Chances of a DPP win 2016

Regarding Su and Tsai, didn’t Su just announce that he was running for Taipei leaving Tsai to either fight him for the DPP support or accept running in Xinbei?

[quote=“Mucha Man”]

Indeed, and this is a silly American thing which our American friends would do well to understand[/quote]

Merely responding in kind! :bravo:

You’re right, other factors were definitely more important in those elections. But I’m not about to engage in a statistical analysis of local elections to prove this point. I think it’s true though.

I wasn’t being condescending. Charisma is a non-issue for most democratic elections around the world. Almost every Yank on here is thinking it’s a big deal and almost certainly because it is a default assumption with them.

It comes across as condescending. I’d tend to think most if not all are offering opinions about Taiwan based on their experience in and knowledge of Taiwan.

When it comes to the presidency what is the evidence charisma plays such a deciding roll that any party needs to field candidates with this in mind? I’m happy to be proven wrong but I just don’t see it. Most people are voting based on party affiliation or under the influence of local pillars such as temple and farmers association leaders, or because of family pressure, etc.

Think of the ubiquitous and typically Taiwanese presidential election rally. What matters here–a sober analysis of the issues, or an ability to elicit an emotional response from the crowd? Your analysis actually goes to show how different politics here are from the more sober democracies you point to, where there are no existentially divisive issues and voters will make an unemotional decision based on projected policies. I think the DPP would be very wise to choose someone with the apparent ability to mobilize their base on an emotional level.

In defense, I never said charisma is all you need to have, or that a lack of charisma will make you unelectable. We’re talking about Taiwanese politics here, where people get into brawls in the Legislature or choose not to support certain companies because of their politics. Emotional bias most certainly plays a role in how people vote, though I obviously have not done the research to show how much of a role (nor would I know how to start on that research).

theguardian.com/commentisfre … mney-obama

Physical appearance, a part of charisma, has a large affect on results. This is discussed in Thinking, Fast and Slow, which the article above is likely echoing.

No time to go in depth.

Charisma in CCP and KMT is more the result of orchestrated mass movement than radiating from personal personality or appearance. In Mao’s time you could be a national hero, ‘flagrant flower’ one day and suddenly a national traitor, a ‘poisonous grass’, literally the next day. The switch completely depended on Mao’s will.

Another good example. If you read the blogs in pro-KMT newspaper, like UDN and Chinatimes, before this week you got the impression that Sean Lien is an extremely charismatic political figure. Blue loons said :‘Oh, that Sean. Sean is kind of ‘special blue’. Sean is so charming. Sean’s family is so patriotic and righteous.’ You get my point. They were crazy about Sean running for Mayor of Taipei in 2014. That was of course before Sean’s recent open criticism of Ma. In the same newspapers this week, we would find Sean descending from heaven straight to the trash bin. Here is one such blog in Chinese, and another one “連勝文在挺王司法關說,出來說話越多,越自曝其短,露出其自大狂傲的嘴臉而使人心生厭惡,更讓人認清是個是非不分、欠缺政治智慧的人,論格局與氣度都非大將之材。” If you are learning mandarin Chinese, this sentence is an outstanding example of traditional style of demonization in Chinese politics.

Sure, because Frank Hsieh was so much more successful at getting the green vote than Tsai. Come on, I don’t mind the analyses but it has to touch base with the facts at some point. Tsai had no problem mobilizing the DPP base for mass protests against ECFA. Her lack of charisma was often noted but didn’t seem to make the slightest difference.

He’s like a little troll Hsieh. That doesn’t say much. I could have mobilized the DPP base for a protest against ECFA. In this election, every vote is going to matter. If the DPP can pull it off, it’s not going to be by more than a hair.

Hsieh is a very engaging speaker.

No doubt, but that’s not what I call “charismatic.” I’d use the term for Ma, Chen and Lee. I don’t think they should nominate an empty head just because he or she looks and talks pretty either. However, with the favorable situation they seem likely to have in this election, and the election demographics being what they are–no DPP candidate ever having polled more than 50.1% in a national election–they need to maximize their opportunity. If a viable candidate has the advantage of charisma that is definitely a factor.

Charisma equals translating this

to this

and to this

Chen Ju is on the top of the latest survey of politician’s reputation.

The duckzila will put a DPP in the president office in 2016.

On the other hand it may be the Trojan horse of Dutch imperialist, coming back the second time.

Hsieh used to be… but in 2004 election his speeches and debates were horrendous. Maybe his heart just isn’t in it.

Tsai did ok in 2008 for someone not known for public speaking.

[quote=“printlessfoot”]Charisma equals translating this

to this

and to this

Chen Ju is on the top of the latest survey of politician’s reputation.[/quote]

I think she could be higher still if she loses the Perm :astonished:

[quote=“shiadoa”]
I think she could be higher still if she loses the Perm :astonished:[/quote]

Maybe these two should swap their hairs.

[quote=“shiadoa”][quote=“printlessfoot”]Charisma equals translating this

to this

and to this

Chen Ju is on the top of the latest survey of politician’s reputation.[/quote]

I think she could be higher still if she loses the Perm :astonished:[/quote]

The perm is what gets her the votes from Southern women 40-70. They all have a hideous perm.

[quote=“hsinhai78”]
The perm is what gets her the votes from Southern women 40-70. They all have a hideous perm.[/quote]

You are talking about a Batman sequel. Here comes ChewDonald.