It would be foolish to dismiss China’s military as junk. Never underestimate your enemy.
Quite a bit of bravado, yet very little brains in those comments.
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Agreed. Good thing the Taiwanese government is investing in more and better weapons, both domestically produced and purchased from abroad, while the US is repositioning and marshalling allies. Clearly, nobody is seriously pretending there is nothing at all to worry about.
Their navy is trash. Show me why it is not? There is much ignorance in your comments.
So lets check out one of its pride pieces of junk.
Because they have one, it is growing, and they are using it to project a show of strength all over the seas.
Nobody has seen them used in a war setting yet. It’s all guesswork and propaganda to say their fleet is rubbish.
Wiser to take them seriously and react without underestimating them.
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Fortunately the US military is not making its decisions based on Wired articles from 2011.
For a discussion of more recent US military analysis of the situation…
tl;dr is that the US still has a significant advantage in some areas like aircraft carriers but the US advantages have eroded significantly in other areas.
In terms of the Taiwan situation China’s advantage and America’s challenge is that Taiwan is just a hop skip and a jump away from China’s shores. If we were talking about China attacking Guam, Hawaii or even the Philippines it’s a totally different story. China wouldn’t even get out of the kiddie pool…
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I would honestly love to believe that the CCP would invade Taiwan but then what? Call the firing squad for the “separatist” DDP members? The international community would shun their government and the Chinese people and China would be boxed out from the world economy. This is a way different situation than Crimea in 2014.
As long as Japan, India, and the 5 eyes are protecting Taiwan, the CCP would never invade. Always remember that the West (US) is stronger than they lead on, since they are constantly trying to get more funds from congress and China is weaker than they lead on, since they are constantly trying to stay one step ahead of the Chinese people.
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Yup. The west is way stronger than the lead on and China way weaker. There are a lot of gullible people around who believe the CCP propaganda, on and off line.
You state with certainty that which nobody can be certain of…
China crushed two systems, one country in Hong Kong and caused a pandemic that has caused millions of deaths and trillions of $ in economic damages and… it ended 2020 with a record trade surplus.
Boxing China out from the world economy is something the “international community” might not have the will to do because China owns so many parts of the supply chain and has been one of the biggest drivers of global economic growth for the past decade.
Again…you ignore the very real possibility that China isn’t going to invade Taiwan but rather force it to give in. My bet is on China taking Matsu, Kinmen first. US isn’t going to start a hot war over these small islands so close to China but it would create a big dilemma for Taiwan and the US. And yes…this is one of the scenarios that military experts raise.
How many of these countries have defense treaties with Taiwan? I’ll give you a hint: it starts with z. How many of these countries have official diplomatic ties with Taiwan? I’ll give you a hint: it starts with z.
The assumption that a bunch of countries that won’t even establish official diplomatic relations with Taiwan are going to protect it from China under any scenario is the source of many of Taiwan’s problems…
Don’t disagree at a high level but the basic problem with Taiwan in a conflict is geography. China knows this and has focused much of its military modernization on anti-access and area-denial.
If more people here actually read the detailed reports published by DoD/US military and Western think tanks they would understand this…
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I am 99.9% certain that the UN and the international community would take a step towards shutting China out. The day the CCP invades the island is the day that most Western countries stop doing business with China.
Defense treaties are usually among two nations and since Taiwan is (and cannot be) internationally recognized, a formal defense treaty is not needed.
The Taiwan Relations Act is basically a defense treaty anyways. The US has always and more than likely will always back the ROC.
The UN? Are you f*cking kidding me? China is one of the 5 permanent members of the security council and is the 2nd biggest financial contributor to the UN after the US.
The UN is a toothless body. WHO anybody? Myanmar? The UN expresses concern and condemns while people die.
Huh??? Why can’t Taiwan be recognized? 14 countries recognize it.
It’s not just about the position the US takes. It’s about what it can do. Read the DoD’s own reports. Because of China’s PLA modernization and focus on anti-access and area-denial the US has big big challenges in this part of the world…
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No challenge, US powered Nuclear subs will wreck the Peoples corrupt Navy in days. The only challenge is from their air force, but once Taiwan updates its F16’s they can win in all dog fights. The Chinese might land some airborne in the Taichung area. So what they will be mopped up. Game over.
Depends on who they appropriated their technology from.
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You mean Taiwan or the CCP?
Why do you feel the PLA is so weak and such a non threat when your own government and military advisors are saying entirely the opposite ?
If they do invade, in a conventional way where there are air and naval battles, it would start with a massive missile attack on airfields etc. followed by bombers and fighter escorts. The F16s would be hit on the ground and mopped up in the air.
In the Falklands war the airforce destroyed less fighters than the SAS, and that was in a scenario where they didn’t lose one dogfight. There are plenty of ways the Chinese can cripple the Taiwanese Air Force
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It’s fine to be positive and optimistic. It is fine to try to boost pride in Taiwan. But it is also wise to be realistic.
You’re having a hard time keeping up so I’ll try to help you. If you look at a map you might notice how close Taiwan is to China. That’s because…it is really close to China.
Taiwan and most of the first island chain is smack dab in the range of China’s land-based planes and missiles. So much of what the Chinese have to accomplish militarily in a conflict doesn’t even take place on the seas…
On the seas, the US Navy (surface and sub) far outclasses the PLA Navy but again…geography is a bitch.
Much of the first island chain is within range of Chinese land-based planes and missiles, which are linchpins in Beijing’s anti-access/area denial strategy. It’s in that area where the US and its partners could see their advantages thwarted.
“Now the Chinese have the advantage of numbers, because they have a large number of submarines that can operate, and they’ve only got a small area in which they need to conduct operations,” Clark said.
China could “flood the zone” with subs good enough to “maybe overwhelm US and Japanese [anti-submarine warfare] capabilities.”
The anti-submarine-warfare capabilities of the US and its partners may also be constrained.
US subs would likely be tasked with a range of missions, like land attacks or surveillance, rather than focusing on attacking Chinese subs, leaving much of the submarine-hunting to surface and air forces — exposing them to Chinese planes and missiles.
“The stuff we use for ASW is the stuff that’s most vulnerable to the Chinese anti-access approach, and you’re doing it close proximity to China, so you could get stuck and not be able to engage their submarines before they get out,” Clark said.
Numbers and location also give China a potential edge in a “gray-zone” conflict, or a confrontation that stops short of open combat, for which US Navy leadership has said the service needs to prepare.
China’s subs present “a challenge [US officials] see as, ‘What if we get into one of these gray-zone confrontations with China, and China decides to start sortieing their submarines through the first island chain and get them out to open ocean a little bit so they’re harder to contain,’” Clark said.
“If we’re in a gray-zone situation, we can’t just shoot them, and we don’t necessarily have the capacity to track all of them, so now you’ve got these unlocated Yuans roaming around the Philippine Sea, then you may end up with a situation where if you decide to try to escalate, you’ve got worry about these Yuans and their ability to launch cruise missiles at your ships,” Clark added.
“As the home team, essentially, China’s got the ability to control the tempo and the intensity,” he said.
The US and its partners have already encountered such tactics.
Bryan Clark is a senior fellow at the Center for Budgetary and Strategic Assessments. That’s a DC based think tank. Not a Beijing based think tank.
They’re going to win every dog fight huh?
You should Google to see the size of the PLA Air Force vs the Taiwan Air Force.
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Seriously, are some people here so blind? Yes some 14 small countries recognize it. So what? The rest 150+ do not. Those 14 countries have no clout.
@crusher
And yes Taiwan will certainly win in a literal “dogfight” with China. But in a real combat, sorry no. There’s no competition. It’ll be easier than the nazis going into Poland.
Sure. They’ll restart business the next day with TSMC, Hsinchu, greater China.
This is the kind of defeatist attitude that helps the CCP.
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You always post this kind of response, blaming people who acknowledge the reality. Why?
If you’re out of shape it’s not defeatist to accept that you’re not currently able to win a fitness competition. Because you’re not going to win one by pretending that you’re not out of shape. Realizing that you’re out of shape is the first step to have a chance to decide that you are going to improve…
Numerous ex-Taiwan military and international experts have pointed out that the military leadership in Taiwan is largely in denial of the reality. The best thing that could happen for Taiwan is if the people in charge were honest about the situation, both within the government and with the people, and embarked upon a super urgent effort to not only improve the military but prep the citizenry for what might be ahead.
Double the defense budget. Fix all of the obvious flaws with military training, like trainees not getting any practice firing weapons. Launch a campaign to change attitudes about the military and offer big incentives for young people to get involved. Put the country on a war footing like Israel.
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