Coronavirus Crisis Open Thread May-September

"UK airlines say they have been told the government will bring in a 14-day quarantine for anyone arriving in the UK from any country apart from the Republic of Ireland in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

The new restriction is expected to take effect at the end of this month."

Where have they been for the last three months? Along the same line . . .

Yes. I get the little news paper for sales each week and plan ahead. I can usually get quite a bit on buy 1 get 1 stuff. It’s not ideal, but it’s doable. If you’re eating enough to get obese, it means you have enough to eat healthy if you really wanted and probably have money left over.

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Not sure this has been posted yet but it’s an interesting read on how viruses spread and the infectious dose:

Yea, we’ll be in a head museum or something…

Today, The Weekend Australian reports that a dataset obtained from the WIV using the hacked credentials suggests that cases in China have been under-reported .

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I think this has been mentioned before, but this article is a warning towards asymptomatic infected patients who may have underlying damage without suspecting it. And it also has an interesting recommendation at the end.

Silent hypoxia has surprised many doctors. Some patients are running so low on oxygen, health-care workers would normally expect them to be incoherent or in shock. Instead, they’re awake, calm, and responsive. They chat with the physicians. They use their cell phones. While the basic physiology behind why these patients don’t immediately feel short of breath is well understood, scientists are still trying to come to grips with exactly how COVID-19 ravages the body, and why this disease, in particular, can quietly take your breath away.

The curious presentation of COVID-19 has led many health-care professionals to search for more effective routes for treatment. Many now suggest holding off on using mechanical ventilation for patients unless their condition is advanced. Instead, they are trying less invasive supportive care early on, such as supplemental oxygen and placing patients in a prone position on their bellies to allow for better oxygen flow.

To be clear, these are not asymptomatic patients. They are by definition symptomatic, but in silent hypoxia, the presentation of hypoxia is atypical (elevated breathing rate, discoloration of nails, lips, etc. but delayed overt breathing difficulty and cognitive effects) and could therefore go unnoticed initially.

There is no indication as to what percentage of infected have silent hypoxia, or whether the damage caused in these cases is long-lasting or permanent. Most likely the extent and longevity of the damage probably comes down to how long the infected goes before diagnosis and treatment, as well as age and overall health.

“So far, potential vaccines are still not safe enough, and that may continue to be an issue for quite some time,” he added. “While a country with a high infection rate and a high death rate [from coronavirus] may consider using such a vaccine, for Taiwan with its very low infection and death rates, that is not an option.”

It’s interesting to consider the possibility that a country like Sweden, with its controversial and as-yet-proven-effective herd immunity strategy, might find itself in a better situation in the coming months and years than countries that were more effective in stopping the spread of the virus.

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It will be interesting. Sweden may just be doing what everyone is going to have to do only more rapidly. It could be that countries like the USA and UK who have completely screwed things up end up with a better result than the countries who are deemed to have got their response right.

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Taiwan’s strategy, in spite of having been a great short-term success, is self-defeating in the medium- to long-term. Not really smart for a small island country (and a diplomatic pariah) to keep itself physically sealed off from the world for months or even years.

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It’s not proven yet that people that had covid-19 are immune. In Belgium they have a case from someone being infected in Wuhan, and now does not show any antibodies.

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In the long term we’re all dead. I am really glad that we avoided lock down. The economic cost of not allowing easy freedom of movement? It will be really interesting to see how that pans out. I have a sneaking suspicion that tourism, international trade fairs, business travel etc have an overestimated economic impact. We’ll see.

I’ve given up hope on returning home any time soon.

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You think it’s going well economically even though there was no shut down? Do you think opening up will have the economy explode in other countries?

Well, tourism alone employs 1 in 10 people in the world. Anyway, the idea of international travel shutting down entirely…honestly, I’m not sure that’s a planet I want to live on. The green nuts might be getting the medieval future they’ve been pining for.

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Forecast GDP growth just under 2%. Compare that with 15-30% contraction in the UK/USA. In relative terms, at least, Taiwan’s economy is doing rather well.

Opening up will cause the economies of countries under shutdown to temporarily explode. Second wave will then stop the explosion.

But that’s another economy as what I have in mind, hospitality, gastronomy.

That’s why over 1000 companies have people on leave in Taiwan.

You’re right. But:

  1. It’s not guaranteed that a safe, effective vaccine will be developed in the near future, if ever. To my knowledge, there are currently no vaccines approved for coronaviruses.
  2. Even if immunity proves to be short-lived, it is more likely that people with past exposure who recovered will not suddenly get seriously ill. The data is becoming clearer and clearer: the vast majority of the people who are getting seriously ill and dying are older and sicker. In many places, the majority of deaths are occurring in nursing homes and long-term care facilities. The scary headline-producing but very small minority of cases of younger people getting severely ill and dying may have genetic factors we don’t yet understand.
  3. Long-term, arguably no country can afford to keep itself hermetically sealed. If immunity is short-lived and an effective vaccine is never developed, what are countries going to do? Taiwan needs to start thinking about these eventualities.
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But they can still spread it.

Yes, and in time they are increasingly likely to expose people who had been exposed previously. That’s the whole point.

The big challenge is how we protect vulnerable populations. It’s a tough balancing act, and one that is only going to get tougher as the economic costs of shutting down the global economy grow.

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The problem with this virus is there is no 100% right or wrong response. This is the issue politicians are coming up against.

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