’t forget a lot of the policies you describe date back to the kmt reign.

[quote=“Etheorial”] Chen is always talking about how the fate of Taiwan is dependent on the wishes of its 23 million people. Its people, while not wanting to be absorbed by China, also do not want conflict. When push comes to shove, the majority would support a peaceful resolution to the China problem, but one that maintains Taiwan’s sovereignty.
[/quote]

Well the majority needs a dose of reality too then! Now there’s a pipe dream.

He may be embraced by the people but it remains to be seen what he’ll get out of China. they hold all the cards and they ain’t gonna be giving anything away!

6

Granted this is aimed at me, however, China has made it clear that diplomatic channels begin with accepting the One China principle. I’m extremely weary of that looking at Hong Kong. Democracy is not something I’d give up easily.

If they allowed dialogue without constraints, you bet I’d be there in a nanosecond.

To clarify, I never called for Taiwan to announce Independence immediately. In fact I don’t even think Taiwan needs to at this point or in the near future, status quo fits us nicely. However if China does something stupid, you know how I’d reply. At that I am a staunch TI supporter.

7

This is unusual for a Taiwan Politics thread, but I pretty much agree with everyone who has posted here so far.

Decenty post Etheorial, but like rotorman, I can’t disagree with the TT quote:

[quote]Yet the UN’s treatment of Taiwan is an abomination. Taiwan is a democratic nation with a free citizenry, a country that was liberated through its own citizens’ determination, without UN support, and despite the UN’s malice.

the UN is too busy supporting a totalitarian, uncivilized regime to demand the total submission of a people threatening the use of force, and threatening to annex a nation it has never even set foot on. On that score, the UN is a total failure.[/quote]

I think most TIers are not that radical. They want the ‘straits issue’ resolved in such a way that Taiwan remains independent, without the threat of conquest by China. But I’d say the vast majority want to try and pursue this through realistic means. Of course the extremists always have the loudest voice.

Brian

8

I think realistic negotiations between ROC and PRC will require some achievable goals.

Taiwan will not become a Holko Nation State in the UN nor will it become a province in the PRC.

As long as people and leaders on both sides understand major concessions will need to happen on key issues for a peaceful resolution to the Strait Issue to occur.

9

Like how China massed their PLA all over the Hong Kong-Canton border to pressure Thatcher into giving all of Hong Kong away to China in perpetuity?

10

The thing is that you have to give up on (or at least consider negotiable a la the KMT) Taiwan’s independence to get the PRC to the negotiation table.

You can’t have your cake and eat it too, that is you can’t have stability and independece at the same time in the current politcal environment.

11

[quote=“taiwansotherside”]The thing is that you have to give up on (or at least consider negotiable a la the KMT) Taiwan’s independence to get the PRC to the negotiation table.

You can’t have your cake and eat it too, that is you can’t have stability and independece at the same time in the current politcal environment.[/quote]

If we give up on the independence card and become a part of China, then we’ve lost your entire deck before negotiations have even begun. Look at Hong Kong and the decline in press freedom and civil liberties.

No China must negotiate on our terms, they are the ones that want us to become a part of them, not the other way around.

Besides, China prides itself in snail-like progress and slow reform. They should have no problems waiting decades, even centuries for Taiwan. If we Taiwanese are Soooo worth it, you’ll wait for us right? Its like the girlfriend that asks for a break; be nice not “an abusive ex-boyfriend.”

12

Perhaps an American can demand this. But an ROC citizen. What leverage does ROC have to demand anything from the PRC as each passing year goes by?

It use to be Taiwan’s leverage was in it more advanced economy. However, that’s slowly disappearing.

Now Taiwan uses its government process as the trump card. However, the more you look into it Taiwan’s version of democracy seem like a liability and not an asset for the country.

This is the decade of rude awakenings I’m afraid.

Here is an interesting quote from Richard Lawless a US assistant of an assistant bearucrat.

[quote]Stand up for yourselves, Lawless tells Taiwanese - Taipei Times

“We cannot help defend you, if you cannot defend yourself,” the speech concluded. “We encourage our Taiwan friends both Blues and Greens, and more importantly I urge the people of Taiwan to think very hard about the future of Taiwan – how should it look, how should it feel, and what is it worth?” [/quote]

Would you be so bold to demand USA must negotiate the arms package on ROC terms?

But ironically if ROC could defend itself, why would we need the USA?

13

[quote=“ShrimpCrackers”][quote=“taiwansotherside”]The thing is that you have to give up on (or at least consider negotiable a la the KMT) Taiwan’s independence to get the PRC to the negotiation table.

You can’t have your cake and eat it too, that is you can’t have stability and independece at the same time in the current politcal environment.[/quote]

If we give up on the independence card and become a part of China, then we’ve lost your entire deck before negotiations have even begun. Look at Hong Kong and the decline in press freedom and civil liberties.

No China must negotiate on our terms, they are the ones that want us to become a part of them, not the other way around.

Besides, China prides itself in snail-like progress and slow reform. They should have no problems waiting decades, even centuries for Taiwan. If we Taiwanese are Soooo worth it, you’ll wait for us right? Its like the girlfriend that asks for a break; be nice not “an abusive ex-boyfriend.”[/quote]

Taiwan is East Asia’s golden goose after all. We are the number 1 producer of semiconductors. Surely Dell, Microsoft, Intel, NEC, Sanyo, Samsung, Sony, TCL, and even Magnavox will have some say before China decides to sexually abuse his Taiwanese love interest.

It also does not help that Taiwan has been leading on the Japanese and American suitors for nearly over 50 years now, is it? :smiley:

14

Well put. It seems that whatever our personal views, the one thing we can agree on is that more moderation is what everyone needs.

The efforts to get Taiwan into the UN are like trying to push bricks up a hosepipe - pointless, painful and a waste of perfectly good bricks (err…)

My personal take on the independence issue, since I’ve not really posted my political views before, is:

  1. most Taiwanese don’t care about independence half as much as they care about their jobs, family, stability and future. As much as I despise the CPC and want nothing to do with it, peoples’ lives and livelihoods come before my idealism.

  2. that said, unification under China’s terms is potentially a recipe for destabilising Taiwan both economically and socially. This isn’t HK mkII… we all know this is a whole different kettle of fish.

  3. I oppose ‘one China two systems’ but no longer actively support de jure independence under the current climate. The PRC’s semi-socialist autocracy is fundamentally incompatible with Taiwan’s self-built democracy and capitalist economy. Square plug, round hole, anyone? However, Taiwan is not an independent sovereign state according to international law (I’m sure more informed forumosans could back me up on this one) and realistically can’t become one unless prepared for a very very bloody war with China. If China can wait, then so can Taiwan.

  4. yes, I’m sitting on the fence but what else is there to do right now? Independence advocates should put a hold on ruffling feathers and the pan-blues should stop selfishly undermining the president elect. Whatever Taiwan’s international status, the majority have voted to be represented by CSB through the DPP.

  5. despite their noises to the contrary, China is the one holding the key to unblocking this stalemate. Their usual ‘negotiating’ tactic of ridiculous pre-conditions is making this a lot stickier than necessary. Am I the only one who sees DPP<->PRC negotations not only as the right thing for the PRC to do, but the key to start something good happening? (I note that Chen has recently offered talks with Beijing once again - sans one china pre-condition, of course). Am I stupid and naive? Does the PRC have their cards stacked on Taiwan eventually destabilising enough so that they can move in and take complete and unequivocal control a la Tibet? Answers on a postcard please because I’ll admit I’m buggered if I know.

  6. Ma YingJiu? Hmm, not my first choice. Or second. Or tenth. But I agree in principle. Once again, great post.

15

Yes, CSB just called for talks with China as he has dozens of times previously. What did he get? Scorn from the KMT for not first accepting the “One [m.f.] China” principle first. Will the CCP, KMT and PFP unification parties accept a “one Taiwan” principle ahead of negotiations?

I’d say wait it out and see who’ll implode first, a communist government or a democratic one. Taiwan has already prospered without many friends or being in the UN. Prepare for war just in case, but let the good times roll!

16

Most Taiwanese do not want reunification now, but may consider it in the future. They don’t want to deal with it now. Then there are those who rule it out and demand steps to formalize independence. The DPP, by virtue of its 1991 Taiwan independence party charter, falls into the latter category. The only caveat is that since the late 90s, it has deluded itself into believing it can cheat its way out of the most difficult dilemma by saying Taiwan is “already” (de jure) independent.

Most Chinese mainlanders will not accept de jure independence for Taiwan now, but may decide differently in the future. They don’t want to deal with it now. Then there are those who rule it out and demand steps to achieve reunification. The CCP, by virtue of its well known policy, falls into the latter category. The only caveat is that since the 70s, it has deluded itself into believing it can cheat its way out of the most difficult dilemma by saying that it is the (sole) legitimate sovereign ruler over China (incl. Taiwan).

So, it is patently obvious the CCP will not accept anything less than something that rules out the notion that Taiwan is currently de jure independent, which isn’t true, and that the DPP will not accept anything less than something that rules out the notion that Taiwan is under CCP jurisdiction, which isn’t true.

This does not mean, however, that the CPP cannot accept something that insinuates Taiwan is de facto self ruling, which is true, and that the DPP should not accept something that insinuates Taiwan is not ruled by CCP, which is true. This particular intersection is known as “one China, different interpretations;” the finessing is made possible by the existence of ROC. That’s about the only thing left on the table for a near-term peaceful settlement. It is what TI/ers like CSB repeatedly shoot down as a “pre-condition,” I think, for obvious reasons given their goals.

There is this notion that “one China, different interpretations” is a “ridiculous precondition” and a “final settlement.” It is obviously not a final settlement and it is not a ridiculous precondition because talks have been conducted under such in 1992 and once afterwards under LTH, before he decided to show his Japanese heritage.

Besides politics, there are many other matters that show how reactionary the DPP and your typical TI/er have been or still are. Why must flights to Shanghai detour through Hong Kong? Why until recently must Europe-bound airlines detour around all of mainland China? Why can’t mainland Chinese tourists visit Taiwan? Why did overseas-resident PRC tourists have a curfew in Taiwan? Why do TI/ers fear a pair of pandas? Why can mainland Chinese not invest in Taiwan? Why were investment in the mainland from Taiwanese blocked by LTH, who unsuccessfully attempted to divert it to southeast Asia? Why are some fairly innocuous companies still held back from investing in mainland China? Why are mainlanders who marry Taiwnese questioned about their sex lives on entering Taiwan? All because of security? Give me a fucking break. When Taiwan opens up, you read me right – opens up, to the mainland and people can figure out what they want, who they want to live with, whether they are Chinese or not, where to work or do business like a normal interaction between Taiwanese and anybody other than mainland Chinese, then we can talk about the “square peg round hole” argument. As long as TI/ers act like they’re coming down with the black plague as soon as a mainland Chinese walks into a room, they will continue to be marginalized – by themselves.

17

You’re mistaken, the main “disattraction” that China brings is partially in its propoganda; “Since Ancient Times…” the Chinese rulers have mistreated their own and the Taiwanese.

History repeats itself and given the current nationalism, little suggests that the Chinese will treat the Taiwanese any better, but much to suggest that they will treat us far worse.

18

What’s your proof. 1 million ROC citizens living in the PRC now would probably disagree.

19

What’s your proof. 1 million ROC citizens living in the PRC now would probably disagree.[/quote]

Has it ever occurred to you that most of the 1 million ROC citizens living in the ROC are there to manage their businesses?

Just ask how many of your Taiwanese associates who do business or have factories in China have relatives there personally managing? I have 9+ relatives that regularly travel to China as a result.
However, even my uncle who appeared in Wired in 2001, said in the last concluding paragraph that he’d defend Taiwan.

20

If PRC was such a terrible place, they would have found way to manage their business without being there.

Every ABC and ROC citizen I spoken to enjoys themselves on while doing business on the mainland.

I think your relative will defend his business interest. Let put it this way TI supporters will renounce their TI interest in ROC newpapers in order to appease the PRC. It is just human nature, self interest above all else.

ROC business people are realistic to the point of cold heartedness by western standards you seem to be so fond of.