Brexit

As far as home ownership goes, it depends how much of a tantrum Brussels throws, and how many laws they draw up to try and punish the UK. They will try, but it will blow up in their face, as the world will see how petty and vindictive they are.

Popular sentiment could also swing the other way, as the Brexit could spark a 2-5 year wave of referendums across Europe.

Withdrawing from the EU is like negotiating a divorce with 22 wives at the same time.

Finley, AFAIC it wasn’t a boring speech. Boris ditched his bumbling toff persona, left out the jokes, and talked about the hard numbers and facts. He laid waste to the economic argument, and showed how insidious EU incrementalism has been this last half century.

:roflmao:

[quote=“Gain”][quote=“OrangeOrganics”]
Not true, many hate the EU in France.thelocal.fr/20160330/france- … han-the-uk

Of course Germany are doing well, the EU has gifted them a cheap currency to benefit their exports.[/quote]
I said young people. The middle-aged and older population are usually more Euro-skeptic as they tend to blame all their problems on the easiest target, aka the Union.

The arguments of how the UK would just be like Norway upon Brexit are all extremely simple-minded.

Norway is a part of the European single market, it follows almost all the EU rules and also pays the EU a ton of money annually. The only reason why they did not join the EU is that they wanted to keep their fishing rights, which is subjected to the Common Fisheries Policies of the EU and the EU’s exclusive economic zone. By bypassing the EU, Norway and Iceland retain their fishing rights, but they do comply with pretty much everything else. It is the same deal with Switzerland. If they don’t, then there will be negative consequences coming from the side of the EU. For example, after the Swiss referendum on limitation of access of EU immigrants, the EU suspended Switzerland’s membership on the Erasmus programme, which is why there are so few Swiss exchange students in other European countries as the free grant was cancelled.

By leaving the European Union, the UK would also leave the single market (well Cameron himself said so), which essentially puts the UK in the same position as any other non-EU states, and all the tariffs will come back.

The background of this is WTO’s MFN (most favoured nation) principle. All the WTO member states agreed to apply a minimal standard on reducing tariffs and trade barriers so that the flow of trade would be a lot smoother back in the days, and the MFN principle was come up with in order to prevent discrimination, and it requires all member states to treat all nations equally. However, exceptions are allowed, which is called preferential trade agreement, the European single market is one of them. Other examples include North American Free Trade Agreement, Southern Common Market, ASEAN, and all the FTAs.

So if the UK leaves the EU, it would pull out from this preferential trade agreement, then it would have to impose all the tariffs on the imported goods and services from the EU, and vice versa (which means the EU would have to impose all the tariffs on the imported goods and services from the UK).If both the UK and the EU decide that they will eliminate the tariffs between them, they will have to do the same to all other countries due to the MFN principle, including manufacturing power houses like America, Japan, Korea, China etc.

The EU takes up about half of the UK’s trade, if the UK leaves… well I guess the result is pretty evident. The UK is not really a manufacturing power like Germany is, the brightest sector is easily its finance, and that is largely based on its status as the gateway to the largest and richest single market in the world. If the UK leaves that market, it loses that gateway status, then it’d not be a stretch to say that the whole thing would go down in the toilet.

Sure, it wouldn’t be easy on the EU but they could manage as there are 27 other member states, and quite a number of them are pretty healthy and competitive economically, however, it would be absolutely catastrophic for the British economy.

And that’s just the economic part of the reasoning of why the UK should remain.[/quote]

Are you British? Have you lived in the UK?

You are talking in generalist terms that mean little to the majority of people. The country is unfair. Everything you are talking about affects the metropolitan elites and the haves. People in the North feel that their party was stolen from them by the the Blairites and now they are reacting.

I would rather have a poorer, fairer country, than a richer one where half the population are written off as collateral damage.

I would prefer a “poorer, fairer” country too. But there is no real evidence that the UK will be poorer if we Exit. What about the 10billion pounds that stays in the economy each year once we leave? Also, no matter what Germany + Strasbourg does, our other trading partners like France, Spain, Central Europe etc will not want to put punitive tariffs on bilateral trade, because it will hurt them as much as it hurts us.

We can have free trade and a Schengen agreement without all the other nonsense.

The media are trying to play people off against each other.

But for now, let us listen to chariots of fire…

youtube.com/watch?v=lOFHVXE6yWs

And here’s a victory song for our working class readers:

youtube.com/watch?v=KaBdajHOsSM

[quote=“HenHaoChi”]I would prefer a “poorer, fairer” country too. But there is no real evidence that the UK will be poorer if we Exit. What about the 10billion pounds that stays in the economy each year once we leave? Also, no matter what Germany + Strasbourg does, our other trading partners like France, Spain, Central Europe etc will not want to put punitive tariffs on bilateral trade, because it will hurt them as much as it hurts us.

We can have free trade and a Schengen agreement without all the other nonsense.

The media are trying to play people off against each other.

But for now, let us listen to chariots of fire…

youtube.com/watch?v=lOFHVXE6yWs

And here’s a victory song for our working class readers:

youtube.com/watch?v=KaBdajHOsSM[/quote]

True, I agree. Was talking about all the Neo-Liberal economic arguments put forward.

I absolutely haaaaatttted the attitude of the Guardian and the Metropolitan Left during this referendum and in recent years. Shame on you, shame on you. Writing off downtrodden people as racists and refusing to even listen, with your smug, sneering, we know best attitudes. That is what swayed it most for me. I see no future for a country led by these people.

[quote=“OrangeOrganics”][quote=“HenHaoChi”]I would prefer a “poorer, fairer” country too. But there is no real evidence that the UK will be poorer if we Exit. What about the 10billion pounds that stays in the economy each year once we leave? Also, no matter what Germany + Strasbourg does, our other trading partners like France, Spain, Central Europe etc will not want to put punitive tariffs on bilateral trade, because it will hurt them as much as it hurts us.

We can have free trade and a Schengen agreement without all the other nonsense.

The media are trying to play people off against each other.

But for now, let us listen to chariots of fire…

youtube.com/watch?v=lOFHVXE6yWs

And here’s a victory song for our working class readers:

youtube.com/watch?v=KaBdajHOsSM[/quote]

True, I agree. Was talking about all the Neo-Liberal economic arguments put forward.

I absolutely haaaaatttted the attitude of the Guardian and the Metropolitan Left during this referendum and in recent years. Shame on you, shame on you. Writing off downtrodden people as racists and refusing to even listen, with your smug, sneering, we know best attitudes. That is what swayed it most for me. I see no future for a country led by these people.[/quote]

Yeah, it makes me really angry. My Facebook feed is a shitshow of Bulgarians, Americans, New Zealanders, saying the rudest, dumbest shit I’ve seen in a long time: they don’t understand just how class-ist (yeah, it’s a word … :unamused: ) it comes across as. They simply don’t understand the social and political context. I’m staying off it so I don’t tell my boss to fuck off. :laughing:

I think the results show that in England, it’s an urban vs suburban and rural divide. If it were wholly about immigration, I would expect places like Manchester with high, ‘visible’ immigration to come out as ‘Leave’, but that hasn’t happened, with Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds, Cardiff, and most of London voting ‘Remain’. Birmingham, dunno. I think it’s a hitback at lack of representation in mainstream politics, where English voters in particular can only choose between Guardian-readers or the Bullingdon clubbers.

It’s no accident that former mining communities in England and Wales are staunch ‘Leave’-ers.

Fuck the Emily Thornberrys and the Guardianistas. You did this. The kind of subgenii who come up with this kind of thing: theguardian.com/cities/the- … generation

fwiw, I’m a Remain-er, and so was my town. But I get it.

[quote=“Ermintrude”][quote=“OrangeOrganics”][quote=“HenHaoChi”]I would prefer a “poorer, fairer” country too. But there is no real evidence that the UK will be poorer if we Exit. What about the 10billion pounds that stays in the economy each year once we leave? Also, no matter what Germany + Strasbourg does, our other trading partners like France, Spain, Central Europe etc will not want to put punitive tariffs on bilateral trade, because it will hurt them as much as it hurts us.

We can have free trade and a Schengen agreement without all the other nonsense.

The media are trying to play people off against each other.

But for now, let us listen to chariots of fire…

youtube.com/watch?v=lOFHVXE6yWs

And here’s a victory song for our working class readers:

youtube.com/watch?v=KaBdajHOsSM[/quote]

True, I agree. Was talking about all the Neo-Liberal economic arguments put forward.

I absolutely haaaaatttted the attitude of the Guardian and the Metropolitan Left during this referendum and in recent years. Shame on you, shame on you. Writing off downtrodden people as racists and refusing to even listen, with your smug, sneering, we know best attitudes. That is what swayed it most for me. I see no future for a country led by these people.[/quote]

Yeah, it makes me really angry. My Facebook feed is a shitshow of Bulgarians, Americans, New Zealanders, saying the rudest, dumbest shit I’ve seen in a long time: they don’t understand just how class-ist (yeah, it’s a word … :unamused: ) it comes across as. They simply don’t understand the social and political context. I’m staying off it so I don’t tell my boss to fuck off. :laughing:

I think the results show that in England, it’s an urban vs suburban and rural divide. If it were wholly about immigration, I would expect places like Manchester with high, ‘visible’ immigration to come out as ‘Leave’, but that hasn’t happened, with Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds, Cardiff, and most of London voting ‘Remain’. Birmingham, dunno. I think it’s a hitback at lack of representation in mainstream politics, where English voters in particular can only choose between Guardian-readers or the Bullingdon clubbers.

It’s no accident that former mining communities in England and Wales are staunch ‘Leave’-ers.

Fuck the Emily Thornberrys and the Guardianistas. You did this. The kind of subgenii who come up with this kind of thing: theguardian.com/cities/the- … generation

fwiw, I’m a Remain-er, and so was my town. But I get it.[/quote]

Emily Thornberry actually said that the results shows that British people are sick of Camerons austerity policies. I hear Iraq is looking for a new Minister of Information, someone should put her name forward.

Im educated and would fit in a Remain demigraphic, but the whole Remain campaign stunk.

Sheffield and Birmingham both voted leave.

Haha. She’s an idiot.

The general election will be interesting. Another Conservative term, but surely not a Gove and Johnson thing? Although they probably see this result as a mandate to stand, arrogant that they are.

It’s the whole ‘I’m educated and …’ not-particualrly-sub-text. The assertion that this population are uneducated, racists fuckheads who don’t understand the difficult stuff.

If they do another Scotland Independence referendum after Brexit, would they be more inclined to leave the UK?

Nasty campaign with that $$@& Farage right in the middle of it.
Northern Ireland will have to put up some kind of border now with the republic and there will be calls for a United ireland referendum. Unionists perceived as trying to put a wedge between us by nationalists.
Now we are probably going to get a flood of investment into Ireland but also loads more Immigrants too.
Pain in the arse all round with all the political, business and freedom of movement uncertainty.

[quote=“headhonchoII”]
Northern Ireland will have to put up some kind of border now with the republic and there will be calls for a United ireland referendum. [/quote]

Already happened. Sinn Fein calls for referendum on united Ireland

I just wonder whether most of those who are posting on the anger against the “elites” in EU or urban areas understand that it is the same impetus behind Donald Trump. Keep that in mind as we enter our election cycle.

We don’t have much going for us Merican voters. The biggoted , big headed, super egoist Trump or the Clintoness who every one seems to hate.

But i say between the two , Clinton is the lesser evil. Still some of my honky friends threaten the end of our friendship if I vote HIlary. I may just do that to spite them.

But anyways I wont vote for Trump.

I would rather name my cat as Prez (and me as vice prez) then the trumpet.

Already posted something about the support the Trump supporters were lending to the Brexit, reddit.com/r/the_donald has been nothing but Brexit for days, reddit/r/HillaryClinton crickets, no interest in the subject at all.

There is actually a mountain of evidence showing that, but people voted with their hearts and ignored it. Not necessarily a bad thing, but shoot first ask questions later doesn’t often work out. They would have been better off leaving with an actual detailed economic plan in place first.

It will take a very strong and focused leadership in the next few years to bridge the obvious financial gap this is going to leave, and things will likely get worse before they get better. It can be done, but I for one have zero confidence in the leaders that were pushing for this.

S&P 500 futures were down as much as 5.68%. This might get ugly !

There is actually a mountain of evidence showing that, but people voted with their hearts and ignored it. Not necessarily a bad thing, but shoot first ask questions later doesn’t often work out. They would have been better off leaving with an actual detailed economic plan in place first.

It will take a very strong and focused leadership in the next few years to bridge the obvious financial gap this is going to leave, and things will likely get worse before they get better. It can be done, but I for one have zero confidence in the leaders that were pushing for this.

S&P 500 futures were down as much as 5.68%. This might get ugly ![/quote]

It will all be fine. Divorces are always painful, emotionally and financially. Five years later you get to buy a Harley Davidson and start smoking weed/ getting laid again. All good.

It’s nothing like a divorce it’s a referendum on EU membership which affects political, economic and freedom of movement rights. Scotland may split from Union, northern Irish are going to be in a worse shit state and businesses, farmers and migrants (both from and to Britain)are going to be worried today about where this all ends up.

With that little addition, I agree. As always, it’s going to be those in the lower end that will feel the brunt of the economic loss the most. The same people who some here say don’t give a fuck about 2% GDP, they will. They may not care and many not even understand why it happened, but unfortunately they’ll feel it.

Cameron to make a statement soon, no celebratory hog roast, poor guy…

Cameron says he will be gone in three months.