The simulation clearly shows that when China starts its military operations against the Comintern, that is by advancing into Outer Mongolia, the Mongol forces will retreat to defend their capital, unable to repel the Chinese bulldozer.
Logistics is not that important at this stage, because China will not advance far from its own border, unlike Napoleon and Hitler who both crumbled once far into Russian territories due to the level of attrition.
However, it is true that the Soviets forces might occupy large parts of Western Xinjiang for similar reasons!
But in this initial phase of war of positions, this minor inconvenience for China will not last more than 4 years, and will on the contrary play in the anti-Comintern coalitionâs favor in the long run.
Stretching the frontline over 4000 to 5000 km forcing the deployment of at least 100 to 200 Comintern divisions facing the 150 plus Chinese divisions.
Ⲡ2. Sino-Comintern war frontline stretching over 4000 to 5000 km.
When the Germans launch their Operation Barbarossa in 1941, this will add another 3000 km of frontline, thus further stretching the Soviet defence.
Ⲡ2. Axis-Comintern war frontline stretching over 3000 km.
Whereas historically, the Soviet Far Eastern divisions went to the defence of the Western Front.
In the second phase of the war, the breakthrough of China only starts after 1941, and stops when meeting the German armies at Stalingrad.
Alas, this only reflects the sad state of the public education in the Europes (U.S., Russia, Europes and colonies): although being âextinction level eventsâ, Atilla and the Mongols are never taught until the University.
win via culture haha! In Estonia, Lithuania as well as Taiwan people like to talk to me about (sometimes a lot, and know more than me) Japanese culture and food
The Mighty Chinese dragon is not to be confused with the puny Japanese Imperial Army!
⢠If Japan could not advance into Outer Mongolian territories, one of the many the reasons is the absence of any core on these regions.
Unlike China who has core on all of Outer Mongolia, Outer Manchuria, Tannu Tuva and even beyond.
This huge difference will cause tremendous attrition and partisan warfare for the Japanese, while China suffers no penalty (as a liberator).
In addition Japan fought in uncharted territories, while China was at home throughout Siberia as far as the North Sea (ĺ澡:Baikal).
⢠The Japanese could not advance in Outer Mongolia because by 1939, its main military forces were already bogged down for 2 years in the South due to the stiff resistance opposed by the mighty Chinese Second United Front!
By then, the Mikado only had a few Manchukuoâs Kwantung Army spared divisions of second rate to engage in Mongolia.
Unlike any hypothetical Chinese offensive against the Comintern, where 150 to 200 infantry divisions would be launched over a 4000 km front line, forcing the Mongols to retreat to avoid any fatal encirclement move from both the south and the east, synonym of annihilation.
This is overlooking the major and decisive victories achieved by the Chinese gallant military servicemen and women over the Empire of Japan in 15 years of patriotic war.
Please educate yourself, as history donât lie. Only Hollywood monopolizing the victories for themselves.
Indeed, one of the most famous military campaign launched by the Eighth Route Army under Peng Dehuai has not only left the Imperial Japanese Army totally devastated but forced the Mikado to adopt a desperate self-defeating and ultimately futile last-ditch defence strategy known under the most infamous nom de guerre âThree Allâ (kill all, burn all, and destroy all). |1||2|
Anatoly Fomenko is a kind of genius, a personality worth to make a Holywood movie about . He was a mathematician specialized in topology. In the end of 1980s, when the Soviet Union was collapsing, he published a paper on some incongruencies between âletopisâ (chronicles) and astronomical events. And he proposed his alternative version of these historical events. I think he made it out of fun, a bored intellectual, you know⌠But somehow his scribbles attracted a fair degree of public attention during this turbulent time. I guess Anatoly realized that he could make lots of dough, as an academic mathematician he could not make that much in the harsh realities of postsoviet 1990s Russia. He started to create his own lore, equal to Tolkienâs by its dimensions, using some pseudomathematics and general bullshitting techniques. In his lore, he created an alternative version of history with the Great Tartaria and nuclear war in 1812 during Napoleonâs invasion of Russia. Napoleon was the same person as Atilla and Gengis Khan. I donât know the details, but something like this⌠He published many books and has millions of followers in Russia, needless to say that he made millions of USA dollars out of them. Even some Yaroslavl city government official decided to build a museum dedicated to Fomenkoâs lore, I think Yaroslavl was the capital of the Great Tartaria, or something like this⌠Needless to say that academic historians are a part of the Great Conspiracy to hide the True History
Itâs a skirmish that left around 3000 dead on each side, but the Japanese probably only suffered around 2300 KIA. It didnât force any change in territory, and since it was a fairly late enagement, in 1940, the Japanese invasion of China had been going on for 4 years by then, the only thing it managed to do is for Japan to treat the CCP army as a security threat. Prior to that the CCP army did so little they were even on the Japanese radar. They assigned some people, including Okamura Yasuji, who assist CKS in his defence of Taiwan after the war, to drive out the CCP from Northern China, which he managed to do very efficiently.
Alas, wrong picture of the global situation (that reminds one of Russia claiming victory in Ukraine as we speak) based on number 10 time smaller than the reality!
Indeed, the epoch making âHundred Regiments Offensiveâ that lasted between 20th August to 5th December 1940, when both the U.S.A. and U.S.S.R. where still passive onlookers, witnessing history being fought by the true world superpowers, namely the R.O.C. and CPC, Axis, U.K. and France, saw 200,000 to 400,000 men strong, in 105 regiments of the Chinese Communist forces fighting 270,000 Japanese troops plus 150,000 Chinese pro-japan collaborators.
From this major clash, the Japanese and their collaborators would suffer 30,000 casualties. |1||2|
Again, this outcome forced the Mikado to adopt a desperate self-defeating and ultimately futile last-ditch defence strategy known under the most infamous nom de guerre âThree Allâ (kill all, burn all, and destroy all).
Do not forget that the Empire of Japan would have needed this 1 million plus occupation forces stuck in China for other theaters such as the coming Siberian campaign.
Self-defeating, as the more brutal the indiscriminate repression, the more guerilla partisans supporting the Communist would be created in the backfire.
Check the following map: half of the Japanese controlled territory is in fact peppered with guerilla-controlled zone!
Ⲡ|2||3||1||2| How Much of China did Japan Control at its Greatest Extent?
This means that the communist insurgency was growing exponentially.
Unstoppable.
How could a modern military such as the ruthless Empire of Japan be stalled by underequiped and undertrained insurgents, while not sparing the use of armored tanks, bombers, chemical and biological weapons?
One of the many reason is the specificity of guerilla tactics.
To avoid frontal assault, while striking at the weakest point. And in between, taking shelter and advancing undetected and protected by a decent layer of overburden.
This famous game-changing tactics is known as tunnel warfare and has been depicted in the cinema such as Tunnel Warfare (1965)|1||2|.
The success of this tactics was such that after the final victory of the CPC in 1949, it was even further introduced to Indochina, in support of their war of independence from 1946 to 1976.
@stoa1984 has inspected many of these military facilities, from the abandonned one in Northern Laos mountains, to the island-based of Halong Bay to the jungle-based in the south.
In some part, one can not even walk because of the narrowness, and while crawling there is no room for carrying additional equipment.
Bombproofed, with armored door, and even anti-biological air filters for the most advanced, underground hospitals have even been dug inside deep natural caves for treating the injured.
For these reasons the Peopleâs Army of Vietnam could never have been defeated, and it took nearly 50 years for Hollywood to finally immortalize this feat in the Ambush (2023) war movie. |1||2|
Posting a thorough reply was first avoided because of the possible negative feedback by some readers and risk of censorship by the moderators (as happened in other forums including on the one of the gameâs developersâ).
But without providing further substantiated details to support the above OP thesis, it was obvious that readers could fail to understand what was ultimately at stake during the WWII.
Here:
Table of content
2.1.1. Background: The Final War Theory
2.1.2. Ahistorical Factors Used In The Modelization
2.1.2.1. The 1946 Threshold
2.1.2.2. GDP Triggers
2.1.2.3. Chinaâs Strategic Focus
2.1.2.4. Collapse Of The Axis-GEACS Unholy Alliance
2.1.2.5. Occupation policy
2.1.2.6. The Fate Of The Ethnic Europeans
2.1.2. Ahistorical Factors Used In The Modelization
We used a computer simulation to verify the outcome resulting from each of the four possible strategic paths available to the Nipponese leaders in 1936:
⢠Neutrality
⢠Northern Expansion
⢠Southern Expansion
⢠Western Expansion
The simulation was run for several months on Paradoxâs WWII grand strategy game âHearts of Iron 4â (HOI4), but the base version was reworked with several custom made modifications. Extensive use of console commands were also necessary in order to change many unmoddable aspects during the simulations, such as ethnic and occupation policies, historic events, peace conferences, declarations of war, justifications of war, core and claimed territories, joining alliances, sending volunteers and expeditionary forces, etc.
What was first an educated guess, i.e. a Nipponese world conquest by 1947s, has therefore been confirmed as an ahistorical possibility.
Many decisive factors, ahistorical by nature due to the real course of the WWII, have contributed to the final outcome, and therefore have been taken into account in the modelization:
â˘The 1946 Threshold
â˘GDP Triggers
â˘Chinaâs Strategic Focus
â˘Collapse of the Axis-GEACS unholy alliance
â˘Occupation policy
The Republic of Chinaâs (R.O.C.) strategy should mainly be dictated by the core and claimed territories, as per the 1911 break up map of the collapsing Great Qing Imperial Government under the blows of the European sponsored Xinhai Revolution of 10th October 1911 (čžäşĽéŠĺ˝).
This means subjugating first the warlords (Ma Clique, Shansi Clique, Kwangsi Clique, Tunganistan, Dalai Clique, etc).
As for the foreign supported Communist Party of China (C.P.C.), and foreign satellites of Sinkiang, Mongolia, Tannu Tuva, Mengjiang and Manchukuo, Chiang Kai Shek believed that he was still too weak to launch an offensive to chase out foreign powers such as the Empire of Japan and the Soviet Union. He needed time for a military build-up. Only after unification would it be possible for the Kuomintang (K.M.T.) to mobilize a war against the Empire of Japan and the U.S.S.R.
It is expected that following the victory achieved during Chiang Kai Shek and Hans von Seecktâs Fifth Bandit Extermination Campaign against the Jiangsu Soviet, that finally led in October 1934 to the famous Long March, the Kuomintang would have launched another campaign to destroy the Soviet base in Shaanxi where the Communist Army had regrouped in October 22, 1935. |1||2|
In most of the simulations, the Communist Party of China (C.P.C.) base in Shaanxi could be overtaken after 4 years of fighting by 1939, and sometimes even earlier.
This means that by the time WWII starts in Europe, with Fall Weiss or the German war on Poland on 1st September 1939, the R.O.C., having unified all the splinter factions, could have chased the remnants of the C.P.C. in the Soviet Sinkiang or Mongolia.
Alternately, declaring war on Mongolia and Sinkiang would have been made possible due to the core territories claimed by the R.O.C.
To a lesser extent, the Sino-Soviet conflict of 1929 provides also a small leftover for a casus belli (level of tension).
Moreover, the presence of German military advisors such as Alexander von Falkenhausen were from day one intended to wage a two fronts war on the U.S.S.R.
An even better strategy is to wait and take time for a military build-up. About two years later, upon the start of Operation Barbarossa on 22nd June 1941, the R.O.C. would launch its own forces northward and westward, with a devastating effect on the Soviets. |1||2|
2.1.2.4. Collapse Of The Axis-GEACS Unholy Alliance
Racism indisputably played a central role during WWII. While Italian fascism was not notably racist, both German and Nipponese fascism were deeply racist. Although Himmler convinced himself that the Japanese had âAryanâ blood, he could not convince Hitler, who received Oshima twice shortly after Pearl Harbor but then not again for over a year. A Japanese proposal to attack Madagascar in 1942 was strongly opposed by the Germans as an infringement on the German sphere of operations (the dividing line was at 70 degrees east longitude.) Hitler is reported to have stated in March 1942 that he would enjoy lending Britain twenty divisions with which to drive back the Japanese in the Far East. Allied prisoners of war working at the docks at Singapore later reported that a U-boat crew had come to attention and saluted them as they were marched past by their Japanese captors.
Some idea of how artificial the alliance was can be gleaned from a communication on 26th July 1941 from the Thai prime minister to the American minister (Prange 1988):
The prime minister of Thailand advised the American minister that the German military attachĂŠ had warned him against âgoing too farâ with Japan because âyou cannot trust Japan.â The attachĂŠ added ominously that Germany would âsettle with the Empire of Japan after she has won the war in Europe.â |1||2|
In other words, the German âadmirationâ for Japan was as thoroughly cynical as the nonagression pact with the Soviet Union; and, had Germany won the war in Europe, the alliance with the Empire of Japan would very likely have eventually ended the same way. |1||2|
Ⲡ|2||3||1||2| The dividing line between the Nipponese and German sphere of interests was at 70th degrees east longitude. Hitler seemed to prefer the 70th degree of longitude border with the Empire of Japan (and only intended it as a temporary measure until he could defeat the Japanese in a subsequent war), the OKW preferred the Yenisei river border.
List of the most significant historical events potentially seen as a casus belli by Hitler against the Empire of Japan:
â˘By invading the Republic of China in 1937, a nation with an army reorganized and trained by German advisors and an important trade partner, the Nipponese have harmed the German interests in East Asia, especially their preparations to wage a two-front war on the Comintern.
â˘On December 6, 1938, the Five ministers council which was the highest decision making council at the time,took the decision to prohibit the expulsion of the Jews from Japan, Manchuria, and China in accordance with the spirit of racial equality. Thereafter, the Nipponese received Jewish refugees despite Germanyâs opposition, thus totally undermining Hitlerâs endeavour to exterminate that ethic group.
â˘The JapaneseâSoviet Non-aggression Pact signed on April 13, 1941, allowed the Nipponese to trade with Germanyâs worse enemy until the final collapse of the Third Reich. By not declaring war on the Soviet Union, before and after 1941 as requested by Hitler, the Nipponese did nothing to save the doomed Axis.
â˘By demanding the control of French Indochina, the Nipponese have harmed the German interests in East Asia, and weakened the prestige and legitimacy of the German puppet French State of Philippe Petain, thus increasing the probability of further betrayal of French overseas colonies, that could be incited to defect to the Free France of De Gaulles.
â˘By invading Thailand on 8th December 1941, a nation considered to be in the German sphere of interest, and that has recently pledged its allegiance by germanising its Siamese name as âThailandâ in 23rd June 1939, while adopting the same militaristic and nationalistic rhetoric, the Nipponese have undermined the Germansâ ambitions in South East Asia.
â˘By demanding the control of some ports in Madagascar, seen as an infringement on the German sphere of operations and the dividing line set at 70th degrees east longitude, the Nipponese have weakened the prestige and legitimacy of the German puppet French State of Philippe Petain, thus increasing the probability of further betrayal of French overseas colonies, that could be incited to defect to the Free France of De Gaulles.
â˘By defeating, humiliating and brutalising ethnic Europeans in East Asia, civilian and military alike, such as sex slavery, the infamous death march or worse the Unit 731 biomedical experiments, the Nipponese have shattered the myth of the invincible superior Aryan master race, thus totally discrediting the Hitlerite ideologyâs core concept.
As for the Nipponese, reasons also abounds to backstab the Axis when the situation permits.
List of the most significant historical events potentially seen as a casus belli by Tojo against the Axis:
â˘By helping the Republic of China with arms export and military advisors, Germany has undermined the Nipponese military conquest of China.
â˘By signing the 1939 MolotovâRibbentrop Non-Aggression Pact, while the Soviet army was defeating the Nipponese military in Manchuria along the Mongolian border, Hitler has betrayed the Anti-Comintern Pact signed on November 25, 1936, and that was aimed at the Soviet Union.
â˘By invading the USSR in June 1941 with Operation Barbarossa, again without notice, Germany has betrayed the Nipponese, that had just signed two months earlier their own JapaneseâSoviet Non-aggression Pact, on 13th April 1941.
â˘By relinquishing on Nipponese demands for controlling ports in Madagascar, the Germans have not helped the Nipponese war effort in the Indian Ocean.
2.1.2.5. Occupation policy
Whether or not the Nipponese would decide to simply annex a conquered nation or instead create a puppet state can result in a tremendous difference in the short run on the outcome of the war.
Due to the limited core Nipponeseâs manpower, as compared to the world most populated powers such as China, the Soviet Union, and the U.S., and after extensive testing, the best results were obtained when we created at least one, possibly two fully independent allied states, as great powers, able to sustain on their own, a brutal campaign on the western front, fighting at the same time both the Comintern, Axis and Allies, thus relieving the Nipponese military that should primarily focus all its naval assets on the Pacific Oceanâs front against the U.S. fleet.
Creating smaller entities would simply be a waste of human, military and industrial capacities.
Culture, ethnicity and religion is of great importance in deciding where to create these great powers, and their territorial extend.
Although these factors were not modelized in the base simulation program, nonetheless the occupation policies have been enacted according to the cultural, ethnic and religious map of the real world.
â˘The first one will be created on Soviet conquered lands. The ethnicity should be mainly Mongol-centered.
Koreans, Manchurians and all the other ethnic groups living in Northern China with higher body mass to body surface ratio, and therefore with better resistance to extreme cold attrition, would replace the destroyed ethnic Europeans.
Nipponese should only be present as advisors in the administrative, economic, industrial, educational, and other top military positions.
This great military power would constitute an effective equivalent of a modern time greater Mongol Khanate (Mengkukuo).
â˘The second one is centered around a core of Buddhists populations of South East Asia, and covers mainly French Indochina (Laos, Cambodia), British Burma, British Malaya, and even most of the British India.
Therefore constituting an effective equivalent of a modern greater Rattanakosin Empire.
Nipponese should only be present as advisors in the administrative, economic, industrial, educational, and other top military positions.
The rest of South East Asia (Philippines, Dutch East Indies, British Malaya, Australia, New Zealand, New Caledonia) would be administered directly by the Nipponese military occupation authorities.
Some minor islands of the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean and South East Asia could be released as puppet states with the lowest level of autonomy.
For all other conquered nations, direct administration by the Nipponese Army is applied by default. This covers the Middle East and Africa.
2.1.2.6. The Fate Of The Ethnic Europeans
Ethnic policies i.e. transfer of populations, while more than minor details during the WWII, have been occulted in the base simulation program.
Some were simply obliterated such a the Volga Germans, the Crimean Tatars or the Gyps|es, while replacement policies were carried out in Koenigsberg and elsewhere.
But this can be simulated somewhat with the political decisions. Meaning, there will be no puppet state released on conquered land populated by ethnic Europeans, only transfer of populations from East Asia.
As for the Nipponese, the Kantokuen plan for operation in the Soviet Union, discloses the massive use of biochemical weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and the harshest occupation policy, that parallels the Germanâs Generalplan Ost and Hungerplan. |1||2|
Racism indisputably played a central role during WWII. The Nipponese fascism was deeply racist considering the Nipponese as the Master race, with its Emperor of divine origin.
This doctrine is probably rooted in the 19th century political philosophy âSonnĹ jĹiâ (ĺ°çć夡, Revere the Emperor, expel the barbarians), and a political slogan in the 1850s and 1860s in the movement to overthrow the Tokugawa shogunate during the Bakumatsu period. 12 Also influenced by the unipolar world as envisaged in the âWorld Final Race Theoryâ (Final War Theory: Sekai saishĹŤ senron, ä¸çćçľćŚčŤ). |1||2|
âAn Investigation of Global Policy with the Yamato Race as Nucleusâ (大ĺć°ćăä¸ć ¸ă¨ăăä¸çćżçăŽć¤č¨) was a secret Nipponese government report created by the Ministry of Health and Welfareâs Population Problems Research Center, and completed on July 1, 1943. |1||2|
The document states that the Nipponese, the Yamato Race, were superior to all other races, the exploitation of other countries was a policy separate from the war.
Another principle of Nipponese doctrine was HakkĹ ichiu (ĺ Ťç´ä¸ĺŽ: all the world under one roof), meaning that the imperial rule had been divinely ordained to expand until it united the entire world, and was further propelled by preparations for celebrating the 2600th anniversary of the legendary first emperor Jimmuâs ascension, which fell in the year 1940 according to the traditional chronology. |1||2|
As the war went on, the characterization of the fighting became a âholy warâ (čćŚ: seisen).
Therefore the physical survival of all ethnic Europeans would have been the most unlikely, not only in Asia but also in all the Old World and then in the New World.
This is even more thinkable if the war between the Axis and GEACS were to be started as a surprise backstabbing move by Hitler.
The question is no longer about what if, but about how did it happened?.
The British Cecil Frank Powell was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1950.
Cecil Powell made improvements to this technique in order to study radiation and nuclear reactions. In 1947 he discovered that incident cosmic ray particles could react with atomic nuclei in the emulsion, creating other, short-lived particles. These particles turned out to be pi-mesons, the particles proposed by Yukawa as mediating the strong force binding protons and neutrons in nuclei. |1||2|
In his conclusion at the conference in July 1953 held at Bagneres, near the Pic-du-Midi laboratory, Cecil Powell said, âWe have been invaded ⌠the accelerators are here.â |1||2|
. He was a mathematician specialized in topology. In the end of 1980s, when the Soviet Union was collapsing, he published a paper on some incongruencies between âletopisâ (chronicles) and astronomical events. And he proposed his alternative version of these historical events. I think he made it out of fun, a bored intellectual, you know⌠But somehow his scribbles attracted a fair degree of public attention during this turbulent time. I guess Anatoly realized that he could make lots of dough, as an academic mathematician he could not make that much in the harsh realities of postsoviet 1990s Russia. He started to create his own lore, equal to Tolkienâs by its dimensions, using some pseudomathematics and general bullshitting techniques. In his lore, he created an alternative version of history with the Great Tartaria and nuclear war in 1812 during Napoleonâs invasion of Russia. Napoleon was the same person as Atilla and Gengis Khan. I donât know the details, but something like this⌠He published many books and has millions of followers in Russia, needless to say that he made millions of USA dollars out of them. Even some Yaroslavl city government official decided to build a museum dedicated to Fomenkoâs lore, I think Yaroslavl was the capital of the Great Tartaria, or something like this⌠Needless to say that academic historians are a part of the Great Conspiracy to hide the True History 
