Brexit


#1761

The UK is legit shameful for a first world democracy.


#1762

I will go with that too, and continuing from those steps Larry David tells me that season arch will conclude with a second referendum where the public again vote for a Brexit that the politicians cannot deliver with the final crescendo scene being when a hamster runs up Cameron backside. Then the story will be continued in season nine in September. :slight_smile:


#1763


#1764

Yes, the numbers seem to have shifted to those who would remain as the public looses faith a deal can be made that works for the UK.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/20/polls-stay-eu-yougov-brexit-peoples-vote

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-uk-poll-support-for-staying-in-eu-at-highest-level-since-referendum/

I agree, the only question for me is do they ask the EU for a delay the first time round to hold a referendum, Or ask the EU for more time because they a screwed, get told no, hold another vote on the EU deal, loose that too and then go back to the EU with virtually no time left asking to delay to hold a referendum.

Then it gets put to the public, hard Brexit or stay in the EU. The public will go with the later.


#1765

What makes people think that there would be a yes vote on the 14th?

Let’s say there will be a yes vote on art. 50 extension, what happens when any of the EU27 doesn’t go on board?


#1766

#1767

A delay would be needed if the UK wanted to hold a referendum. So if this is going to be the route the UK goes, eventually at some point they will need to ask for a delay.

If the EU is just asked for more time, because UK is in trouble. I think it will be rejected. If the UK asks for a delay to hold a referendum and that is rejected. Then the UK is out of EU, either they take the deal, or go the hard Brexit route.


#1768

I know that, but it doesn’t seem like May has a majority on the 14th at all.

If the UK asks for a delay to hold a referendum, it most likely wouldn’t be rejected. But still, is there even a majority in favour of a second referendum in the House?


#1769

The question on the 14th is a different question. Labour almost totally voted against May’s Brexit deal, but more time is something they want as Jeremy Corbyn is hoping for another general election. It’s a massive game of chicken going on, both with the EU vs the UK and the Conservatives vs Labour.


#1770

We should have had Gain in charge of negotiations. I reckon the UK would be in control of continental Europe by now.


#1771

:roll:


#1772

That was honestly an attempt at a compliment.


#1773

That shows a few common errors in British establishment thiniking.

The EU is a club , you don’t get to control the other members.

The main impediment to brexit is the Irish backstop, which is not on mainland Europe. ThAt NI and Ireland weren’t considered as important in the brexit referendum was a massive miscalculation.


#1774

Sadly, for me at least, I’m not British establishment. If I were I wouldn’t be living in Taiwan.

I understand that there are almost insurmountable issues regarding Northern Ireland.

Many things weren’t taken into consideration when the referendum was held.


#1775

that indeed makes more sense. hopefully that happens. not sure what labour want though, corbyn seems to think he could get a better deal… because he thinks he is charming or something?


#1776

Corbyn is hoping this might force a general election.


#1777

it would all be so much easier if UK gave up on NI and allowed them to be absorbed by Eire. Which is essentially what the backstop would be.

except that May only rules because of the few ugly Protestants in her coalition.


#1778

Under international law, Britain would be within its rights to invade and annex Ireland, Belgium, etc. for refusing free trade (without a bunch of socialist preconditions, at any rate). May needs to start thinking outside the box.

Hmm, what if Scotland stayed in the EU, and England left. Would that satisfy the Northern Irish / EU mandarins?


#1779

So to recap, they have voted Mays Brexit deal down twice. yesterday they voted not to leave without a deal. May is saying there is no other deal.

So it looks like they are going to vote today on asking the EU for more time. If they are going to go to the EU to ask for more time so they can renegotiate the deal, I don’t think anyone needs a crystal ball to guess what their reply will be.


#1780

Only one EU nation needs to veto any extension and it’s no deal crash out. I could see Spain vetoing it over Gibraltar. Or maybe one of the anti-EU governments.