China's Population Decline is Da Bomb

The opinion piece comes amid growing concern about the country’s population crisis, which has pushed local governments to roll out a series of pronatalist policies to address the declining fertility rate and rapidly ageing population.

Births in China have been falling for four consecutive years since 2016 and hit a record low of 12 million in 2020. In some provinces, births are set to drop by close to 20 per cent this year.

Some demographers estimate China could go into population decline as early as this year.


I’ve been reading Zeihan for years. The population drop was never going to be a surprise to those who don’t lie for a living.

Money quote:
“This is what a country looks like when it is going out of history.”


Yep, China has a TFR of 1.60-1.70. Probably even lower. Back in the heyday of the One-Child Policy they would have been shouting this from the rooftops.

Taiwan 1.09, S. Korea 1.04, Japan 1.48
UK 1.7, France 1.8., Germany 1.54
Canada 1.47, Australia 1.65, US 1.8
India 2.2, Indonesia 2.3, Nigeria 5.3!
In 2070 biggest country in the world will be India, then Nigeria. China will drop by half to 750 million. US will slightly increase if immigration keeps up to historic rates. Littoral East Asia (that’s us!) and Europe will plummet drastically.

1 Like

China’s demographic issues are a real worry for them. Not only is the population old, but it’s also poor and uneducated. As manufacturing goes away, it’s going to be really hard to find work for these people.

The government is well aware of this though, which is why they are restructuring their economy. Will see how that goes.

Recommend reading Scott Rozelles book. Or listen to any of the webinars he did regarding it

We’re seeing it now. Doesn’t look good.

Not really , they just announced the reforms for the five year plan. Hard to say. Personally think they are overreaching and taking US decline for granted

If you keep setting new goals for the plan that isn’t working out, snot really a plan. Ad hoc central planning always ends of like this. The US is just milking the cow dry. Playing them out just like they did to the USSR, who look at that, is also suffering a horrid population decline.

That’s not how they view things. They think they are waiting the US out and American decline is inevitable

“China will not exist as a functional country in 10 years time.”
Money quote: What a fuckwit.

1 Like

Very silly thing to say

I’m not terribly interested in how China views its lies.


Our species is insane. We are about to launch a new telescope that will make Hubble look like a child’s toy, so we can understand creation, but at the same time we have stopped creating people.

I hope there’s an afterlife where someone can explain what the hell is going on.

1 Like

It isn’t how the Russians viewed it, either!


Oh yes. I forgot. A-Team and Metallica.

Well that Peter Zeihan guy seems like an idiot.

Yes because it is still the 1980s

It’s still the Regan era

Sounds like you. You bash China but no one else can. :laughing:

Do whatever you want . It’s Sunday

Keep it up, Jacky Chan.


It isn’t, though. You know what year it is, right?

Yes, but what year

I do that everyday. But this is about the population bomb, not you and your view 24/7.

But to be fair the world has changed a lot and the US just had a violent insurrection and retreated from Afghanistan. There are obviously a lot of structural problems in America right now and it has fallen from grace in the world.

Everything is about reform and I think Beijing is underestimating US ability for reform.