China protests / uprisings - the start of Chinese Revolution 3.0? Effects on Taiwan?

Discussion Greater Forumosa
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Some recent events are already mentioned in the “Coronavirus - China” Thread. But what’s currently happening seems not directly COVID related any more - so let’s have a dedicated thread.

Those things seems quite unprecedented (since Tian An Men) to me:

I wonder how this whole thing will go, and what effect on Taiwan it might have. The expectation of course would be

  1. Communications and media blackout in China
  2. Police and military crackdown
  3. Worst case maybe try to somehow attack Taiwan, in order to distract from internal problems?
  4. Best case somehow democratizes China, ending Taiwan’s international problems?

Here’s a recent summary of many events, ignore the click-baitey title:

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As I mentioned many Chinese are very pissed off at their government and quality of life now, they aren’t stupid.
Not sure what they can do about it having allowed the dictator for life grab all the power with barely a peep out of anyone.

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I saw an article on this referencing Tiannanmen and also thought it might be time for a thread. On the other hand, they might have the whole things stamped out quickly…

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We can always make a Revolution 4.0 thread in that case

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Students getting into the action, seems you called it just fine

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Also up on the BBC

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it sounds nice as a title, but I dont see much coming out of this, but imagine the craziness of having to be fenced in and welded into your apartment over covid, I thought the shit taiwan is doing bad enough couldn’t imagine china. Probably Also a bit of a economic crisis looming in China and the hopes and dreams of the youth in China are in the toilet.

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As long as the PLA stays loyal there won’t be a revolution.

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thats the way I see it, bunch, makes for a cool title, but as long as XI has his iron first nothing will come of it.

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And if they don’t stay loyal?

Xi is disliked even in his own party. There are many factions, power groups, and shades of grey when it comes to the loyalty question. I haven’t seen any of these riots being repressed. Which may indicate the police/armed forces are unenthusiastic about Xi, or quietly standing down.
Loyalty is not a yes/no question. It’s more like a percentage scale…

The situation is unfolding. At the very least, it’s interesting TV.

Once people see others protesting, it’ll reach critical mass.

We saw the Soviet bloc collapse 3 decades back. Why not the CCP?

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Hazmat Police line being broken by large group of protesters.

Video cued at 21:17.

Good to see that South African guy and Laowhy86 putting their faces to the revolution when it’s still ongoing. Showing some real leadership there.

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  1. Xi sends troops/gangsters/officials whatever to “control” the situation. Expect Tiannanmen Square 2.1 in Shanghai, Guangdong and every major city.

  2. Cultural Revolution 2.1 Xi style is implemented. Be happy or else.

  3. Taiwan power stations sabotaged, our internet cut out and decapitation attack on top officials implemented, blamed on green independence radicals dissatisfied with elections. Then a “civilian” PRC ship is sank, blame is on Taiwan, so in retaliation Taiwan gets pummeled by medium range missiles.

  4. West socialists applaud the “back to order”, start campaign to denounce US intervention in destabilizing China through infiltration and by manipulating the Chinese students. UN issues a condemnation of US and maybe the West in general for illegal actions disturbing Chinese peace and hence move public opinion against allies helping Taiwan.

  5. Since no one wants to start WWIII and Xi threatens to go nuclear if any ship steps into the Strait, well, it will be a done deal. All back to normal, China keeps being the factory of the world, the West gets iPhones every year and no one misses Taiwan.

So China’s next revolution depends on whether there is any power play shenanigans when Xi dies or if any environmental catastrophes do push the population over the edge like the Great Famine to overcome Cultural Revolution 2.0. Without Taiwan as distraction they still have Taiwan as haven.

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Oh now they don’t like it :joy:

No sympathy for them. They were all good with this BS when it benefited them and when the government bully other people. They deserve everything they are getting.

My only hope is a lesson learned. But I doubt it.

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Cashless society easily controlled. Convenient innovation, until it’s not.

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I can’t believe they won’t simply conveniently relax COVID regs. Assuming this really hasn’t gotten bigger than that. Saw reporting on one call for the party and Xi to step down today somewhere

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No one within the CCP has really tried to do anything against Xi Jinping since he entered office, that’s what makes me skeptical.

I’ll be watching how the situation unfolds.

I think Xi Jinping is a much more effective leader than Gorbachev.

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Its just a few small pockets of frustrated people. Mostly students.

I suspect those shouting for Xi to step down will be disappeared.

Next week things will be back to normal Covid lockdown without protest.

I doubt this will ignite into anything more than a snuffed out tiny fire of frustration.

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How do you know no one has tried to do anything against Xi since he entered office? These conversations are conducted in private rooms, likely with batteries taken out of mobiles, or whispered in parks. They are not going to be making Tiktok videos about their plans. :slight_smile:

Some communist party members have been calling for Xi’s resignation since 2016… way before the HK or COVID debacles. How much worse is it for him now?

The people of China seem to disagree with you…

I think he’ll be gone in a few weeks. This is not just about Xi anyway. They’re tired of, and angry with, the whole CCP.

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Very brave…but I don’t see this ending well.

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People said that about the movements in Iran too. Societies under dictatorship look calm until they explode. Maybe this time ain’t it (and it probably isn’t) but sooner or later people are going to be fed up.

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