Disturbing Article on China's Preparations for War

Beijing’s ominous new threat on Taiwan
By Macabe Keliher

SHENZHEN, China - Taiwanese investors on the southeast coast of China got a shock recently when officials from the Chinese Communist Party (CPP) showed up and delivered an ominous message that, this time, the threat of military action against Taiwan could be more than mere rhetoric. And this was not the only sign that a real shooting war may be in the offing.



Wow, good article. I think the shooting will begin at noon on the day before the election, March 19 I guess. Be prepared, folks. Be fully prepared. Bottled water, the whole nine yards. This one’s for real!

What makes you say that? That seems like the worst time to invade.

I don’t follow China-Taiwan relations particularly closely, but it seems to me that the PRC would only invade if they were pretty certain that the US would not intervene. Does the PRC want to take on the US in order to ‘take back’ Taiwan? I doubt it, but then again I’m no expert in these matters.

So, in the absence of a declaration of independence by Taiwan (or even some kind of de facto declaration like a referendum result which said yes to independence), aren’t we safe from attack? Or are my assumptions about the certainty of US military intervention based on shaky premises?

The usual… However, if they were to launch a war, “someone” stocking up on cooking oil would not be the the most omnious sign.

They would have to gather a big fleet in every harbor in Fujian, get another million soldiers down there etc. and that would be very noticeable, if you ask me.

The fuel thing is likely Sinopec being caught without proper hedging.

The inflation in China is a function of pump-priming since 1998. It’s coming home to roost, and I would worry more about the inflated Chinese economy and less about war.

Unfortunately, with Chen demonstrating his usual appalling judgment, blinkered obstinacy and blind folly, going way over the top and being so recklessly provocative toward Beijing that even Taiwan’s American friends are forced to speak up and tell him to back off, the likelihood of war is growing more and more real. We have very good reason to worry.

When omni supports formosa, there is good reason to prepare for the worst. Omni, what are your plans? Stay and fight, or fly to Maui?

All kiddink aside, this is serious. I think omni hit the preverbal nail on the head.

Look at how the PRC stood down against the protestors in Hong Kong earlier this year. And that was on territory that already has a PRC miitary presence, where the rebellion could have easily been put down (as Hong Kong has no military force).

Omni having a hand in fighting off the Chinese invasion? That sounds like something a space cadet might say but I think it could just work. I can see the headlines:

Flasher Scares Off Chinese Invasion Single Handedly

I have to agree: I think the article combines good evidence and inconclusive evidence to come to an erroneous conclusion.

8-10% annual growth will eventually strain even the more robust infrastructures. Shortages in coal are appearing. And since when did people go to war stockpiling vegetables for the next six months. Hello! vegetables would need to be frozen/canned or consumed once stockpiled. One would need to look at grains as a more likely indicator: eg. rice. Has there been significant stockpiling of rice? Vegetable oil shortages may be the result of a lack of vegetables to turn into oil.

Yes, I think there’s reason to worry, but this article isn’t one of them.


Hong Kong is already theirs.

I’d give Taiwan a week or two at most to hold off China. The Generals talk a good game but the average joe on the street only cares about living. Taiwan will join China either on its own, not likely but…, or by force. America will not help.

Moderator’s reminder: Thou shalt not copy and paste the entire texts of articles, esp. if they are copyrighted.

The China Threat?
Published: December 20, 2003

[quote]what troubles me, as one who loves China and is rooting for it to succeed, is the growing nationalism that the government has cultivated among young people…

It nurtures nationalism by defining China as a victim state, the world’s punching bag, that must be more aggressive in defending its interests…

one factor is the way the Chinese government has been pushing nationalist buttons in an effort to create a new national glue to hold the country together as ideology dissolves. By constantly excoriating the Japanese nationalists of the 1930’s, they are emulating them.

One of the lessons of 1930’s Japan and Germany is that ferocious nationalism is a real global security risk…

Meanwhile, we in the West are bashing China, unfairly and demagogically, over its exports. But we’re missing the risk in China’s rise. The menace isn’t in its trade policies, but in its nationalist psychology.[/quote]

Yeah, America never stands by its commitments.

Some Links: (courtesy of Winds of Change)

Why China will Not Invade Taiwan

But They Don’t have to Actually Invade…

All China has to do is convince the international community that what Chen Shui-bian is doing is tantamount to “unlateral steps towards changing the status quo” and they have their excuse for invasion … and I think now the U.S. is less likely than ever to intervene. Also, if they do it now, by the time the 2008 Olympics come around, most people’s memories will have sufficiently faded … I’m not leaving though … if the missles start flying, I’ll go hang out somewhere like Xinzhuang until the shooting stops.

Well I for one will not leave if the shooting starts. But I have one question if they invade before the election where will that snake of a president run to? I don’t think America will take him in…

Although I don’t agree with Chen Shui-Bian, I believe that people in Taiwan have rights to choose whether they want to hold a referendum or not. ( But I hope they don’t do it.) It’s democracy, American core values, right? (But the decision of the referendum seems like a dictator’s behavior.)

I believe that America has helped Taiwan for its best interest. If Taiwan is abandoned when new international situations change, it’s understandable. (For Taiwanese, it’s painful. Of course.)

If China takes Taiwan, it’s interesting to know what it wants next. Many countries hundreds years ago belonged the China Empire. Or what a crazy thing it likes to do in the Pacific Ocean after the Three Gorge dam.

China will find a neighbor it has “been victimized” by, like Korea, which for all purposes used to be under Beijing/Nanjing until 19th century.

After that, there’s always the Japanese, not to mention Siberia. I have read someplace, that China still has a terretorial claim on the area and still mentions it in schoolbooks and the like.

Dictators do not ask the citizens to vote in a referendum. That is the exact opposite of a dictator’s behaviour.

Referendums are a very important part of democracy. The KMT were being undemocratic by limiting the questions that could be asked. They dictated what the people could say or not say with their vote.



I think a lot of people are missing the big picture, entrenched too deeply in their idealistic visions of the world. Of course, ideally, the Taiwanese should have the right to hold a referendum and choose whether or not they want independence. But, this is not an ideal world, and those 500 missles sitting across the Taiwan straits (and the resolve of the Beijing government to use them) is very real. For this reason, I think Chen Shui-bian’s behavior is reckless, and the referendum is a bad idea (not to mention most Taiwanese prefer maintaining the ambiguous status quo) … it has nothing to do with “suppressing the democratic rights of the Taiwanese people” or whatever. While you can say that the KMT wants to suppress people’s rights by controlling the language used in a referendum, you can also say that Chen Shui-bian is grossly abusing the democratic system for his own political gain. Which of these is more likely to maintain peace in Taiwan?

As for some people not believing that the PRC has the balls to launch an attack against Taiwan, since when have they cared about what the outside world thinks? Anyone remember Tiananmen, or the brutalities carried out in the same year in Tibet all in front of the cameras? They’re just waiting for one small excuse, and I’m afraid that this might just be what Chen Shui-bian is giving them.