Who is a pro-Beijing candidate? New Party?
Also a distraction from the Chinese economy, and from the missing defense minister, at home. Also also with Xi skipping the G20 and UN meetings a little sabre rattling might remind people to take China seriously.
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About a year ago, we went back-and-forth with @TT and @OrangeOrganics about the applicability (or inapplicability) of Joseph Nyeâs notion of âsoft powerâ to understand whatâs happening in relation to Taiwan and China and the world.
It was therefore fascinating for me to see this helpful exchange from TVBS with Joseph Nye on this very topic, in which Nye describes the PRCâs approach as more vinegar than honey. Itâs interesting stuff (video embedded below):
https://twitter.com/tvbsworldtaiwan/status/1707015600927883299
A full version of the interview appears on youtube here:
Guy
What is his conclusion?
soâŚare the ChiComms gonna attack or not?
It is odd that the US discourages Taiwan from declaring independence, when formal independence would help Taiwan seek recognition in the UN, which in itself might help deter an invasion.
Yet it was ok for the 13 colonies to declare their independence and seek out France to support their war with the worldâs superpower of that time.
You forget China is also on the Security Council. Look to Ukraine to see how well the UN can stop an invasion started by permanent members of the Security Council.
The US didnât support Taiwan Independence prior to the 70s because they wanted CKS to keep the CCP in place, but then they didnât support Taiwan Independence because they wanted the CCP to keep the USSR in place. Then they didnât support Taiwan Independence because they thought by giving a lot of capital to China would turn it into a democracy.
Now the US doesnât support Taiwan Independence because they donât want the war to breakout immediately.
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Yes i understand the reasoning, but it also goes against the US founding principle of self determination. A princple that is also supported by the UN too.
In all the treaties and the Taiwan Relation Act, technically the US is for self-determination, however, they prefer such self-determination doesnât start a war or for Taiwan to end up in the hands of the communists. Itâs a very intricate game the US was playing, and the whole charade was propped up by the USâ naval superiority.
The US would have the moral high ground if they helped facilitate a referendum on the question by providing security and an extreme show of force to allow it to happen unhindered.
The US would have the moral high ground if they kicked out CKSâ forces from their position as administrators trusted with the former Japanese territory when the 228 massacre began.
The UN is currently a joke when it comes to deterring superpower belligerence. In its own special way, it has become as useless as the League of Nations.
And no, typing those sentences does not bring me any joy. 
Guy
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What an abysmal take from all levels
Yea the magic power of the UN would certainly deter an invasion
Man they could have a meeting and then maybe even release a joint press release, and jeez Louise China would be in trouble
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Formal Independence would start a war
Can be almost 99% sure of that
I donât think there is much support for it in Taiwan for those reasons
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The problem of course is that China would have 0 ability of invading the island successfully prior to the 2020s.
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So what? Could still drop bombs and destroy everything
Any sniff of a war and Taiwanâs economy would collapse.
Not before the 90s. The issue with the âformal Independence would start a warâ excuse is that itâs less and less true the further back you go. The US would have had a secure first island chain without allotting sovereignty claims to potential enemies had it stopped atrocities CKS was committing back in 1947 or even the 1980s. Even if China got their own nuclear bombs by 1964, they had no way of delivering it to either Taiwan or the US, since they had neither air superiority nor missiles capable of doing so.
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I dont really agree and think there are too many externalities.
But letâs change it to the situation now: âFormal Independence Will Start a Warâ. Which is almost 99% the case.
Which is why there is very little support both in Taiwan and with allies
If the US unilaterally recognised Taiwan as a seperate country and put in place security required to resist any invasion it likely wouldnât lead to a war.
Isnât Terry Gou running on a pro Beijing platform?