So China launched a Long March 5 rocket on Apr 29 to deliver the core section of their new Tiangong space station. They have lost control of the rocket in low orbit and the rocket is on it’s way back into the atmosphere. The US army has named this object 2021-035B.
There is no telling where or when 2021-035B will make impact. It will pass over Taiwan around tonight at midnight.
A similar event happened last year, when China lost control over another Long March 5 rocket, when ended up crashing into the Atlantic near West Africa last May. A 12 meter long section crashing into a village in Ivory Coast.
It’s true. The chance of getting hit by falling debris is minute, but still…
"Jonathan McDowell, a Harvard astrophysicist and orbital object tracker, noted at the time that the Long March 5B core was the heaviest object to make an uncontrolled reentry through the atmosphere in nearly three decades. "
1991, when the 43-ton (39,000 kg) Salyut-7 Soviet space station fell through the atmosphere over Argentina
In May 2020, a Long March 5B rocket slammed through the atmosphere, partially burning up on its descent, Live Science previously reported. The core fell largely into the Atlantic Ocean, but some debris landed in West Africa. According to the [South China Morning Post]
It appears to be in an elliptical orbit a long way above the atmosphere, so presumably it’ll take a good while for the orbit to decay and rain molten trash onto Taipei, um, I mean into the ocean.
TBH I don’t understand why its orbit is decaying as fast as it is. Any orbital-mechanics experts here?
I guess it’s hard to predict at this point. The rate at which it bleeds off kinetic energy will start to increase as the atmosphere gets thicker. So probably somewhat less than that. I’m just waiting to see if it’s not as “out of control” as they make out. If de-orbiting occurs at a suspiciously precise moment and angle of entry, I’ll be hiding in the basement.
Very surprised it’s that rapid though. I was under the impression you could maintain something in that sort of orbit for years.
EDIT: ah, no, apparently not. The ISS uses a shitload of propellant to keep itself up there at 400km.
Just did the math, assuming it’s always the long side of the cylinder falling towards Earth, the terminal velocity is going to be 30.252 m/s, which would be 108.9072 km/h, actually not that fast…
If it’s flipping around, then it’s going to fall faster.
Oh, and I assumed it’s just steel, if it’s built with something denser, then it’s also going to fall faster.
