China's Population Decline is Da Bomb

So massive problems. Ok.

And that turn won’t happen in a dime. Babies can’t work in factories. Well, not yet.

Oh yeah, the population bomb

This is where countries like Canada and the US have a huge advantage, immigration systems the encourage people to come in. Sometimes more than is wanted, but it says much that there is the demand.

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Bwahahahahahaha

That single shot insurrection.

Bwahahahahahah

Yeah US has two key advantages over China, which is immigration and ability to build alliances.

Incidentally Trump did a good job at fucking both up

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Oh. I mean it doesn’t look great. This is why china feels so confident, it thinks that the schisms in the US system are beyond repair. Whatever you call it, it’s a fucking shit show

But the biggest force behind the “degrowth” trend is China. The University of Washington predicts that its population will begin to drop from next year, and that by 2100 it will plummet to 730 million from the current 1.41 billion

They are planning to take short term hits to restructure how their economy works. It’s too hard to say, as we are at the beginning of the reforms right now.

The demographic problems are real though

Why? It’s demographics. It’s not a new field of study. The writing is on the wall.

Yes great point

It is true, but it is also true that we can learn a lot from history. The challenge is not to cherry pick from history what suits our beliefs and ignore the rest (of which we are often ignorant)

Well, it wasn’t on the level of Tiananmen Square. A lot fewer tanks and deaths. We could also characterize it as a high point of robust American democracy…

True, but you could say the same about China. It isn’t even arguable where the bulk of soft power lies right now. Population-wise, people still want to go to America and this is possible; it will continue to attract the best and brightest of the world. China, on the other hand, doesn’t really attract anyone and is not structurally set up to bring in immigrant foreigners; and that’s before we start talking about xenophobia and racism which is part-and-parcel of Chinese nationalism.

Yes

True, but he was voted out because the system works. And as part of his insane presidency he was also able to do Taiwan a solid

I call it hubris, in this case on both sides

It is true that it is hard to say how economic reforms will counter the democratic writing on the wall, true. we don’t know what will happen but it is possible China will manage this successfully and with aplomb (only, highly doubtful)

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We use AI and robots to work for us as we become fewer and age to the point where the few of us remaining forget how to turn the AI on one morning.

Or the world population becomes completely Nigerian.

The US dollar. That’s the most powerful thing on this planet.

I agree with most of that.

Just one of the biggest mistakes People make with China is the collapsism trope. Namely, because the Soviet Union collapsed, it means China will do the same.

You see this here, Reddit and a lot from Taiwanese or whatever. It’s just wishful thinking

China is much more robust and advanced than the USSR was and they are much more entrenched in the global system. If anything they are more robust than a decade ago.

They are not just going to collapse , and on the contrary will probably carry on growing. We are just going to have to figure ways of living in a world with them and learn how to contain them or minimize our risk in exposure

Dollar supremacy also is an advantage

A sort of, ‘back to Africa,’ you might say. That would be funny.

If only we hadn’t wiped out the Neanderthals. We didn’t really think that through. Thanks a lot, caveman me.

Not without people they won’t. Kind of the point of the thread .

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maybe point it out next time you see it, but i don’t think i saw it on this thread (did see your movies/music argument trotted out again, though)

sure. my money is still on the US

Well, not in the next 10 years anyways. it would be interesting to see how things have changed around 2100, but i expect to be gone by then.

i see this happening more and more. flipboard this morning showed me an article from the UK on how to have a china-free christmas!

ultimately, the population decline is happening and is not a good thing for china. this is not debatable. what we don’t know is how much they can figure out ways to live with this and contain or minimize the impact on their economy.

Agree. As said, population decline is not really the main problem, the problem is that their population is old and uneducated or unskilled.

Most people cannot retrain or upskill for more advanced industries, or are too old to do so. Taiwan and Japan has an old population, but a very educated and skilled one.

With the decline in manufacturing, China literally has hundreds of millions of people with nothing to do and no real social safety net to support them .

On the other hand. The state has way way more resources and tools at hand than our own countries. They can close and open whole industries and make reforms or policy changes in days, whereas would take us years.

It will be.

You didn’t read what I wrote