CaspianReport on China/Taiwan future

#1

Start at 18:00:

Shirvan Neftchi is an Azeri journalist whose “CaspianReport” YouTube videos focus on global geopolitics. In brief, he thinks China is unlikely to invade before about 2030 but after that China and the US will achieve military parity, and China has already signalled that it wants the whole thing resolved in time for its centennial in 2049.

#2

China could implode by that time.

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#3

Yeah, that’s a possibility I felt Shirvan overlooked. Demographics alone suggest that they’ll be more concerned with internal problems.

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#4

The issue of WMD is unknown. Right now China and big countries or a state such as NK possess WMD, what happens if a small democratic state can possess WMD.
That could change the equation. Right now China threatens Taiwan with complete destruction from missile strikes for example.

But apart from that the biggest variable is politics. Will Taiwan and China finally start talking and reach some political agreements.

It’s possible , maybe even probable .

The chance of China imploding is almost zero. Has anybody been to China recently, it ain’t no USSR or East Germany !

#5

China has economic issues that are below the surface that could become a real problem.

#6

So we’ve been hearing about for 20 years at least. In the meantime other countries have had booms and busts. Even if China has a bust is it finished with ?

Nope…It may cause us even more problems if they want to do a George Bush and Cheney on us and start bombs away.

#7

Yes let’s hope China doesn’t do that. The movie Vice was something huh? How the decision was made to bomb Iraq and Cambodia etc. just by a small group of people.

It should take an act of Congress and the House to bomb any country.

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#8

Bombing those countries to smithereens…And agent orange…Stuff of war crimes.
A very good movie though.

As for China.and the US, these guys are saying no recession till 2021.
I reckon.they are being overly optimistic. Predicting that Apple will reach new highs. Smooth growth in China and US?

JPMorgan Sees Better Growth in U.S., China Next Quarter https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-04-29/jpmorgan-sees-better-growth-in-u-s-china-next-quarter-video

I sold a portion of my US stocks already.

#9

Prior to 2008 China was growing at double digits without any significant deficit, the only gripe was no one has grown this much before. Now however they are growing at an ever smaller pace with significant deficit, they can’t keep this for long. Not predicting a hard-landing but they are definitely landing.
China’s demographics is a ticking time bomb as well. At least Taiwan and Korea can hope some level of immigration will alleviate the situation. What is China going to do with a population 1.5 Billion? take in half of India?