The arms deal is qualified by the fact that China has increased military spending by staggering amounts.
Given that the recent history of China has been obese with wars and more battles with its neighbors, I think its time to pay heed to its warnings.
A wise person stands back defensively when a dog, with a history of violence, growls and shows its teeth.
Why are we displaying our necks?
What are you on about. Singapore was never threatened with invasion by China. It also has never been a part of China and has nothing to do with the ROC PRC USA.
Singapore opted out of joining the Malaysian federation as it did not see it being part of that federation would have been beneficial to it’s people.
Singapore had the choices of being an independent state or being part of Malaysia.
Are you saying that the PRC would let Taiwan decide it’s own destiny? :loco: :loco:
Singapore opted out of joining the Malaysian federation as it did not see it being part of that federation would have been beneficial to it’s people.
Slightly off topic, but actually, back then Singapore was “forced out” Malaysian, it didn’t want to be indepedent. It realized that how hard it is for country of its size to survive (well, I guess it turned out pretty good). It was a result of a general anti Chinese immigrants (who are minority, but economical well off than majority) sentiment over there back then (or still is, especially in Indonesia).
The crux of the matter is that the purchasing of the new weapons systems will show the American public that Taiwan is willing to defend itself as best it can (although the weapons systems aren’t enough, they need to overhaul and reform their command structure, infrastructure, logistics, and shore up other defenses as well), which would make it easier for the US to justify intervening militarily in the event that a cross-strait conflict broke out.
If Taiwan does NOT upgrade its defenses, whether or not the US chooses to intervene or not is a moot point, as the PRC would crush Taiwan’s defenses before the US could even arrive, that’s why Taiwan needs to increase its military spending and get serious about military reform, not to be able to defeat the PLA, but to buy the US (and possibly Japan) enough time to join the fight before it’s too late.
Taiwan seriously fuc**d up by purchasing those Lafayette-class frigates before (under LTH’s KMT) … now it has the chance to really boost its defenses both through the purchase of arms from the US and various other recommendations that the US has made to Taiwan to boost its defensive capabilities … but they’ve dropped the ball. The blame for the weapons package rests solely on the pan-blue camp, but the other reforms mentioned above can be carried out by the current administration if they would get their act together and instead of pushing only for the special arms procurement budget, they could at the same time restructure, reorganize, reform and strengthen what they already have in place.
I’m of the opinion this entire debate, while important from a tactical point of view, is relatively meaningless from a strategic one.
Short of a nuclear device on Taiwan (which would trigger the Chinese equivalent of the Cuban Missile Crisis), Taiwan will eventually be dramatically out-classed by the mainland Chinese military. Boosting defense spending to 10% of Taiwanese GDP will buy it perhaps 5-10 extra years of rough parity… but what then? Is it really going to matter 50 years from now when most Chinese provinces will have a larger economy than that of Taiwan?
[quote=“cctang”]I’m of the opinion this entire debate, while important from a tactical point of view, is relatively meaningless from a strategic one.
Short of a nuclear device on Taiwan (which would trigger the Chinese equivalent of the Cuban Missile Crisis), Taiwan will eventually be dramatically out-classed by the mainland Chinese military. Boosting defense spending to 10% of Taiwanese GDP will buy it perhaps 5-10 extra years of rough parity… but what then? Is it really going to matter 50 years from now when most Chinese provinces will have a larger economy than that of Taiwan?[/quote]
Don’t be selfish, China is Taiwan’s equivalent of a Cuban Missile Crisis. China is the one that has more than once threatened to nuke Taiwan.
ShrimpCracker,
Grow up. This isn’t 8th grade, nor is this a political campaign. There’s nothing to be gained from trading sound-bites and snippy come-backs. You’re not winning any fans, and you’re just wasting everyone’s time. If you want to practice your smart-ass comments, I’m sure there are plenty of kiddie AzNs on your site that’ll accomodate you.
My comment and comparison was a serious one. The Cuban Missile Crisis came about because Kennedy made it clear that the United States absolutely could not tolerate the existence of nuclear weapons on the island of Cuba. Kennedy made it clear that a delivery of such nuclear weapons was equivalent to an overt act of war, and that a nuclear response was possible.
The same is just as true in Taiwan. The United States can (and will) continue to deliver conventional weapons to Taiwan without anything from Beijing but political protests. The second the United States delivers a nuclear weapon to Taiwan is the second the next world war begins.
Come back if you have some serious and interesting to say.
Maybe you should consider putting him on ignore instead of wasting time responding to his soundbites 
Something “serious and interesting to say”? Such as this, perhaps…
Methinks some people on this board are living in an elaborate fantasy world. If someone can explain how fifty years of sustainable development can exist in most Chinese provinces in the absence of clean drinking water I will be thoroughly impressed.
No China is still a third-world country, no one is really trying to deny it.
However, the country is making strides to improve the overall quality of life and people now are still able to attain a standard of living that was unheard of when China was still running on a command economy.
[quote=“zhujianlun”]
Methinks some people on this board are living in an elaborate fantasy world. If someone can explain how fifty years of sustainable development can exist in most Chinese provinces in the absence of clean drinking water I will be thoroughly impressed.[/quote]
The “absence” of clean drinking water? Are we perhaps exaggerating events just a tad? But I don’t know, perhaps you’re collaborating with Gordon Chang on his next book (“The Coming, Coming Collapse of China… seriously this time!”) and you have access to facts the rest of us don’t.
But I wouldn’t want to turn down this opportunity to impress you.
Goldman Sachs, at least, live in my fantasy world. Please do to refer to their oft-quoted research white paper Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050. Their prediction is that the Chinese economy, in the year 2050, will be 41 times the size it was in the year 2000 (page 9 of their release; all numbers in US dollar terms).
Taiwan’s economy wasn’t significant enough to be part of their predictions, but perhaps you’ll agree that the Japanese economy represents a reasonable analogue. (And in my opinion, a GENEROUS analogue… an “independent” Taiwan’s economic growth over the next 45 years will probably lag that of Japan’s… at least you can catch a flight from Tokyo to Shanghai). Japan’s economy is projected to grow by 1.6 times in the 50 years from 2000 - 2050. With Japanese growth as our guide, and Taiwan’s GDP in 2000 ($386 billion)… we can guesstimate Taiwan’s GDP in 2050 at $617.6 billion.
How will that stack up against individual Chinese provinces? I’ll just do a little reverse math by dividing Taiwan’s 2050 GDP of $617.6 billion by 41, to get an adjusted value of $15 billion. That is to say: Taiwan’s 2050 GDP will be equal to a Chinese province who’s 2000 GDP is $15 billion. With me so far?
So, based on this methodology, here are all the Chinese provinces that would have a LOWER (total) GDP than Taiwan in year 2050:
That means Taiwan would rank lower than 23 of 31 provinces/municipalities. How’s fantasy land looking to you, right now?
There are tons of inherent assumptions in this calculation, obviously. For one thing, if current trends are any indicator, it’s unfair to assume that development will be anywhere close to uniform across all of China. The Western provinces will probably grow less than that 41x factor… while the eastern provinces could very well grow more. And I’m expecting to get all of the: [standard retorts]Chinese statistics blahblah; greedy blind international investors blahblah; Communist systems doomed blahblah; democracy + soft power + Hello Kitty dominates all blahblah[/standard retorts].
But really, we’d be arguing number angels on the head of a pin. I don’t really want to venture a guess whether Taiwan’s economy will be larger than that of Inner Mongolia or Yunnan in the year 2050. But, I’ll certainly say that based on current trends, it seems indisputable that Taiwan will be far, far behind the leading pack: Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Beijing, Hebei, Shandong, Anhui, Henan, Liaoning, etc…
However you spin it or dice it, those of us who’re in touch with what you call “fantasy” and what I call “the facts” understand that Taiwan’s headed for economic irrelevancy on an absolute GDP scale. Let’s return to a discussion about the strategic implications of this change.
It looks as though the KMT may consider the weapons procurement package if it is included in the regular annual budget, with the total annual defense spending for Taiwan being increased to 3% of the GDP (as opposed to the previous 2.4%, I believe) … it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.
However, it seems like they’re only willing to consider the eight submarines and the P3C Orion ASW aircraft, as they say that the PAC3 Patriot missle batteries were “voted down” (not totally accurate) by the “defensive referendum” held along with the presidential election.
I hope they get their act together and pass the budget for these weapons systems, and also start taking the advice of the US to upgrade their logistics, communications, military infrastructure, and internal organization as well … having modern weapons is not enough … it’s the less “flashy” aspects of a military machine that makes it run, and those are vital areas when it would come down to a war with China. Superior logistics, communications, electronic warfare capabilities, etc. could make a world of difference, and perhaps give the US enough time to intervene.
Bwha ha ha ha!!!
And then the US will turn round and complain that Taiwan is building its own subs. 
If it is so difficult to find someone to build the diesel subs, just sell som nuclear subs. They can probably be delivered much faster…
[quote=“Dangermouse”][quote=“Comrade Stalin”]Damn right. They’ve been living off the USA’s aid and military since WWII. Time to grow up and pay back all those aid loans, kiddies. Build your own subs…or do without.[/quote]Bwha ha ha ha!!!
And then the US will turn round and complain that Taiwan is building its own subs. 
[/quote]DM -
Highly doubtful that this would arouse any US ire; US manufacturers would probably be most of the sourcing for system components.
But seriously, 2 questions:
I think those 2 Q’s sum up the likelyhood of this ever happening.
Now if I can just get them interested in a submarine company I rep for…10% of …
The way they’ve twiddled their thumbs on the weapons procurement package, by the time those subs ever get completed (at least 10 years from the time the budget is passed and the deal is signed), they probably won’t be of any use anymore … meaning unification would have already occured, or China’s navy would already be so far superior that their combat efficacy wouldn’t be much better than what they have now.
I was talking with a group of Taiwanese the other night at a X-mas party, all of whom had served their time in the military, and they were all in agreement that no matter how many high-tech, flashy weapons they buy, they won’t do any good, because what they already do have they can’t use and/or can’t maintain properly. I still agree that the weapons are a necessity (at the very least as a deterrent), but as I said before, they need to re-focus their efforts on reforming the internal operations of the military establishment, upgrade command, control, logistics, electronic warfare, etc. Plus, they need to switch from a conscription to a professional army, and radically improve their training … their conscripts now can barely shoot a rifle, let alone fight in an intense, modern battle against an aggressive and well-equipped enemy. The ROC military is still using outdated doctrines and squabbling over politics instead of taking serious steps to reform their military capabilities. The unfortunate thing is, I don’t see this changing any time soon.
LBTW -
An absolutely spot-on assessment.
This is the current view of the Taiwanese military situation/predicament.
:bravo: :bravo: :bravo:
Good luck
What I’m talking about really is the way the US treated Europe in the last 20-30 years where it largely discouraged arms build up and the development of new military technologies that would rival their own (This also applied to some extent to Canada).
However, the US is now having a moan and groan about Europe and many other countries not having good enough defence capabilities. The US is partly to balme for the situation it finds itself in today.
Ignore me. I was just taking the opportunity to snipe. 
So, here I see all the negatives of both sides of the issue. It seems hopeless.
If Taiwan buys the weapons, you’re right, they probably don’t really have the infrastructure to maintain them properly.
Got any better suggestions then?!? How about something positive, or a suggestion on what we should be doing?
Its easy to shoot anything down, its hard to create something.
Yes, junk the subs, and buy fighter aircraft. Another 300 fighters + training, copious spare parts and ammo, would be enough to keep the Chinese at bay for another couple of decades.
Michael