In theory.
And do you think China’s infiltration efforts started yesterday?
The constitutional and legislative framework means shit in a war, and many analysts (perhaps the majority) have raised serious questions about the Taiwan military.
I could see some crazy/unconventional scenarios where China takes action designed to put such extreme pressure on Taiwan that it doesn’t need to invade conventionally.
For instance, China could try to stage a false flag event that gives it the pretext to engage in a limited attack or some sort of blockade in the name of defense.
Against the advice of the Americans, Taiwan is responding to virtually every Chinese incursion of its ADIZ and territorial waters, and that creates room for an “accident” that the Chinese can leverage.
If China engaged in a limited attack or some sort of blockade under a defensive justification, it would force Taiwan and the US/allies to show their hands very, very quickly.
Seem impossible for China to pull this off? It’s established fact that the Chinese covered up the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, which led to pandemic. And the world hasn’t done shit.
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That’s better than the theory that a missile defense system could stop all of them when they can travel 1000 miles with a 500 lb warhead.
Do you think the Taiwanese defense strategy started yesterday? Or the US strategic interests in the pacific? Silly questions get silly questions back.
Your quote above. Silent takeovers don’t happen overnight and the constitution and legislative framework is what will prevent that. A lack of which basically spelled the end for Hong Kong.
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Hint: just because Taiwan could inflict damage on China doesn’t mean that China won’t be willing to make the trade. In fact, the CCP might see Taiwan fighting back as being desirable.
I don’t put much stock in “Taiwanese defense strategy” given the consensus among Western military experts that Taiwan has been underinvesting in its defense capabilities for years and has an underwhelming military. Hell, most Taiwanese look down on their military and young Taiwanese try to avoid conscription if they’re in a position to do so.
As for US strategic interests, I certainly wouldn’t bet my life on the US playing white knight. As an American in Taiwan, I fully accept the reality that even if the US comes to Taiwan’s aid, it doesn’t mean that foreigners here are all going to be rescued by SEALs the minute shots are fired.
First, HK belonged to China. Second, Hong Kong has a mini-constitution (the Basic Law) and an elected Legislative Council.
You seem to be under the impression that a “silent takeover” requires full control over the elected government. It doesn’t. In principle, the ability to control a relatively small number of people in key positions in bodies like the military is sufficient.
Reading this thread made me backed up a little in planning to retire in Taiwan when I get old lol (我是外國人 btw) but I do love Taiwan! If it will happen in my timeline, I would really have no idea what would I do cos I’m not even a citizen of this country. China would probably just kick me all over the place.
If an invasion ever happens, I just hope that the Taiwanese people wont lose their values, morals and their identity.
Come on. HKs constitution meant nothing as we just saw. Elected officials are approved by the CCP basically.
At the end of the day, China would have taken Taiwan by now if they could. The military balance has shifted, no one denies that and Taiwan should definitely invest more in the military. But it’s not like China can take the island, because they would have by now.
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The fact that so many Taiwanese actually believe that is itself a reason to be concerned.
The status quo is untenable and the issue of Taiwan is going to be resolved one way or the other. The paths through which it gets resolved without some sort of conflict that causes great disruption to the people living in Taiwan decrease every year.
That’s debatable, but it’s an entirely different kettle of fish anyway. Any kind of forcable takeover will have to involve obviously overt acts.
I think you have a good point about some kind of decapitating move designed to take out, undermine, or co-opt leadership. There might be a lot of possibilities in that vein. Taiwan needs to stay constantly vigilant.
Why? I think most Taiwanese understand the shift in military advantages is happening. We need to up our defenses. But the reality is, this is nothing new. PRC has been talking about this for the last 3 generations. The ROC the 2 generations before taking the mainland.
The threat of the invasion isn’t new. China wants Taiwan and they currently can’t take it. That can change if the shift in military might continues. But a defense is at the side of the advantaged.
It would only be a worry if Taiwanese think that just because they haven’t been able to take the island doesn’t mean they couldn’t in the future.
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you clearly can’t see very well
You never thought about this before ? 
I’ll say it again: my species is superior to yours, but the ones among us who want to conquer your planet are incompetent fools.
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I think anybody that has an invasion plan is Weird as having a nuclear shelter in you back garden.
Saying your not killed in artillery fire on the cities, foreigners will allowed to go, why would China want westerners stay in Taiwan and be a total pain in the Ass.
Because under many of the realistic attack/invade/takeover scenarios, China has to accept the risk of all-out conflict with the US and its allies, and has to use the element of surprise to have a chance at success.
By warning foreigners to leave, China would give up the element of surprise. After an attack has started, critical infrastructure, such as airport runways, is likely to be destroyed.
A lot of foreigners here wouldn’t want to leave if China took over. We would however like to avoid being bombed or shot up in the street, so having a plan to bug out somewhere in the countryside till things calm down is not so crazy. My wife wouldn’t want to leave Taiwan, or take our daughter abroad, so for us it would be about surviving rather than escaping.
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I don’t understand this thinking.
I’m genuinely curious: if the Chinese were successful in taking Taiwan, what do you think they’re going to do after “things calm down”? Is there really an expectation that they would let life for Taiwanese return to some semblance of what it looks like today?
I am fairly surprised…perhaps that’s not the best term…of the number of people who don’t have bags prepared for earthquakes and things of that sort, let alone for a foreign invasion.
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