Wasn’t sure if I would post on this forum again, but this garners discussion.
China providing weapons to Russia is a MASSIVE deal. It is China actually stepping onto the world stage.
Up until now all they have really done is try and make deals around the world, while watching America organize coups, terrorist attacks, riots and other nonsense to attack Chinese interests.
The act of supplying weapons won’t change the ultimate outcome of the war (Ukraine losing)
What it is, is a giant middle finger to the West, and specifically telling America to do it’s worst to them.
I’d like to know from people what that worst could be, because it seems to me America will push for escalation in Taiwan as their “economic” policy.
I don’t see them putting sanctions on everything China produces, and any sanctions to China would also be met with sanctions against the West. And will all of the West get on board? Lots of questions if this goes ahead and lots of un-knowns. Interesting times.
I think China’s busy playing both sides, but at the same time doesn’t want to tell Putin that his days are numbered. Or perhaps Xi told Putin that his days are numbered unless he does exactly what Xi says.
China can’t provide too much aid to Russia without the West slapping harsh sanctions that China wouldn’t accept… so they gotta play both sides.
“From 2016 to 2020, China was the largest recipient of Ukrainian weapons, receiving 36 per cent of Ukraine’s total exports. According to The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Ukraine exports US$80-90 million worth of weapons to China annually.”
You know I have to wonder if Xi and Putin has rehearsed this together. Basically Putin wants a way out, Xi wants a way out too (remember China gets weapons from Ukraine too). So he probably told Putin to request aid from China and China will deny it publicly. This way Putin doesn’t look like a wuss and Xi doesn’t look like he’s trying to help Russia win this “war”.
I can’t speak for them but neither are winning and both are loosing.
I know western media like to portray Ukraine as winning but they are fucked. Something like 70% of their critical infrastructure is destroyed and they’re running out of troops. It’s been shocking to see or not see the realities of Ukraine right now. It’s not being reported accurately in western media.
It’s not so clear Russia is losing. They’ve been fucked up too and their military has been underperforming for sure but Russia has numbers and will keep throwing numbers at Ukraine. They could keep it going for a while.
There will be no victory for either side. My hope is they will negotiate peace in some way that is acceptable to both sides at this point.
Unless China is that stupid geopolitically, which they have shown recently to really be, I don’t think they would provide weapons to Russia.
It would be so stupid. They gain nothing from doing so and risk a lot given their current economic situation.
Sanctions have not been very effective towards Russia because they’re not that plugged in the global economy. Sanctions on China will really hurt China right now. It would hurt everyone but it could be catastrophic for China.
They are fighting hard because they know if they lose they’re all going to die and their population is going to suffer immensely. Which is why despite all that they are still fighting. They know from history what happens when Russia takes over. I wouldn’t be surprised if they go all Japanese on them (Japanese were really difficult to fight against for the Americans…)
We are in condition, where Ukraine and West running low on munitions. It was said Russia drops more bombs in just one day than Europe is being able to produce in whole month.
Momentum is perfect for Chinese to cash in their bargain chips
Ukraine has as much chance of defeating Russia in a conventional war as Britain would have had of defeating Germany if all the U.S. had done was send weapons.
I don’t appreciate you lumping my comment together with @Rather nor did I comment on who is winning or losing, although @TT assertion of a stalemate seems more accurate although Russia is making minor gains.
My comment was only to point out it doesn’t seem like the Russians needs help. I may be wrong, I heard the Wagner group complained recently they weren’t being resupplied quickly enough but that seems to be resolved. So so long as Russia is able to keep resupplying they can keep going with no need for help. The ability to resupply the Ukrainians has been widely reported in western media as has the number of shells being disproportionate. Maybe the west is or has ramped up it’s manufacturing ability, it’s been widely noted the Ukranians are using the amunition at a rate far faster than we can produce.
Sure, but with Biden threatening them with similar sanctions to those the west imposed on Russia, I don’t think they are interested in a full on confrontation with the west, I think they will keep pushing peace plan initiatives for now.
It’s not the practical application of weapons but more about the statement China is making to the world. They are ready to weather sanctions to make their mark and America would need to respond. I just don’t see how America can beyond their typical playbook.
Russia also didn’t really want to be China’s friend. There is a video around of Biden joking that Putin approached him (not recently) and told him his concern of NATO expansion and that it would push Russia towards China.
Biden’s response was “Go ahead, and after China why not try Iran!”
Maybe that seemed funny at the time, but that arrogance has faded I think since then.
Wish I could find the clip. Saw it on the Jimmy Dore show but can’t remember which segment.
There’s some calculations where this could work in their favor; for example, sell (or threaten to sell) to Russia, then subsequently stop in exchange for concessions. High risk, high reward.
The Chinese are not known for making dramatic symbolic statements that carry with them significant real life consequences.
They are more practical than that. I wouldn’t put it past them to do something more sneaky and try to supply certain things through a third country like NK if they think they can get away with it. But not things that are going to obviously pointed out to be of Chinese origin.
