Sounds like a good Forumosa topic What’s in your go-bag?
I was thinking of that when I was posted but was on my phone and didn’t feel like a search.
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She may do when China running the country?
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We have discussed it at length, and because of her responsibilities here it wouldn’t be possible for us to leave Taiwan indefinitely together, at least whilst her parents are still around.
The massive expansion of the sub fleet is the smartest military decision by Taiwan in the last 30 years. The perfect asymmetrical weapon platform vs an invasion fleet. Granted, they will take some years to reach operational status, but neither is China in reality ready to invade any time soon.
Run to the hills.
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I read Taiwan is building their own sub fleet rather than buy WWII junk from the US (it’s not like they’re going to sell us Los Angeles class subs).
They have recently unveiled some missile boats carrying (hopefully) hypersonic missiles.
Yep, domestic produced (since everybody is scared to sell to Taiwan) which ofc is a boon for jobs and tech advancement.
Big question is can they manage to instigate a sub programme from scratch? I suppose there will be enough “leaks” from Germany, US etc that the project will be feasible.
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Also, I thought it was really interesting to observe and learn what happened during the evacuation of foreign nationals from Wuhan at the start of the pandemic.
There was a real fight to get on those planes, and I’m pretty sure some foreign nationals had to leave their spouses behind as they didn’t have the same passports as their partners.
I think there are definite advantages of being on the same passport as your spouse and children… (unless you want to leave them behind haha!!)
Wondering how many Taiwanese spouses of (foreign National) posters on this site have a foreign passport?
How many would actually leave if they did have the opportunity?
I suspect fewer than you’d estimate if logic was the deciding factor.
As I mentioned previously, anecdotally, a lot of Taiwanese seem to be under the impression that if China takes over, they’ll be permitted to go on living a similar life to the one they have now.
Makes me wonder about the history curriculum here.
That constitution will mean absolutely nothing if there’s an invasion. You will have no rule of law! Even worse , you’ll be subject to Chinese military courts. Which means death to foreigners
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Same response as to RBE. If your point is that there will be a silent takeover then the constitution is one of the best tools you have to prevent that from happening. Hong Kong can never have a legislative majority that isn’t controlled by the CCP. Taiwan has a representative democracy and not forced to have representation from the CCP. Clearly an advantage over Hong Kong.
If your argument is that the Chinese will instead conduct a military invasion and not a silent takeover, then certainly knocking down a tower in Pudong will shatter the image of invincibility and stability that the CCP is so reliant on. Taiwan is a convenient distraction from other social/economic ills. A costly invasion would break that facade. And I don’t buy the US would just give up strategic control to China. They have no motivation to do that either.
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why?
This is wishful thinking that ignores the reality: the CCP’s propaganda machine has already brainwashed large numbers of Chinese citizens into believing that Taiwan is a part of China and therefore armed conflict would be to preserve China’s interests, not expand them. In other words, war would be defensive, not imperialistic.
Taiwan defending itself would not shatter some imaginary image of invincibility and stability, but rather would serve as “proof” for the CCP that the people in charge of Taiwan (read: Taiwan’s elected government) were a secessionist force. It would be far more likely to unite the Chinese than deter them.
As for the US, you’re right. The US doesn’t want to let China take over Taiwan. But I wouldn’t bet my life on the notion that it will be willing to defend Taiwan at any cost.
The sorry truth is that many care more about money than anything else. And they think that won’t be affected.
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American military planners don’t believe China can mount a surprise invasion. It’d be detectable six months in advance.
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Currently, a full-scale amphibious assault would be a massive and risk undertaking requiring significant visible preparation, but there’s a lot China could do short of this that would make life difficult for Taiwan, erode its capacity and will to fight, and test the commitment of the international community to defend Taiwan.
The ongoing gray zone warfare is bleeding $1 billion USD annually from Taiwan’s defense budget. The Americans have advised Taiwan not to respond to every incursion of its ADIZ but Taiwan insists on doing this.
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/hongkong-taiwan-military/
Before China ever considered launching a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, it would almost certainly take some of the outer islands. According to the US DOD:
The PLA is capable of accomplishing various amphibious operations short of a full-scale invasion of Taiwan as well. With few overt military preparations beyond routine training, China could launch an invasion of small Taiwan-occupied islands in the South China Sea such as Pratas or Itu Aba. A PLA invasion of a medium-sized, better-defended island such as Matsu or Jinmen is within China’s capabilities. Such an invasion would demonstrate military capability, political resolve, and achieve tangible territorial gain while simultaneously showing some measure of restraint. However, this kind of operation involves significant, and possibly prohibitive, political risk because it could galvanize pro-independence sentiment on Taiwan and generate international opposition.
Regarding the “significant, and possibly prohibitive, political risk because it could galvanize pro-independence sentiment on Taiwan and generate international opposition”, the majority of Taiwanese already see themselves as independent. And as for “international opposition”, if this is anything like the international condemnation of China’s coverup of the Wuhan virus, actions in Hong Kong, aggression on the Indian border, etc., I don’t think China will give a shit.