If China invaded, first they would already distract Japan with North Korea. So can’t go to Japan if they are busy fighting against North Korea.
As for Philippines - China has already thoroughly invaded the Philippines at all levels with possibly a million living and working there illegally - this has been a notorious issue which the government has tried to crack down on, but it never goes far enough for money reasons (see bribery allegations).
First of all, Taiwan is pretty vital for America’s control of the pacific. If a hot war starts in Taiwan against China America’s control for the pacific will be gone. Going to America in the event of a war would only delay things a little bit. If a hot war from China happens in Taiwan things have to have gotten so bad where America is unwilling or unable to assist.
If China can successfully invade Taiwan then it wouldn’t be hard for China to set their sights on Japan, Guam, Hawaii, etc.
The country is pretty much owned by China now, via their tried-and-tested methods. I suspect Chinese money is propping up the peso, because most macroeconomic considerations should have seen it aggressively devalued about six months ago.
Similar here as the OP: small pack with passport, documents, as much USD as one is allowed to take out, and some TWD. Oh, and cat stuff.
I believe any invasion would necessarily be preceded by visible preparations for many weeks, rather months. So, there is some chance that there would be enough time to get out, if one is willing to take the signs seriously. Not so sure if TWD would be useful in all scenarios, hence some USD to buy tickets. To europe, preferably - but mostly out first.
Why assume that though? As you pointed out in another thread if it comes it may well come in a surprising way, and they will want to get their way without destroying the place.
True I guess. but A saturation attack with no Invasion to follow up would be a bit pointless, no? Thus I hope there would be some signs of troop build up way before any missile attack.
If there’s a silent takeover (from plants within the Taiwanese power structure), our fates are still not in our control. In the best case scenario, they’ll give all of us foreigners a pass by expelling us.
Otherwise, I think it comes down to two possibilities if China launches an attack:
It does so willing to risk confrontation with the US, in which case foreigners here are screwed.
It does so with some sort of knowledge/agreement that the US will not intervene. In this case, the best hope is that some arrangement is made to let foreigners leave.
I think Taiwanese are mostly pragmatic. If it’s the choice between submit or things get tough assuming China wins, it will end with Taiwan just submitting while being pissed about it similar to HK today.
To me it makes no sense to take over a place and destroy the thing that makes it special in the first place.
If china invades then I guess Taiwan will be too distracted to enforce the covid quarantine so i’ll make my way over from the UK and mass spread whilst drinking dragon fruit smoothies in the sunshine innit!
You’re assuming that Taiwanese have some say in the matter. They realistically don’t.
Taiwan is not HK. The history is totally different, and while you might think that it would be foolish for the CCP to destroy the Taiwan that exists today, I’d humbly suggest that the history leaves little doubt that the CCP doesn’t share your perspective about “[destroying] the thing that makes [Taiwan] special in the first place.”
Most of what us Westerners think makes Taiwan special don’t have the same positive value to the CCP.
Taiwanese absolutely do have a say in the matter. Unlike Hong Kong, they have missiles pointed at the mainland and can inflict severe damage on coastal cities. And if it were some kind of covert takeover from the inside, the conspiracy would have to be widespread to be effective which in itself would take a considerable amount of time. The Taiwanese didn’t just bend over with EFCA or any attempt to reduce barriers with China. Tens of thousands protested and occupied the legislature. The Taiwanese have a military, constitutional and legislative framework, unlike Hong Kong, that allows them to fight back.