How many days could Taiwan defend itself before missiles/supplies run short?
I would hedge a bet the CCP would take out electricity, telecommunications and water before thinking of any troop movement.
This is silly now.
You have one survey that asked directly if the US should take military action to defend Taiwan in a Chinese attack. Only 35% of respondents said yes.
Then you have another survey that asked about the relative importance of the US defending allies if they come under threat from China. The average response for Taiwan was 6.69 on a scale of 1-10 where 1 represented taking āno riskā and 10 represented taking āconsiderable riskā. What each point on that scale meant to every respondent is obviously completely subjective, as is āthreat from Chinaā means.
If you canāt see thatā¦
In any case, pick the survey that makes you feel better. The reality is that nobody knows what would happen.
Well the conventional wisdom is that the preparations China would need to make to stage a full amphibious invasion would require months of preparation and these activities would be visible.
So the idea of bleeding Taiwan dry before mounting the invasion might not be realistic.
But there are plenty of unconventional scenarios that China is probably thinking about that would allow it to achieve strategic aims without making a massive binary (win/lose) bet.
Already, the gray zone warfare China is engaging in is quite effective and itās a bit telling that Taiwan is already largely ignoring the advice of the US on that front.
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I donāt think the U.S. is going to send troops. Just bomb, and get Japan and Australia to bomb.
There are a lot of military personnel in my area. One Navy engineer I talked to is pretty confident the U.S. will take action. He also noted that China hasnāt fought a war in who knows how long.
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Yes, trade is still important, no surprise there. Thereās a lot of room between ānothingā and ācomplete blockadeāā¦
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My attitude is similar to what you and @olm wrote above. We put together a small backpack (two, actually) a couple of months ago in the run-up to the U.S. election (mostly at my girlfriendās insistence - Iām not sure personally how useful the bags would be in the event of anything happening, but itās definitely helped with her worrying/complaining about it, and ergo my stress levels).
The bags contain:
- passports
- some irreplaceable documents
- some USD (I should probably get more, or some JPY/CNY). I tend to keep a fair amount of TWD on me anyway, since I almost entirely use cash and donāt like to go to the ATM too often.
- a first aid kit and basic medicines
- a few masks (N95 and surgical)
- a couple of days of food (tinned tuna/fruit, instant noodles, cereal bars, etc.). I may actually have eaten the instant noodles and cereal bars already - I should replace those.
- a small amount of camping stuff (tiny camping stove/pans/gas cylinder/lighters, multi-tool, knives, torches, emergency blankets)
- some bottled water (probably not enough, tbh - if there was any kind of warning Iād probably throw the above small backpack in a bigger backpack with one or two 6-liter bottles of water we have sitting around in case of typhoons etc.)
I did think about a physical map, but I also know that if we have to for some reason make it to Nantou or whatever through the mountains weāre probably screwed anyway. 
I did also consider some of the things that others have mentioned (better face masks, water purification tablets, pepper spray, etc.), but figured those might be entering paranoia territory.
Iām not sure about the best immediate (hours/days) strategy. My assumption was that Taoyuan airport would be put out of service pretty rapidly in the event of an invasion and, even if it wasnāt, getting commercial flights out would quickly become close to impossible and cost-prohibitive (not to mention a lot of Taiwanese suddenly realizing theyāre actually American or Canadian and wanting to go home). Iād probably first want to get to some shelter/less populated area (riverside park/MRT station/emergency shelter - is there a list/map of those somewhere?) and then away from Taipei, but Iām not sure how feasible any of those things would be.
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Until it comes time to send their kids overseas. The ones surveyed probably donāt even have any family in the military
A small minority of Americans do. Thatās why its virtually costless for the US to keep going to war.
The US canāt afford to do nothing about Chinese aggression.
Whatās at stake is all the NATO countries, if they believe the US would do nothing about Taiwan then what are the chances they will do something when Russia attacks them?
It would end faith in the US and their hegemonic power would end.
You canāt always just bomb the other country. Do you really believe that the US could launch a bombing campaign against China and that China would not have a response?
And āget Japan to bombā? Youāre joking, right?
A Navy engineer you talked to thinks the US would take action? Phew! That eliminates all doubt then.
This is perhaps Chinaās biggest weakness. But that doesnāt mean that China isnāt capable of inflicting damage. Taiwanās military is untested too and has less training than Chinaās.
The US is responding to Chinese aggression and thereās every reason to believe it will continue to do so. But itās unwise to assume that this guarantees Taiwanās safety.
As for NATO, the US relationship with NATO is not like that of the US and Taiwan. And if you havenāt been paying attention, the US has done very little in response to Russiaās recent adventures in Eastern Europe. Remember Crimea? Russia annexed it and the US didnāt do a thing.
The idea that war is ācostlessā because most Americans donāt have immediate family in the military is, for lack of a better word, stupid.
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Ukraine isnāt in NATO, is it?
Itās pretty much last resort food. I got it sent from the us
No, but it has had a relationship with NATO since the 90s and was on the path to membership before Yanukovych was elected.
Ukraine is of geopolitical importance to both the EU and US (and therefore NATO), so the fact that Russia was able to annex Crimea with little more than international condemnation and sanctions speaks to the reality that the US isnāt always going to stick its neck out militarily just because it has the capability to do so.
Werenāt moves by Ukraine towards NATO and the EU the reason Russia moved in while the moving was good? Same with the āseparatistā area, Russia stirred up some trouble to put Ukraine it its place. There isnāt really a Ukrainian equivalent to the strategic ambiguity which Taiwan has in its favour.
But generally, I agree with you that
3-1 is to usually the figure quoted to take a defensive position. Taking an island would be entirely different.
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This is true, although Taiwanās moves towards the US could create a somewhat similar dynamic. The question is whether China has the balls to make a move.
Iāve thought a lot about this and Iām not sure that the strategic ambiguity is all that good a thing anymore now that Chinaās military capabilities have grown and itās getting more aggressive in flexing its muscle in the region.
The situation has changed and I think for every advantage strategic ambiguity confers to Taiwan and the US, it also confers an advantage to China.
The fear and uncertainty of the current environment is untenable. Something has to give one way or the other. While itās true that Taiwan effectively functions as a sovereign internally, externally, itās excluded from so much and there are always whispers about its fate. Thatās not healthy long-term.
So, no F35s!
Youāre not the only one. The problem here, I think, with any deviation from the status quo, is that nobody knows how the other side will react. And as you mentioned, because of domestic politics the US doesnāt want to promise to go to war with China in any scenario. If there is a better choice than strategic ambiguity at this point, Iām not sure what that would look likeā¦
Well, I think it starts with Taiwan getting serious about the fact that the threat is real. Iāve been to a lot of places in the world that are involved in some sort of conflict and the level of apathy and denial here is pretty unique in my experience.