You’re probably correct, a definitely hope so!
I also hope for a continuation of the “bluffing” part, as this has been part of Beijing’s playbook since 1949.
Yet also: when official channels in the PRC speak of “eliminating” and “wiping out” people in Taiwan, we need to take them at their word—in much the same way that Putin’s constant refrain of claiming Ukraine is not a nation and Ukrainians are not a people should have absolutely been heeded. He meant it, and so does Beijing.
Guy
I don’t think it should be shrugged off, and I don’t believe it is. At the same time, I’m still not packing my bags!
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Resolve the conflicts with peaceful negotiations. That man sounded sane back in 2021.
The same man in 2022
An article published on Sunday commemorating Russia Day in the Russian newspaper Izvestia, seemingly written by Kiriyenko, first deputy chief of staff to Russian President Vladimir Putin, said that “the Chinese Taiwan problem is not a negotiable issue.”
Drawing a comparison between the Russia-Ukraine war to China’s claims over Taiwan, as well as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s claims over islands in the Mediterranean Sea, the article expressed support for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) Global Security Initiative, saying the West should “stop interfering with the internal affairs of other peoples and governments.”
Putin is trying to force Turkey and China to aid him Ukraine, otherwise Russian won’t back them when they invade the islands they claimed.
Yup that’s how Taiwanese people pronounce 風
August 17, 1982
(1) In the Joint Communique on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations on January 1, 1979, issued by the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the People’s Republic of China, the United States of America recognized the Government of the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal Government of China, and it acknowledged the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China.
Latest version
The latest version of the fact sheet, published on May 28, states that “we do not support Taiwan independence,” a phrase which had been included in the fact sheet since at least 2018 before it was removed from the previous version on May 5.
“We oppose any unilateral changes to the status quo from either side; we do not support Taiwan independence; and we expect cross-Strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means,” the fact sheet read.
However, the statement that “the U.S. recognized the government of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the sole legal government of China and acknowledged the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China,” which was also removed on May 5, was not added back to the latest update.
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Read carefully. Whose position is referred to in that quote?
Is it the U.S. position? or is it the Chinese position?
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Upon a search, you and I have been through this in Nov 2020 on this Forumosa(International Politics).
By the way I attach below Zivotofsky vs Clinton(Kerry), Opinion of the Supreme Court reads
“the President acknowledged the Chinese position that. …, but he did not accept that claim.”
See page 24-25 in the following pdf. Or use Ctrl-F to search using the keyword Taiwan.
Do you know what ‘acknowledged’ means?
SECRETARY POMPEO: Well, Hugh, remember, when we talk about – it’s always important to get the language right. Taiwan has not been a part of China, and that was recognized with the work that the Reagan administration did to lay out the policies that the United States has adhered to now for three and a half decades, and done so under both administrations.
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This “strategic ambiguity” thing is more like “strategic obfuscation” to me…
I still think we’re good for at least 5 years from now barring ùnforeseen changes to the status quo, but this is a step in the wrong direction
China launches the Fujian, its largest and most advanced aircraft carrier
They’re still decades behind the US, but they don’t need to be peers to harass Taiwan
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The new coral reef is here!
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Ugh, this thread always gives me agita.
Quite a few of my Chinese friends with political connections or know how about foreign Chinese investments are telling me they are really afraid China may attack much sooner than most people thought (that would be only once they have more or less world dominance - so in 10 years or so).
Seems Chinese investment vehicles are moving out funds from Europe and US or many cutting back on future investments. As long as China was investing a lot of money in Europe and US it was sure that they will not attack.
Western companies cutting back in China with chinese investors retreating from US/Europe - that will increase the chance of a war heavily. And with the dependance on chips from the rest of the world - I am sure - if China attacks we have world war 3, everyone will lose. But yeah I kinda expect our comfortable life to be over anyhow. We are running out of various resources so badly - that there ought to be more wars - and more problems. Just think about Egypt - they will run out of water in 20 years - and there is no solution in sight at all. The whole world economy builds on the concept of finding new resources/energy concepts but since atomic energy we haven’t found anything really new. Solar power panels, wind, all only slow down the process - the production/distribution needs way too many resources to be a solution for more than 20-30 years. It’s just way too many homo sapiens in this world. And people never peacefully give back things they are used to have - so the only question is like:
Will we simply shoot people trying to migrate to us on the border, or will we stage wars to get rid of 90% of the population? Because billions will need to find new homes in the not so distant future (10-20 years max for it to start) Our world simply isn’t sustainable. If we manage to keep it up for another 20-30 years without major change - the downfall will be even worse.
I always thought China waits for more chaos and dominance before they attack (likeliest by blocking sea freight to Taiwan) Taiwan - so there will be 5-10 more years - but it may be China feels strong enough already.
Well that’s a cheery Friday night post. 
Guy
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The launch is just a show. It won’t be operational for years possibly a decade even.
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The article did mention that, yeah
Marxists believe in and practice the doctrine of deception and violence, and historical destiny of correctness. No different than a cult amplified a million times.
Therefore, plain and simple, just go back to the fundamentals and get a mutual Defence Treaty starting with Taiwan-Australia-Japan-US. If the CCP still wants to attack, then the Ally should wipe out PLA Navy. Strategic ambiguity is just a placebo and it is irrelevant to CCP course of actions.
If CCP appears to be “angered, ired, upset, provoked” that just means their strategy (since the 1970s) has be foiled. CCP original strategy to “cancel-culture the Taiwan” is not only to isolate Taiwan thereby demoralize Taiwan, but also to brainwash every ordinary Chinese into think they’re promised and entitled to a swath of land for free.
US helped China build the Great Firewall of Internet. For the past 7 years I argued that you need to penetrate the GFW by showing Chinese people photos of US Sec of States shaking hands with Taiwanese high officials, with flags and everything, big good propaganda photos with Taipei 101 in the backdrop. Still today, US diplomats tiptoe around, so of course the ChiCom and the Chinese people don’t think US diplomats deserve respect. (I can assure you PRC nationals look down on the soft-spoken demeanour of US diplomats; they find such characters annoying and cringy.) They only respect US Military.
When you de-recognized and de-platformed Taiwan, you emboldened the CCP by conferring it legitimacy, so you just fell right into their plan.
I don’t mind going back to Cold War 2 and Arm Race 2.
*** It’s not that I like it this way, but you know 3 generations of Chinese have been born into the Marxist Communist religion and they’re national identity is nothing but a Marxist Jihad, and you can send all of Kevin Rudd, Richard Bush, and all the Kissingers you have combined, at once, to Beijing but that only makes the Marxists feel empowered and emboldened more.