US sets a bad example by invading Iraq. I think China could just do the same if they find the excuse, something like American’s 911 excuse.
I am not saying the 911 attack is right. But it provided a good excuse.
Well, I just want to hear different opinions from the international community here in Forumosa.
By the way, I am a Taiwanese.
Peace!!
Do you worry too much? I don’t know. Will there be a war? Almost certainly.
And how did the US set a bad example by attacking Iraq?
The bad example is: if you are powerful enough, you can just invade other countries, even it’s 21st century now.
Taiwan has been invaded so many times because of its great location.
The Dutch, the Spainish, the French, the Japanese.
Maybe the English, I am not sure. :?
Anyway, Do you think there will be war between Taiwan and China in the near future? Let’s say, in two years?
According to some US government reports, Taiwan will loose its advantage in the air in one or two years because China’s SU-27 Jetfighters. In the past 15 years, Taiwan’s F-16 and Mirage 2000 helped defend the Taiwan Strait effectively. But China improves their military technology drmatically after 1990.
And what would you do? Maybe that’s a dumb question, but I know some people have Taiwanese wife here.
Mirage 2000
F-16
SU-27
[quote=“cybertai”]The bad example is: if you are powerful enough, you can just invade other countries.
Taiwan has been invaded so many times because of its great location.
The Dutch, the Spainish, the French, the Japanese.
Maybe the English, I am not sure. :?
Anyway, Do you think there will be war between Taiwan and China in the near future?
And what would you do? Maybe that’s a dumb question, but some people here have Taiwanese wife.[/quote]
They would probably take their Taiwanese wives with them when they leave, I would guess.
You worry too much. According to your pictures the Chinese planes fly vertically and are therefore pointing in the wrong direction to be a threat to anyone except migrating birds and high-altitude mountaineers.
Is it true that China has the largest airforce in the world, or do I watch too many James Bond movies?
Will there be a war? I think the question should be when.
[quote=“Bassman”]Is it true that China has the largest airforce in the world, or do I watch too many James Bond movies?
Will there be a war? I think the question should be when.[/quote]
Quantity is no substitute for quality. Not that I’m defending the reputation of Taiwan’s pilots, mind you - crash! crash! crash!
You worry too much. According to your pictures the Chinese planes fly vertically and are therefore pointing in the wrong direction to be a threat to anyone except migrating birds and high-altitude mountaineers.[/quote]
Yes! I worry too much.
According to the picture, the Chinese jetfighter is against the mighty God.
:moo:
Actually that would be a Red Army Air Force Su27 not a PLAAF Su-27. Now Taiwan’s gotta worry about the J-12 Stealth Fighter, you can’t hit what you can’t see.
there will always be wars. the economic war preludes military war. so…as long as you share mutual business interests you can wage economic war together as allies. anyone who has ever been restricted to 0 choices and gotten soaked on “the golden route” from HK to TPE may be inclined that the int’l chinese are already coordinated to a great extent.
so…as long as chinese like to make money, no there will be no military war between china and taiwan. taiwan has renounced use of arms against china and have rescinded the pledge to “take back” the mainland.
china has pledged to defend taiwan if anyone else attacks. already allies. china has also stated the terms under which they would attack taiwan: declaration of independence. it was taiwan’s KMT/ROC that created and insisted upon the “one china” idea to begin with.
PS: your list of invaders was interesting. dutch, japanese, spanish, french.
how about mainland chinese? the KMT invaded and killed anyone educated enough to create a resistance. the minanese and the hakkas invaded. the killed the guys that didn’t run away to the mountains and married the local girls. you know the taiwanese saying: “we all have chinese grandfathers but no chinese grandmothers.” why? because the successive waves of expansion/refugees from china were mostly single guys.
[quote=“skeptic yank”]
PS: your list of invaders was interesting. dutch, Japanese, Spanish, french.
how about mainland Chinese? the KMT invaded and killed anyone educated enough to create a resistance. the minanese and the hakkas invaded. the killed the guys that didn’t run away to the mountains and married the local girls. you know the Taiwanese saying: “we all have Chinese grandfathers but no Chinese grandmothers.” why? because the successive waves of expansion/refugees from China were mostly single guys.[/quote]
Well, it’s the KMT and its army who defend Taiwan for 50 years and stop People’s Liberation Army from invading Taiwan after WWII and civil war of China. I know KMT is notorious for its corruption. But I am glad it’s the KMT “took over” Taiwan 50 years ago, not the communist.
It’s really sad to imagine myself growing up as a communist. 
Besides, the Korean War also helped. Without the Korean War, US Navy and its mighty carriers won’t help defend Taiwan.
You mean the plane in the picture is a “Russian” one, right?
I think you are right.
As with the J-12, some info here:
You guys aren’t giving this question the consideration it deserves. Not only do I have a wife here, but I own a home (and a sweet car!) here. If there is a war, I’ll lose the biggest investment I’ve ever made. Not to mention Taiwan has been my home for one-sixth of my life and is home to my in-laws and most of my close friends.
This question therefore weighs heavily on my mind…
Why worry about the planes? When China finishes it’s missile build-up they won’t need any planes to level Taiwan, one push of the button and Taiwan is history - no defense system can shoot them all down and assistance / intervention by a 3rd party would come too late.
[quote=“Vay”]You guys aren’t giving this question the consideration it deserves. Not only do I have a wife here, but I own a home (and a sweet car!) here. If there is a war, I’ll lose the biggest investment I’ve ever made. Not to mention Taiwan has been my home for one-sixth of my life and is home to my in-laws and most of my close friends.
This question therefore weighs heavily on my mind…[/quote]
The question weighs heavily on my mind too. It keeps me up some nights, not every night, but some nights. When I plan my future in Taiwan I don’t plan that far ahead, I am always planning my way out of here. Taiwan is a dangerous place to be, ok, so are other places, but for the most part my home in New Zealand is safe. New Zealand has that as a huge advantage.
So, these missiles across the strait - how accurate are they, and how destructive are the payloads (conventional warheads - not ABC)?
Say, to hit the presidential palace (or any other resonable target), how many would they have to fire to have a reasonable chance to hit, and how big would the destruction (radius of total, medium and little destruction) be if one managed to hit.
Would those 500 missiles be enough to paralyze the Taiwanese defenses long enough for the Chinese to launch jetfighters protecting troop transport planes? etc. etc. etc.
I am just asking for opinions from someone that know better than me…
I think that all China would have to do is destroy some key Taiwanese infrastructure, like some of the dams or a nuclear power plant and Taiwan would surrender. I don’t think they would invade in the conventional D-day manner. But just my thoughts, I’m feeling quite pessimistic about this whole thing. ‘Greaseball’ is going to go down in history as the president who lost Taiwan.
Hans
OK, so how many missiles will be needed to hit, and destroy a dam or a nuclear plant?
I am sure Lien & Soong would surrender, but I really don’t think Chen & Lu would even consider to do so. They have too much invested in opposing China, and too much to lose. Even if the govenment and military surrender, it would still be 20-30% of the population that would not give up so easily - sivil unrest etc.
From what I understand all the missles pointed at Taiwan are all conventional non-nuclear ballistic missles. Though I don’t know what payload sizes we are talking about.
you’re probably right about Greaseball, he’s gone this far. Why not go down with the ship.
Hans
…but can they hit anything they are pointing at???
-I mean, if they by accident just hit civilians, hilltops and rice patties, they will only be met with even greater anger.
Lien & Soong’s plans:
Win the election, ask China to send some missiles to destroy a dam or two, surrender in return of being appointed as Taiwan Province Supreme Leaders for life, and turning Taiwan into a quasi-communistic hellhole.