China is picking quarrels and provoking trouble

[flatlandr]

True. They do have a fuckton of steel surplus sitting around.

[Mr_PBH]

@flatlandr

Their food comes by boat. Foreign navies are protecting the safe passage of those boats. They are between a rock and a hard place and can do nothing about it.

They can force a proxy war or two here or there. You like that steel, how about the DRCongo then? There goes the world’s cobalt supply. Bye bye EVs for a decade or more.

[flatlandr]

Globalization would have worked out so much better if they’d have just sat back and been satisfied with being the world’s factory.

[Mr_PBH]

@flatlandr

Globalization would have worked out so much better if they’d have just sat back and been satisfied with being the world’s factory.

Not really. If it wasn’t covid or geopolitical supply chain interruptions, it would be a tsunami or earthquake or volcanic eruption or drought or any number of other damned things.

Shit got this way by being spread out and somewhat self sufficient, and we should return to that kind of manufacturing base as well as keep the sea lanes free and easy for quick trade.

[afterspivak]

More pettiness from Beijing—or just a nice chance to enjoy Vietnam?

Vietnam should not be pressured by China's refusal to send tourists: experts...

https://twitter.com/bill_hayton/status/1626834768271638528

Guy

[afterspivak]

A suucinct assessment from Michael Schuman at the Atlantic on the current state of affairs:

The basic flaw in Beijing’s geopolitical strategy is that it is turning against China’s main economic partners (US & EU) in favor of politically similar states (Russia & Iran) that cannot and will never replace the economic losses created by the shift.

Source: https://twitter.com/MichaelSchuman/status/1629101295817871365

Guy

[Sinocelt]

Yes, but.

Putin’s war is benefiting China more than any other country. While Europe and the U.S. bleed money, China gets Russian natural ressources on the cheap and sees its currency get stronger (as the Yuan replaces the dollar in Russia). Russia is slowly becoming a vassal state of China.

Also, while Emperor Xi is learning a lesson from Russia’s debacle, it’s hard to say what this lesson is. We hope it’s “Leave Taiwan be.” Instead, it may be “We need a decisive victory in a matter of days, so let’s bomb Taipei to cut the head.” After all, Xi cares about Taiwan (1) to make a political statement and secure his legacy, (2) to control the South China Sea, and (3) for its high-tech industry. Taipei? Well, it has the National Palace Museum, which has cultural (and thus political) value, but everything else can be rebuilt, and that’ll mean millions fewer people in need of “reeducation.”

[OrangeOrganics]

I was thinking today that one of Chinas weaknesses and constant mistakes through the years is always being sure that the US is on the verge of collapse. It’s the Marxist gene that they believe that US capitalism will eventually eat itself. So much of Chinese misjudgment comes from believing that the U.S. is soon to destroy itself

So many people in the the U.S. seem to indulge in this similar belief in China but hopefully not on a policy level

[TT]

@Sinocelt

Putin’s war is benefiting China more than any other country

Yes but. Had also put paid to the idea that the west is in decline.

@Sinocelt

While Europe and the U.S. bleed money, China gets Russian natural ressources on the cheap and sees its currency get stronger (as the Yuan replaces the dollar in Russia).

Good points. But I think the west can afford it. And a stronger yuan isn’t necessarily good for China’s export based economy.

@Sinocelt

Russia is slowly becoming a vassal state of China.

Sucks for Russia. And who will bail out and prop up the Chinese if their invasion unfurls similarly?

@Sinocelt

Also, while Emperor Xi is learning a lesson from Russia’s debacle, it’s hard to say what this lesson is.

Absolutely. But if Putin had had a quick victory, seems to me it would be easier to say

@Sinocelt

We hope it’s “Leave Taiwan be.” Instead, it may be “We need a decisive victory in a matter of days, so let’s bomb Taipei to cut the head.” After all, Xi cares about Taiwan (1) to make a political statement and secure his legacy, (2) to control the South China Sea, and (3) for its high-tech industry. Taipei? Well, it has the National Palace Museum, which has cultural (and thus political) value, but everything else can be rebuilt, and that’ll mean millions fewer people in need of “reeducation.”

As you said, we can’t really know. “Level Taipei and kill millions for legacy and high tech” seems to me a bit hyperbolic. But yeah I hope not

[OrangeOrganics]

@Sinocelt

After all, Xi cares about Taiwan (1) to make a political statement and secure his legacy, (2) to control the South China Sea, and (3) for its high-tech industry.

The third one isn’t a factor. There won’t be a high tech industry

Xi wants Taiwan because the U.S. has built two chains of bases to contain China.

China wants to kick the U.S. out of Asia

That’s the main reason

[OrangeOrganics]

I don’t think China will start a war by committing war crimes and bombing civilians, what’s the point of doing that rather than attacking military targets?

[BiggusDickus]

@OrangeOrganics

I don’t think China will start a war by committing war crimes and bombing civilians, what’s the point of doing that rather than attacking military targets?

Russia has set an example.

EDIT: I’m aware that western powers have also done the same

[OrangeOrganics]

Right and it doesn’t do anything.

Ukraine didn’t give up after civilian deaths

[Sinocelt]

@TT

Had also put paid to the idea that the west is in decline.

This is Putin’s third invasion since 2008, and his second of Ukraine. The two first times, the West did nothing but waggle its collective finger. Putin and I were both surprised that this time was different – though I surmise his surprise was quite a bit darker than mine.

@TT

if Putin had had a quick victory, seems to me it would be easier to say

Very good – and very scary – point.

@TT

“Level Taipei and kill millions for legacy and high tech” seems to me a bit hyperbolic.

Unfortunately, I don’t think it is. Xi and Putin have the same concern for other people’s lives – i.e., none. I know it’s hard for people who are not sociopaths to believe that anyone could think that way, but history is full of leaders who gladly see myriads die for what they see as their legacy – be it territory, pyramids, or whatever else.

[BiggusDickus]

@OrangeOrganics

Right and it doesn’t do anything.

Ukraine didn’t give up after civilian deaths

Giving up after civilian deaths. Discuss.

We could all be Quackers.

[BiggusDickus]

Putin had his window of opportunity in 2014. He tried to play European/US geopolitics because he’s a genius at that.

[TT]

@Sinocelt

This is Putin’s third invasion since 2008, and his second of Ukraine. The two first times, the West did nothing but waggle its collective finger

I don’t believe, as some of our fellow Forumosans do, that the west wanted a war.

@Sinocelt

I know it’s hard for people who are not sociopaths to believe

You seem nice enough, almost certainly only a bit of a sociopath

Just kidding. Yeah, you’re right, and this has come up on the threads before. We can’t assume Xi will make what we think of as a rational decision. But I also think leveling Taipei isn’t good for that legacy

[Sinocelt]

@TT

You seem nice enough, almost certainly only a bit of a sociopath

I set myself up for that one, didn’t I?

[Mr_PBH]

Sociopaths tend to stick out. It’s their nature.

[MikeN1]

@Sinocelt

While Europe and the U.S. bleed money,

The US has given the largest part of aid to Ukraine, at 73 billion euros. Europe has given the second-most, at 37 billion. This 73 billion represents 0.37 of US GDP. This is bleeding like if you cut your little finger it is bleeding- slap on a band-aid.