Coronavirus Vaccine Discussion

Someone is going to be laughing… all the way to the bank. Why do I get the feeling that without a vaccine, eventually your freedom of movement will be limited? Maybe that’s just horse rubbish.

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Freedom of movement has always been limited.
Some voters such as in the UK and US want to limit freedom of movement. Can’t blame that on a vaccine.

If you have a passport from Pakistan, Syria, Iraq or North Korea the vaccine won’t help your freedom of movement anytime soon.

My dad just took the Novavax vaccine. He was randomly selected for a volunteer choice. We’ll see whether he was given the real thing.

Very interesting, hope it’s a success. I was just reading this article https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/28/is-it-worth-carrying-on-as-a-guinea-pig-if-a-vaccine-has-already-been-found

A vaccine “has already been decided upon” will be more likely IMO.

The Swedish company that makes Novavax shares jumped 23% today. This is all so sad.

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Why anyone would want a two-dose vaccine that has been rushed to market is beyond me. Especially for a disease with a high survival rate, where most people don’t even know they’ve had it.

Some of the more common Covid-19 vaccine side effects are:

  • headaches
  • sore arms
  • fatigue
  • chills
  • fever

Public health officials and drugmakers need to warn people that coronavirus vaccine shots may have some rough side effects so they know what to expect and aren’t scared away from getting the second dose, doctors urged during a meeting Monday with CDC advisors.

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I suppose people have their reasons. The ability to travel is perhaps one. Another might be altruism, misguided or otherwise. A different assessment of the risk involved compared to yours could be another.

Who knows? My dad is an exceptionally intelligent 80 year old. Oxbridge educated. He clearly has his reasons.

Does anyone know if there has ever been a RNA based vaccine used on humans?

This is why I’m not fan of rushed medical technology. I’m a bit the same when it comes to updating software on my PC after getting caught out a few times.

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Death rate is anywhere from 3-10% for over 80s.
And for over 60s it’s something like 1%.
Covid-19, study after study, has come in with a death rate 10x that of a bad flu strain…Approx 1% averaged across all age groups.

I’m using conservative estimates. These guys give higher figures.

No, you’re not. You’re confusing CFR and IFR. For every lab confirmed case of coronavirus, there will be multiple cases that aren’t lab confirmed. Ultimately, most people are concerned with IFR because it tells us what the odds of dying are if you’re infected.

The overall IFR for all age groups is not 1%. To get an IFR that high, you have to hit the 65-69 age group.

The WHO published a report in September that concluded:

Acknowledging these limitations, based on the currently available data, one may project
that over half a billion people have been infected as of 12 September, 2020, far more than the
approximately 29 million documented laboratory-confirmed cases. Most locations probably have an infection fatality rate less than 0.20% and with appropriate, precise non pharmacological measures that selectively try to protect high-risk vulnerable populations and settings, the infection fatality rate may be brought even lower.

https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

To answer the question posed by @welcome unless you’re in a high-risk group or among the people who frequently has close contact with members of high-risk groups, you probably don’t have a compelling rationale for wanting to be a guinea pig for vaccines that are being rushed to market.

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I’m not confusing anything.

I know that and that’s why I said I was USING CONSERVATIVE FIGURES.

And yet I can dig out plenty of studies to back the 1% death rate across all age groups.

Because the death rate is so high in the elderly it brings the overall rate up to approx 1%.

Over the six-week period of data, there were 178,568 COVID-19 deaths from a total population of approximately 2.4 billion people. Age and sex were associated with COVID-19 mortality. Compared with individuals ages 54 years or younger, the incident rate ratio (IRR) was 8.1, indicating that the mortality rate of COVID-19 was 8.1 times higher (95%CI = 7.7, 8.5) among those 55 to 64 years, and more than 62 times higher (IRR = 62.1; 95%CI = 59.7, 64.7) among those ages 65 or older. Mortality rates from COVID-19 were 77% higher in men than in women (IRR = 1.77, 95%CI = 1.74, 1.79).

CFR and IFR measure two different things. Use of one versus the other is not a conservative comparison. It’s comparing apples and oranges.

There is no current IFR estimate that is anywhere near as high as 1% across all age groups.

To repeat, IFR measures the estimated fatality rate of those who have been infected.CFR measures the fatality rate of those who have been confirmed as infected.

THESE ARE NOT THE SAME THINGS.

The number of people who have been infected is anywhere from 10-20x higher than those who have been confirmed infected.

Please stop spreading misinformation.

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I know they are not the same things.

What’s wrong with you ?

You seem to hate that it has a death rate that has been estimated time and time again at 1% across all infected , which is 10x the worst flu we have experienced in recent history.

As I said I used conservative estimates. This one claims 1.5% is more accurate even with advances in treatment.
.

The new estimates were prepared by Trevor Bedford, a genomic epidemiologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, in Seattle, using data from the COVID Tracking Project at The Atlantic, which compiles the cases and deaths that states report. They were then independently analyzed by the forecasting expert Ryan Tibshirani at the Delphi Group at Carnegie Mellon, which works closely with the CDC on disease modeling. If we look back over the past several months, the method Bedford used has proved more accurate than other means of forecasting near-term deaths

And this…Excess deaths.

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Over 80s have a much higher chance of dying of almost anything. Life expectancy in the U.S. is 78.93. So it’s really no big surprise that any coronavirus would cause more deaths in this age range.

Going by the mortality rate (mortality rate). Covid-19 is 31% worse than influenza and pneumonia.

Covid-19 has a global average of 23.74 deaths per 100 000 population.
Influenza and pneumonia deaths (U.S. 2018) Deaths per 100,000 population: 18.1

Prove me wrong.

Sources:

https://wonder.cdc.gov/controller/saved/D76/D90F842

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So you are now admitting that coronavirus is lethal for over 80s . But you are leaving out that coronavirus is not even close but TEN TIMES more lethal.

Covid , study after study has been shown to be minimum TEN TIMES to maximum ONE HUNDRED TIMES more lethal for the elderly !!!

Not only that for the over 60s you at hitting more than 1% death rate per infected individual.

As I mentioned covid mortality rate is 10x worse than a bad flu year (only 0.1% in over 65s).

You’re cherry-picking an age range that suits your purposes. The mortality rates suggest Covid-19 is 31% worse than influenza and pneumonia deaths (U.S. 2018). This stands across all age ranges.

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No. I’m saying anyone above 80 has exceeded the U.S. life expectancy, and are therefore very frail.

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Your bullshitting and failing badly.

Stats clearly show for over 65s COVID is minimum TEN TIMES to maximum HUNDRED TIMES more lethal than flu.

I actually use conservative estimates usually just to save hassle.

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